Purdue Boilermakers vs. Duke Blue Devils Prediction: March 26th 2010

Purdue seems to in fine shape after surging past Texas A&M in the second round. Even without Robbie Hummel, the name most often used in March Madness betting debates, injured for the entire tournament the fourth-seeded Boilermakers have been making plenty of noise in the South Region. If they can somehow find a way to muscle past Duke, everyone will stop thinking that this team can’t make it to the promised land without the versatile Hummel.

Small ball almost never wins in March Madness betting, but has successfully rolled out a lineup that boasts a lineup of guys under 6-foot-6 to victory. Entering the tournament with a 0-6-1 ATS record did nothing to bolster any hopes that Purdue would be any match for their opponents in the tournament or the oddsmakers.

But here they stand at 2-0 SU/ATS overcoming a +2.0 line against them in a 63-61 victory over a sternly talented Aggies team. They’ve shown the type of resolve that you’d hope and expect out of a champion, and all the while they’ve done so with a chip on their shoulder.

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Yet Duke has been a team that has feasted on teams that don’t pose any true threat in the frontcourt. While it’s easy to hope that Purdue will keep the good times rolling for their basketball betting backers, their March Madness championship dreams are headed towards nightmare territory. The Blue Devils are matchup nightmare for any team that wishes to play small ball with them.

The biggest threat to Purdue’s continued perseverance stands at 7-foot-1 and is named Brian Zoubek. The vindictive center for the Blue Devils scored 14-points and hauled down a game-high 13 rebounds against the California Golden Bears. Zoubek’s mere presence is going to make the thought of dishing the ball underneath, or driving the line, unthinkable.

Zoubek isn’t alone in the height department. Brothers Mason and Miles Plumlee, along with forward Ryan Kelly, all stand at 6-foot-10. Rebounding will be a struggle for the Boilermakers. They ranked just 259th in the country with only 32.2 rebounds per game on foreign territory.

So if Purdue wants to make this a shootout, they’re going to have to be red hot. Senior guard Jon Scheyer is a very capable point man, and he’s a lethal shooter when he gets going. Though he’s only averaged 10.0 points per game in March Madness, he hasn’t really needed to take over games since Duke is playing so damn well. They’ve beaten both of their opponents so far by an average margin of 22.0 points.

Duke is also 2-0 SU/ATS thus far in the tournament and the oddsmakers have just missed the mark when pegging a betting line for the Blue Devils. Scheyer and company covered a -24.5 point line in the first round with a score of 73-44. Then they more than doubled the spread against California, a -6.5 point line that was cleared by +8.5 points.

As far as bets go, Duke looks like one of the best bets thus far. They have a pancake South Region to compete in and have decimated all comers so far. With Hummel, this would be a completely different lineup, but until Duke give me a reason to doubt them in March Madness betting, they clearly have my vote.

Furious Free Pick: Duke -8.5 (OVER)
Article Written By: Tim Furious
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3. Virginia Tech vs. Duke Odds, Pick & ATS Trends: February 21st 2010