Breaking Down the NCAA Tournament Field: 65 Teams—Who's Missing?

UPDATED AS OF MARCH 9, 2010 (Updated Daily!)

When it comes to the tournament, there are some teams that are locks, some that are uncertain, and others that are REALLY uncertain.

I'm going to singlehandedly break it down for you and show you who should be in and who should be out—all of which is debatable.

TEAMS LOCKED IN (37 Teams)

ACC: Clemson, Duke, Maryland
Atlantic Sun: East Tennessee State
Atlantic 10: Richmond, Temple, Xavier
Big East: Georgetown, Marquette, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Villanova, West Virginia
Big South: Winthrop
Big Ten: Purdue, Michigan State, Ohio State, Wisconsin
Big 12: Baylor, Kansas, Kansas State, Missouri, Texas, Texas A&M
Colonial: Old Dominion
Horizon: Butler
Ivy: Cornell
MAAC: Siena
Missouri Valley: Northern Iowa
Mountain West: BYU, New Mexico
Ohio Valley: Murray State
SEC: Kentucky, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
SOCON: Wofford
West Coast: Gonzaga, St. Mary's

CURRENT CONFERENCE LEADERS (15 teams)

America East: Vermont
Big Sky: Weber State
Big West: UC Santa Barbara
C-USA: UTEP
MAC: Kent State or Akron (your toss-up)
MEAC: Morgan State
Northeast: Quinnipiac
Pac-10: California
Patriot: Lehigh
Southland: Sam Houston State
SWAC: Jackson State
Summit: Oakland
Sun Belt: Troy
WAC: Utah State

With that being said, there are 52 teams already locked in. Here is a breakdown of what should be the rest of the order.

100 PERCENT SAFE TEAMS

53. Oklahoma State (21-9) Big 12 (9-7)

Oklahoma State has key wins against Kansas, Kansas State, Texas A&M, and Baylor. RPI: 28 SOS: 30

54. Wake Forest (19-9) ACC (9-7)

Wake Forest has key wins against Xavier, Maryland, Richmond, Clemson, Georgia Tech, and Gonzaga. RPI: 31 SOS: 29

55. Florida State (22-8) ACC (10-6)

Florida State has key wins against Georgia Tech, Wake Forest, Marquette, and Virginia Tech. Seven wins in the RPI top 100. RPI: 34 SOS: 46

56. UNLV (22-7) Mountain West (11-5)

UNLV has key wins against New Mexico, BYU, Louisville, and San Diego State. RPI: 47 SOS: 103

57. Louisville (20-11) Big East (11-7)

Louisville has key wins against Syracuse, Connecticut, Cincinnati, Notre Dame, and South Florida. RPI: 30 SOS: 4

BREAKING OUT OF THE BUBBLE

58. Georgia Tech (18-11) ACC (7-9)

Georgia Tech has key wins against Duke, Wake Forest, Clemson, Siena, and Charlotte. RPI: 44 SOS: 19

59. Rhode Island (21-8) Atlantic 10 (9-7)

Rhode Island has key wins against Oklahoma State, Dayton, and Charlotte. RPI: 39 SOS: 78

60. Florida (20-11) SEC (9-7)

Florida has key wins against Tennessee, Michigan State, Florida State, Mississippi, and Mississippi State. RPI: 51 SOS: 32

BUBBLE INS

61. Mississippi (21-9) SEC (9-7)

Mississippi has key wins against Kansas State and UTEP. RPI: 57 SOS: 73

62. Dayton (19-11) Atlantic Ten (8-8)

Dayton has key wins against Xavier, Georgia Tech, Old Dominion, and Charlotte. RPI: 52 SOS: 35

63. Notre Dame (21-10) Big East (10-8)

Notre Dame has key wins against Georgetown, Pittsburgh, West Virginia, Connecticut, Cincinnati, Marquette, and South Florida. RPI: 59 SOS: 53

64. San Diego State (20-8) Mountain West (11-5)

San Diego State has key wins against New Mexico and UNLV. RPI: 35 SOS: 70

65. Virginia Tech (23-7) ACC (10-6)

Virginia Tech has key wins against Wake Forest, Georgia Tech, Clemson, and Seton Hall. RPI: 50 SOS: 128

FIRST FIVE OUT

66. Connecticut (17-14) Big East (7-11)

Connecticut has key wins against Villanova, West Virginia, Texas, Notre Dame, and Seton Hall. RPI: 54 SOS: 3

67. Charlotte (19-11) Atlantic 10 (9-7)

Charlotte has key wins against Temple, Richmond, and Louisville. RPI: 66 SOS: 75

68. Washington (21-9) Pac-10 (11-7)

Washington has key wins against Texas A&M, California, and Arizona State. RPI: 49 SOS: 60

69. UAB (23-7) C-USA (11-5)

UAB has key wins against Butler and Cincinnati. RPI: 41 SOS: 94

70. Seton Hall (18-11) Big East (9-9)

Seton Hall has key wins against Pittsburgh, Louisville, Cincinnati, Cornell, and Notre Dame. RPI: 55 SOS: 31

LOTS OF WORK TO DO

71. Memphis (22-8) C-USA (12-3)

Memphis has key wins against UAB. RPI: 46 SOS: 79

72. Illinois (18-13) Big Ten (10-8)

Illinois has key wins against Vanderbilt, Wisconsin, Michigan State, and Clemson. RPI: 71 SOS: 47

73. South Florida (18-11) Big East (9-9)

South Florida has key wins against Pittsburgh, Seton Hall, Georgetown, and Cincinnati. RPI: 63 SOS: 54

74. Arizona State (21-9) Pac-10 (12-6)

Arizona State has key wins against San Diego State and Washington. RPI: 53 SOS: 70

75. Wichita State (25-9) Missouri Valley (12-6)

Wichita State has key wins against Northern Iowa and Texas Tech. RPI: 45 SOS: 101

76. Cincinnati (16-14) Big East (7-11)

Cincinnati has key wins against Vanderbilt, Maryland, Connecticut, and Notre Dame. RPI: 68 SOS: 9

Teams Currently At-Large Leading Conferences Who Can Still Place Bid With Loss in Conference Tournament

California (21-9) (13-5) (BREAKING OUT THE BUBBLE, either 59 or 60)

California has key wins against Washington and Arizona State. RPI: 22 SOS: 9

Kent State (23-8) (12-3) (LOTS OF WORK TO DO, either 76 or lower)

Kent State has a key win against UAB. RPI: 42 SOS: 88

UTEP (24-5) (15-1) (BUBBLE-INS 58 or 59)

UTEP has key wins against UAB, Memphis, and New Mexico State. RPI: 43 SOS: 131

 
Utah State (24-6) (14-2) (BUBBLE-INS, either 57 or 58)

Utah State has key wins against BYU and Wichita State. RPI: 33 SOS: 105