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David Aardsma: Tick Tick, Fantasy Owners Should Avoid His Oncoming Explosion

Eric StashinFeb 14, 2010

Iโ€™ve seen multiple places rank David Aardsma as a Top 20 relief pitcher heading into 2010.ย  Some even have him ranked as a Top 15, borderline Top 10 option.ย  I have to wonder, why?ย  Are we talking about the same pitcher here?

I know, he was fantastic in 2010, just look at his line:

3 Wins
71.1 Innings
2.52 ERA
1.16 WHIP
80 Strikeouts (10.09 K/9)
34 Walks (4.29 BB/9)
.271 BABIP

However, are we so quick to ignore his history and simply look at what he did last season?ย  This is the same pitcher with a career ERA of 4.38, including last seasons' sparkling number.ย  From 2004-2008 he spent four seasons in the Major Leagues with four different teams, posting the following ERAs:

  • 2004 - Giants - 6.75 ERA - 10.2 IP
  • 2006 - Cubs - 4.08 ERA - 53.0 IP
  • 2007 - White Sox - 6.40 ERA - 31.1 IP
  • 2008 - Red Sox - 5.55 ERA - 48.2 IP

Are we to simply ignore this track record?

While you can credit a very good defense behind him, he also suddenly became a pitcher who generated significant groundballs:

  • 2007 - 42.1%
  • 2008 - 38.1%
  • 2009 - 53.9%

His HR/FB was just 4.2 percent, allowing just four home runs.ย  I know he calls a pitchers' park home, but this is a bit extreme.ย  There is little chance of him being able to maintain that number.

While the strikeouts could very well be for real (career 9.13 K/9), so is the terrible control (career 5.17 BB/9).ย  Donโ€™t count on him limiting the base runners from free passes any time soon.

Iโ€™m not even going to mention the BABIP because, as a relief pitcher, it is possible that he can maintain a below average mark.ย  Do I expect it to happen?ย  Probably not, but it is still a possibility.

When we put things together, we get the following projection:

65.0 IP, 2 W, 4.29 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 65 K (9.00 K/9), 34 BB (4.71 BB/9)

The bottom line is he was a mediocre relief pitcher, at best, who stepped into a situation and ran with it to have a tremendous season in 2009.ย  Does that mean that heโ€™s going to be able to repeat that success?ย  Absolutely not.

He is the 30th closer on my draft board, meaning heโ€™s an absolute last resort option if I miss out on every other available closer.ย  To me, heโ€™s a ticking time bomb just waiting to explode.ย  Thatโ€™s something that I want as far away from my roster as possible.

What are your thoughts on Aardsma?ย  Could he repeat last seasonโ€™s success?ย  Do you have any interest in drafting him?

If you would like to see aย free previewย of the Rotoprofessor 2010 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide (available for just $5), click here .

Make sure to check out someย of our 2010 projections, including:

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