Failing The Bar: Fantasy Baseball Owners Pass On Jason Bartlett In 2010

Jason Bartlett had a career year in 2009, there’s just no other way to put it, but can he possibly repeat it?  Just look at the line:

500 At Bats
.320 Batting Average (160 Hits)
14 Home Runs
66 RBI
90 Runs
30 Stolen Bases
.389 On Base Percentage
.490 Slugging Percentage
.368 Batting Average on Balls in Play

What You Need To Know

• The BABIP tells you everything about his average.  He’s a career .287 hitter and there’s little chance that he is able to repeat his ‘09 luck.  Look for a likely sizable fall.
• Prior to last season he had hit just 11 home runs in his career with his best HR/FB coming in 2005 (in 224 AB) when he posted a 4.6% mark.  In ‘08 his mark was 0.9%.  So, where did his 8.7% from ‘09 come from?  While it’s possible he continues to have more power then he had previously shown, I wouldn’t count on a repeat.
• The RBI and R were purely a function of his improved luck and increase in HR/FB.  With both of those numbers decreasing, both of these counting stats are going to take a hit as well.
• The one number that may be realistic is his stolen bases, though even that is likely to show a regression.  Prior to last season his best years came in ‘07 and ‘08, when he stole 23 and 20 bases, respectively.  The 30 was a bit of a jump and a number that is tough to expect him to repeat.

2010 Projection

.282 (145-515), 8 HR, 45 RBI, 80 R, 25 SB, .319 BABIP, .342 OBP, .400 SLG

Final Thoughts

Do not pay for what was a career year in 2009.  Does anyone truly believe that he’s going to be able to repeat it?  To me, he’s a borderline starter in standard mixed leagues, but one that I’d rather not depend on.  Considering where I’ve ranked him (eleventh among shortstops) and where he’s being drafted (currently around 103), there’s little chance that I’m going to end up with him in any league.

What about you?  Is he a player that you would want to own?  What are you expecting from him in ‘10?

Make sure to order your copy of the Rotoprofessor 2010 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide, selling for just $5, by clicking here .

Make sure to check out some of our 2010 projections, including:

• Andrus, Elvis
• Baker, Scott
• Beckham, Gordon
• Blanks, Kyle
• Burnett, A.J.
• Butler, Billy
• Cabrera, Everth
• Cain, Matt
• Correia, Kevin
• Davis, Chris
• Escobar, Alcides
• Furcal, Rafael
• Hamels, Cole
• Harang, Aaron
• Jones, Chipper
• Kershaw, Clayton
• Kouzmanoff, Kevin
• Kubel, Jason
• Lee, Derrek
• Lopez, Jose
• Markakis, Nick
• Nolasco, Ricky
• Oswalt, Roy
• Pena, Carlos
• Peralta, Jhonny
• Rasmus, Colby
• Reimold, Nolan
• Reynolds, Mark
• Roberts, Brian
• Shields, James
• Sizemore, Grady
• Suzuki, Ichiro
• Upton, B.J.
• Vazquez, Javier
• Votto, Joey
• Wallace, Brett
• Werth, Jayson
• Wieters, Matt
• Youkilis, Kevin

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