March Madness Bubble Talk: Weekend in Review

Let me be one of the first people to welcome you to the month of March. And what better way to ring in college basketball's best month then with a fresh dose of Bubble Talk.

Bubble Game of the Weekend

Notre Dame 78, Georgetown 64

Sometimes it's not only about who you beat, but when you beat them. On a weekend like this where so many bubble teams are in action battling for respect and recognition, no one could have impressed the Selection Committee more than the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (RPI: 68).

Credit goes to Notre Dame for playing so well in a big game, especially without Luke Harangody. But what the Irish did— win at Georgetown —is something that fellow bubble teams South Florida and Old Dominion also did this season.

Bracketologists and fans alike will be quick to throw the Irish into the field of 65 after the win, but don't ignore Notre Dame's mediocre 68 RPI, and their two losses outside the RPI Top 100. A loss in either of their last two games (vs. UConn, at Marquette) puts the Irish right back in the same situation they were in before Saturday, that is, needing to do some damage in the Big East Tournament.

Big East

Pecking Order: [IN: Syracuse, Villanova, West Virginia, Georgetown, Pittsburgh] (Bubble: Louisville, Marquette, UConn, Cincinnati, Notre Dame, Seton Hall, South Florida)
Weekend Bubble Results: Cincinnati - L at WVU; South Florida - W over Providence; Notre Dame - W at Georgetown; Louisville - W at UConn; UConn - L vs. Louisville; Marquette - W at Seton Hall; Seton Hall - L vs. Marquette

Cincinnati (RPI: 58) was in a very similar situation as Notre Dame on Saturday--playing a Top 15 RPI team on the road— but let a victory slip away at West Virginia. The Bearcats desperately need to win either against Villanova or at Georgetown this upcoming week, and like the Irish, will need to do some damage in the Big East Tournament.

South Florida (RPI: 67) staved off elimination by beating Providence on Saturday, but has to win their final two (at DePaul, vs. UConn) and pull off an upset in the Big East Tournament to have a shot.

In Sunday's action, Louisville (RPI: 32) is all but in after a big win at Connecticut. One more win in their last two (at Marquette, vs. Syracuse) will lock up a bid.

UConn (RPI: 44) really could have used a win over Louisville, and now has to travel to South Bend to take on surging Notre Dame and then finish up at South Florida. Two losses would be devastating for the Huskies at-large hopes.

The cardiac kids from Marquette (RPI: 50) won their third straight overtime game— all on the road—to put themselves in great position for a bid and seriously damage Seton Hall's chances on Sunday. Marquette has won eight of nine and still has two home games left (Louisville and Notre Dame). One more win ought to put the Golden Eagles in.

Seton Hall (RPI: 62) let a great opportunity to play their way into the NCAA Tournament slip through their fingers with Sunday's loss. The Hall must win at Rutgers and at Providence and do some major damage in the Big East Tournament to get back into the discussion.

Big Ten

Pecking Order: [IN: Purdue, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Ohio State] (Bubble: Illinois, Minnesota)
Weekend Bubble Results: Illinois - L vs. Minnesota; Minnesota - W at Illinois

Uh oh. I wrote last week that Illinois (RPI: 73) could potentially play its way out of the field with a few losses. I was not counting on a home loss to Minnesota being one of them. Now the Illini must play at Ohio State and vs. Wisconsin before playing probably either Wisconsin or Michigan State in the Big Ten quarterfinals. With that poor RPI, the Illini need wins badly at this point.

The Minnesota Golden Gophers (RPI: 70) are lucky to be included in the bubble picture at all. They did beat Butler, Ohio State, and Wisconsin; but lost three games outside the RPI Top 100. They should win out (at Michigan, vs. Iowa) and would probably need to make at least the Big Ten semifinals to have a shot.

ACC

Pecking Order: [IN: Duke, Maryland, Wake Forest, Clemson] (Bubble: Georgia Tech, Florida State, Virginia Tech)
Weekend Bubble Results: Georgia Tech - W vs. Boston College; Virginia Tech - L vs. Maryland; Florida State - L vs. Clemson

Georgia Tech (RPI: 32) is just about in with a solid RPI and a handful of quality wins. One more win, either at Clemson or vs. Virginia Tech, should seal the deal for the Yellow Jackets.

Virginia Tech (RPI: 52), on the other hand, is in a bit of trouble after losing three in a row. The Hokies probably can't afford another loss and could really use a big road win at Georgia Tech.

