NCAA Tournament Picks: Northern Iowa vs. UNLV: March 18th 2010
Northern Iowa vs. UNLV
Free Pick: UNLV -1 (March 18th – John Ryan)
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The 8/9 matchups are always very competitive games and very hard to predict consistently. The sports handicapping model shows a 5* graded play on UNLV. Supporting this graded play is a series of game dependent angles based on the model projections. Here is just one, but under scores the theme that UNLV will be able to run and shooting above 40%. UNLV is 8-4 ATS this season, 24-9 ATS the past 3 seasons, and 67-39 ATS since 1997 when shooting between 40 and 46%. UNLV HC Kruger is also very good at preparing his team for an anticipated close game. Note that he is 31-12 ATS (+17.8 Units) when the line is +3 to -3; 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in road games versus teams who average 6 or less steals/game on the season after 15+ games in all games he has coached. UNLV is also in solid roles based on their recent schedule and results. UNLV is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in road games after playing a game as favorite this season.
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Based on the projections I also like a 3* amount on the first half line. There is no doubt in my mind that UNLV will want to put as much pressure on the Ni defense as possible. By looking run on every possible transition fatigue will become a factor and NI defenders will get out of position allowing for high percentage shots by UNLV. NI did very well in conference play and statistically has a very strong defense. The emphasis is on the word statistically as they will have enormous difficulty defending the quickness and athleticism of the Rebels. Here is a first half system that under scores these points and more. It has gone 50-20 ATS for 71.4% winners since 1997. Play against neutral court teams versus the 1st half line after allowing 65 points or less 5 straight games facing an opponent after a loss by 10 points or more. Take UNLV.
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