Fantasy Pick'Em: 2010 Daytona 500

We’ll be two months and three weeks removed from the last points-paying NASCAR Sprint Cup Series race by the time the checkered flag drops at Daytona for the 52nd running of the Daytona 500.

Of course, everybody’s going to be extra hungry to take the checkered flag in the first and biggest race of the season—especially those drivers who are running limited schedules this season or others who failed to register a victory in 2009. But as we all know, only one will claim the victory and the Harley J. Earl Trophy.

This year’s fantasy column is going to run similarly to last year’s. I’ll pick five drivers with a shot to win, with one singled out as my pick and one left-field pick as my dark horse. It’s up to you folks playing fantasy racing games online to do the rest. Without further ado:

Tony Stewart is my pick to win the Daytona 500. Stewart-Haas Racing proved it was no pushover last year, and with a year under their belts they’ll be even stronger in 2010. Smoke is certainly hungry for a win in the 500, as his teammate (Ryan Newman) and crew chief (Darian Grubb) have both already won the biggest race.

He’s got the stats to back him up too: In the 14 Daytona races since 2003, he has only failed to lead laps three times, and in both 2005 races he led over 100 laps. He’s also got three Daytona Cup wins, the most recent coming in last year’s Coke Zero 400.

My dark horse pick is another former Daytona winner, John Andretti. Running a dream schedule of major Cup events and likely the Indianapolis 500 this year, he’ll no longer have to worry about points racing and keeping a car in the top 35. He can run as hard as he wants when he races and go for victories. Keep in mind how Mark Martin elevated his game in 2007 with the pressure of points racing off his back, and nearly won the 500.

Three other drivers you can expect to do well on Sunday:

Marcos Ambrose has an average finish of 11.5, best among active drivers at Daytona. True, he’s only made two starts, but he hasn’t taken a big hit in the Cup cars, and he’s learned plenty from his Nationwide experience, including what it feels like to wreck at the superspeedway. He successfully avoided the accident at the end of last July’s race to finish sixth.

Dale Earnhardt Jr. desperately needs a strong run after a dismal 2009 that saw him sink to 25^th in points, his worst ever showing in Sprint Cup. He qualified second, a sign that he’ll be fast on race day, but he needs to avoid the bad luck that plagued him at Daytona (as well as seemingly everywhere else) last year.

Finally, one cannot count out pole sitter Mark Martin. Sunday will mark the third time in four races he’ll sit on the front row of a Cup race at Daytona, and his first pole at the track since the 1989 Pepsi 400, in which he finished 16th. But shockingly, Martin has never won a points-paying Sprint Cup event at his home track (he lives in nearby Port Orange); in his 50th start at the track, can the 51-year-old win the 52nd Daytona 500?