Fishing in the Bowl: Food City 500 Fantasy Advice

Track Stats:

Name: Bristol Motor Speedway

Race Date: March 20, 2010

Location: Bristol, Tennessee

Length: 0.533-mile oval

Banking in the turns: 36 degrees

Banking on the frontstretch: 16 degrees

Banking on the backstretch: 36 degrees

Race Length: 266.5 miles/500 laps

Active Win Leader: Kurt Busch and Jeff Gordon with five

Qualifying Record: Ryan Newman, Dodge, 128.709mph (14.908 seconds), March 21, 2003

Tickets/track info: http://www.bristolmotorspeedway.com or 423-989-6900

March 2009 Winner: Kyle Busch

Last year, Kyle Busch stole the show at Bristol Motor Speedway. He won the spring race by leading 378 of the 503 laps to beat teammate Denny Hamlin by .391 seconds in a green-white-checkered finish.

Top 10

1. Kyle Busch
2. Denny Hamlin
3. Jimmie Johnson
4. Jeff Gordon
5. Kasey Kahne
6. Mark Martin
7. Ryan Newman
8. Jeff Burton
9. Juan Pablo Montoya
10. Marcos Ambrose

August 2009 Winner: Kyle Busch

Kyle Busch out ran Mark Martin in a four lap shootout—cleanly run—to the checkered after a red flag for rain.

Driver Rating from 2009 Food City 500

NASCAR.com has a driver rating system that is supposed to help in picking who is a good fantasy choice.

Their formula combines the following categories: wins, finishes, top-15 finishes, average running positions while on lead lap, average speed under green, fastest lap, most laps led, and lead-lap finishes. The maximum points one driver can obtain for one race is 150 points. For more specific information and further understanding, please visit nascar.com.

Here are the top 10 drivers and their ratings following the 2009 Food City 500

1. Kyle Busch with 149.2
2. Jimmie Johnson with 123.6
3. Denny Hamlin with 119.6
4. Jeff Gordon with 109
5. Ryan Newman with 108.9
6. Marcos Ambrose with 108.4
7. Kasey Kahne with 107.4
8. Mark Martin with 101.5
9. David Reuitmann with 97.4
10. Juan Pablo Montoya with 94.8

Good Picks:

Kyle Busch

Already established throughout, Kyle Busch is a pick that should be on everybody’s radar. In addition to winning both races last year, he also won a race in the spring of 2008 and backed it up with a second place finish to Carl Edwards in the summer.

In comparing Busch to his fellow active drivers at Bristol, he has the second highest average finish (10.2) with a total of three wins, five top-fives and seven top-10s in 10 starts.

When you look at the short tracks overall, Busch ranks second in earning points when all six races are totaled (986) last year with an average finish of sixth, five top-fives, and five top-10s.

Kurt Busch

Kurt Busch is one of the two active win leaders with five wins and seems to have a special connection with Bristol, despite not having the best stats overall.

In comparing Busch to his fellow active drivers at Bristol, his average finish doesn’t even rank in the top 10 and he failed to finish in the top 10 last year in March.

When you look at the short tracks overall, Busch ranks seventh in earning points when all six races are totaled (799) last year with an average finish of 11.2, one top-five, and two top-10s.

My advice would be careful in picking Busch despite his wins as you never know if he’ll show his true Bristol strength or not.

Jeff Gordon

Jeff Gordon is the other active win leader with five wins and has had his fair share of success at Bristol in his 34 races there. Gordon seems to always be a factor and has also been involved in one of the most memorable moments from Bristol.

In comparing Gordon to his fellow active drivers at Bristol, he has the forth highest average finish (11.6) with a total of five wins, 14 top-fives, and 20 top-10s in 34 starts.

When you look at the short tracks overall, Gordon ranks fifth in earning points when all six races are totaled (896) last year with an average finish of 7.8, four top-fives, and five top-10s.

Denny Hamlin

Denny Hamlin is a driver who is good at all of the short tracks, gaining the most points of any of his fellow drivers at all the tracks combined last year. Hamlin has won races at Martinsville and Richmond, though he has yet to check Bristol off of the list.

In comparing Hamlin to his fellow active drivers at Bristol, he has the fifth highest average finish (11.6) with a total of three top-fives and five top-10s in eight starts.

When you look at the short tracks overall, Hamlin ranks first in earning points when all six races are totaled (1,031) last year with an average finish of 4.2, five top-fives, and five top-1s.

Two Other Key Picks

• Marcos Ambrose—In his two starts at Bristol, Ambrose has finished 10th and third.
• Kevin Harvick—With Harvick off to a good start in 2010, Bristol should continue his streak as he has 11 top-10s there in 18 starts, including a win in 2005.

Tips:

Jimmie Johnson is good everywhere, though be weary of picking him for Bristol as it hasn’t been a highlight for him.

With Bristol being tight and it being easy to get into somebody else’s mess, be sure to watch qualifying. Somebody who is good may have a bad qualifying run and therefore hurt their chances from the start.

Stories to Watch:

The No. 88 Team Comeback—Dale Earnhardt Jr. is not recognized as a good short track racer, however his average finishes at the three short tracks are better than those that he has at the restrictor plate races. With the No. 88 team on the turn around, could this be where he gets his first top-10 or even a win of the year?

Payback—Payback is a wonderful thing and Bristol is a track where drivers like to dish it. Watch certain drivers when they’re running around each other as they may just spin each other out due to something in the past. Could Brad Keselowski get back at Carl Edwards? Could Denny Hamlin and Keselowski have another incident?

Wing/Spoiler—The wing debuted in March of 2007 at Bristol with Kyle Busch winning the race and then saying in Victory Lane that he still didn’t like the COT. The wing will be run for the final time at Bristol in 2010 as come next week at Martinsville, the spoiler will be back on the car to the delight of the majority of the fans and drivers.