Why Outfielder Jay Bruce of the Cincinnati Reds Will Hit 35 Home Runs in 2010
In 2008, Jay Bruce ranked among the top prospects in baseball. In fact, Baseball America claimed, โevery one of (his) tools is better than average.โ
Our friends atย BA rated his power as high as a 70 on the 20-80 scouting scale, acknowledged his ability to hit for average, and even proclaimed Bruce capable of stealing 15 to 20 bases a season.
Two years later, Bruce appears primed for stardom, though most fantasy managers donโt realize it.
The 2005 first rounder posted a lowly .223 batting average in 2009, which explains the limited fanfare. What most donโt realize is that Bruce posted the second-lowest BABIP among players with 350-plus plate appearances last season. This suggests an increase in batting average is on the horizon.
If youโre able to buy into the low BABIP theory, thereโs no reasonย to notย like this guy. Consider the following:
* The soon-to-be 23-year-old Bruce has averaged 17.6 at-bats between HRs during two seasons at the big league level. Comparatively, Miguel Cabrera owns a career mark of 18.8 at-bats per HR.
* Bruce hit 22 HRs in just 345 at-bats in 2009. Projected over 600 at-bats, his HR total is a whopping 38.
* Despite his unlucky struggles at the plate last season, Bruce increased his walks and decreased his strikeouts from 2008. He also swung less at pitches outside the strike zone and made contact on pitches within the zone at a higher rate.
Despite missing two months last season with a broken wrist, Bruce returned toย hit .326 with four long balls and 17 RBI in 18 games upon his late-season return from the DL.
The big lefty has picked up where he left off this spring, totaling two HRs, three steals, and aย .333 batting average in 30 at-bats.
Given a full season batting fifth or sixth in the potent Cincinnati lineup, the Texas native appears primed to smash 35 HRs. Baseball statistician Bill James agrees, predicting a lofty 38-HR total.
Bruceโs current ADP on Mock Draft Central is 120, meaning Michael Bourn, Jason Bartlett, andย Alexei Ramirez are all being drafted ahead of him. Donโt make this mistake in your drafts; nab the soon-to-be top 50 keeper before itโs too late.
FBI Forecast: 550 at-bats, 75 runs, 35 HRs, 90 RBI, 10 stolen bases, .275 batting average
ORIGINAL ARTICLE: FANTASY BASEBALL INSIDERS
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