March Madness Bubble Talk: One Week Left...Who's In? Who's Out?

One thing is certain in the college basketball world as we conclude the regular season and head into Championship Week; this is one of the weakest bubbles in a long time.

Presumably, the bubble will shrink over the next few days as some upsets occur in conference tournaments around the country, but the last few spots into the field of 65 are wide open for the taking. With a week remaining before Selection Sunday, let's take a quick look at where we stand.


One-Bid Leagues (21)

Missouri Valley; WAC; CAA; Horizon; MAAC; MAC; Southern; Big Sky; Big West; Ohio Valley (Murray State); Ivy (Cornell); Sun Belt; Summit; America East; Atlantic Sun (East Tennessee State); Southland; Big South (Winthrop); Patriot; Northeast; MEAC; SWAC

Nothing out of the ordinary here. The bubble could potentially shrink by as much as four if Northern Iowa, Utah State, Old Dominion, and Butler all lose in their conference tournaments.


Multi-Bid and Bubble Leagues

ACC
Locks: Duke, Maryland, Clemson, Wake Forest, Florida State
Bubble In: Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech
Bubble Out: None

The ACC has sorted itself out nicely over the last week of the season. Florida State (32 RPI, 43 SOS) is not missing the field after beating Wake Forest at home and avoiding a slip-up at Miami and has moved up into lock status.

Virginia Tech (49 RPI, 128 SOS) is all but in after beating NC State at home and winning at Georgia Tech on Saturday. Barring a disastrous performance in their first ACC Tournament game, the Hokies will be dancing.

Georgia Tech (44 RPI, 19 SOS) is falling apart at the worst time, but should still have enough on their resume to feel fairly safe. The Yellow Jackets have missed out on many chances to lock up a bid, and if they lose their ACC First Round game, will really be sweating it out next Sunday.


Big East
Locks: Syracuse, Pittsburgh, Villanova, West Virginia, Georgetown, Louisville
Bubble In: Marquette, Notre Dame
Bubble Out: Seton Hall, South Florida, Connecticut, Cincinnati

Louisville (30 RPI, 4 SOS) is a lock after beating Syracuse to sweep the season series with the Orange.

It will be almost impossible to leave either Notre Dame (56 RPI, 52 SOS) or Marquette (58 RPI, 53 SOS) out of the Tournament with the way both teams have been playing. The Irish went into Marquette and beat the Golden Eagles in overtime on Saturday. Both teams are in great shape heading into this week's Big East Tournament.

South Florida (65 RPI, 54 SOS) stayed alive by beating fellow bubble team Connecticut (55 RPI, 3 SOS) at home on Saturday. The Bulls have a solid overall profile and are a couple of wins away from a bid. On the other side, Connecticut is in a very tough position with 11 Big East losses and 14 total losses. UConn needs to make some noise in the Big East Tournament to get in.

Seton Hall (54 RPI, 30 SOS) continued to beat the teams it should in winning at Providence on Saturday. The Pirates need to pick up a quality win or two in the Big East Tournament.

On the other hand, Cincinnati (68 RPI, 9 SOS) is all but out after getting blown out at Georgetown on Saturday. Like UConn, the Bearcats have 11 Big East losses and 14 total, but cannot match UConn's big wins this season


Big Ten
Locks: Purdue, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Ohio State
Bubble In: Illinois
Bubble Out: None

If Illinois (73 RPI, 49 SOS) loses today at home against Wisconsin, you can move the Illini into the Bubble Out category, and it would take some serious work in the Big Ten Tournament to move back up.


SEC
Locks: Kentucky, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
Bubble In: Florida, Ole Miss
Bubble Out: None

Mississippi State is off the board after yet another loss. Ole Miss (57 RPI, 71 SOS) finished the regular season with four straight wins, a rare accomplishment for this year's bubble group. The Rebels still need to do some work in the SEC Tournament, but the door is open.


Big 12
Locks: Kansas, Kansas State, Baylor, Texas A&M, Texas, Missouri, Oklahoma State
Bubble In: None
Bubble Out: None

Nothing to see here people.


Atlantic 10
Locks: Temple, Xavier, Richmond
Bubble In: None
Bubble Out: Rhode Island, Dayton

Sometimes, it sure seems like Rhode Island (40 RPI, 76 SOS) and Dayton (51 RPI, 34 SOS) don't want anything to do with the NCAA Tournament. Both schools suffered devastating losses yesterday, with Rhode Island losing at UMass and Dayton losing at home to Saint Louis. To get in, both might need to make it all the way to the Atlantic 10 Final.


Pac-10
Locks: None
Bubble In: California
Bubble Out: Arizona State

With the overall weakness of the bubble this year, Cal (19 RPI, 12 SOS) should have enough to get in even if they don't win the Pac-10 Tournament.

The weak bubble has also helped a team like Arizona State (52 RPI, 72 SOS), who will somehow be in the discussion with only three Top 100 RPI wins, even if they lose the Pac-10 Final.


Mountain West
Locks: New Mexico, BYU
Bubble In: UNLV, San Diego State
Bubble Out: None

A four-bid Mountain West is looking like a realistic possibility with both UNLV (47 RPI, 103 SOS) and San Diego State (33 RPI, 73 SOS) playing well to close out the regular season. Neither team can afford a quarterfinal slip-up in the Mountain West Tournament, but a trip to the semifinals might just be enough to get the Rebels and the Aztecs an at-large bid.


West Coast
Locks: Gonzaga
Bubble In: Saint Mary's
Bubble Out: None

Both Gonzaga and Saint Mary's (45 RPI, 142 SOS) will be in action tonight in the West Coast Conference semifinals. Saint Mary's cannot afford a loss tonight, and would need to play well against Gonzaga in the final to have any sense of security come a week from today.


Conference USA
Locks: None
Bubble In: UTEP, Memphis
Bubble Out: UAB

UTEP (36 RPI, 117 SOS) is playing extremely well lately, having won 14 in a row. The Miners have three Top 50 RPI wins and are 7-4 against the Top 100. Should they lose in the Conference USA Tournament this week, they will still make a good case to grab an at-large.

UAB (41 RPI, 94 SOS) may have thrown away an at-large chance with two losses this past week. The Blazers only have four wins versus the Top 100 and most likely need to win the conference tournament to get in.

Memphis (46 RPI, 79 SOS) has come out of nowhere to earn some at-large hope. The Tigers have two Top 50 wins and three losses outside the Top 100, but might be able to slip in if they lose a close Conference USA Final.