Florida State (RPI: 42) lost a tough game at home to Clemson on Sunday. The Seminoles are still in nice position with three wins against the RPI Top 50 and only one loss outside the Top 50. Florida State hosts Wake Forest and then travels to Miami to close the regular season. Two wins would lock the Seminoles into the field.

Big 12

Pecking Order: [IN: Kansas, Kansas State, Baylor, Texas A&M, Texas, Oklahoma State, Missouri]

The Big 12 is by far the easiest conference for bubble enthusiasts like myself to sort through. I feel confident that all seven tournament contenders are IN, with Missouri being the only one who might have to sweat it out on Selection Sunday with a few more losses.

SEC

Pecking Order: [IN: Kentucky, Tennessee, Vanderbilt] (Bubble: Florida, Mississippi State, Ole Miss)
Weekend Bubble Results: Florida - L at Georgia; Mississippi State - W at South Carolina; Ole Miss - W at Alabama

Perhaps the most exciting part of bubble season is when a team like Florida (RPI: 46) seemingly plays it way into the field, but then out of nowhere loses at Georgia to make it interesting once again. Now the Gators are left with a home game against Vanderbilt and a road trip to Kentucky. Two more losses there and the Gators will need to do some damage in the always-entertaining SEC Tournament to feel confident about themselves.

Both Mississippi schools did what they needed to do this weekend and picked up a couple of road wins. Both Ole Miss (RPI: 57) (vs. LSU, at Arkansas) and Mississippi State (RPI: 55) (at Auburn, vs. Tennessee) still need to win out and win a game or two in the SEC Tournament to have any reasonable shot.

Pac-10

Pecking Order: [IN: No One] (Bubble: California)
Weekend Bubble Results: California - W over Arizona State

Cal (RPI: 21) defeated Arizona State to eliminate the Sun Devils from the at-large discussion and bolster the Bears own chances. The Bears will be favored to win the Pac-10 Tournament, but a loss would leave them relying on a resume with three losses outside the RPI Top 100 and zero Top 50 wins.

Atlantic 10

Pecking Order: [IN: Temple, Xavier, Richmond] (Bubble: Dayton, Rhode Island, Charlotte)
Weekend Bubble Results: Charlotte - L at George Washington; Rhode Island - L at St. Bonaventure; Dayton - W over UMass

An absolutely disastrous weekend for A-10 bubble teams. I have a hard time seeing how you can put Charlotte or Rhode Island in the field with the way they are falling apart down the stretch. Charlotte (RPI: 61) needs to win at Rhode Island and vs. Richmond to realistically even get back in the discussion. Rhode Island (RPI: 37) has Charlotte at home and travels to UMass. The Rams have the better overall profile but both teams need to win out and pull off an upset in the A-10 Tournament to hopefully get in.

Dayton (RPI: 41), by default, has moved to the top of the bubble pecking order in the Atlantic 10. The Flyers need to win at Richmond and at home to Saint Louis next week and can't afford a bad A-10 Tournament loss.

Mountain West

Pecking Order: [IN:New Mexico, BYU] (Bubble: UNLV, San Diego State)
Weekend Bubble Results: UNLV - W at Air Force

San Diego State (RPI: 39) had the weekend off, but UNLV (RPI: 43) took care of business at Air Force. UNLV does have three losses outside the Top 100 but should be fine if they win their last game against Wyoming and make it to the Mountain West semifinals.

Others

Weekend Bubble Results: Saint Mary's - W over Loyola Marymount; UTEP - W over Rice; UAB - W over Tulane; Old Dominion - W over VCU ; Northern Iowa - W over Illinois State

All of these bubble teams avoided home slip-ups this weekend and kept themselves alive for an at-large. Of these five teams, Northern Iowa has the best case for at-large should they fail to win the Missouri Valley Tournament, with a RPI of 20 and a 9-1 record vs. the RPI Top 100.

Old Dominion (RPI: 38) has not gotten the attention they deserve this season. The Monarchs only Top 50 win was at Georgetown, but they do have seven total wins against the Top 100, and only one loss outside the Top 100.

Both UTEP (RPI: 47) and UAB (RPI: 35) make an interesting case for an at-large bid coming out of Conference USA. UAB has the better RPI and the best overall win (vs. Butler), but UTEP is two games up in the conference race and already won at UAB in January. UTEP must travel to Marshall and UAB hosts Memphis before the rematch next Saturday. That game will be crucial for both teams, but neither can afford to look ahead.