2010 MLB Predictions: Mike Cameron's Late-Career Boston Breakout

Everyone expects center fielder Mike Cameron to upgrade the Red Sox defense.

Shifting Jacoby Ellsbury to left and situating the vastly more capable Cameron in center, Theo Epstein and Terry Francona should achieve something close to a 16.3 UZR/150 improvement in center and a 29.8 UZR/150 increase in left.

Adding Cameron upgrades the defense through both Cameron’s direct impact and the auxiliary effect of giving Ellsbury greater opportunity for defensive success.

What else should one expect from a three-time Gold Glove winner?

Actually, expect Cameron to have a near-career year on offense.

Consider this.

Mike Cameron’s best offensive years have generally come in ballparks like Shea Stadium, Safeco Field, and Great American Ballpark. These parks are all much more hitter-friendly than his more recent homes at Miller and Petco.

As a Mariner in 2001, Mike Cameron enjoyed playing one of the most hitter-friendly parks of his career. He hit .267 with 25 homers. He made the American League All-Star team.

Putting that in context of replacing Jason Bay, Bay hit .267 with 36 homers in 2009. That’s just 11 home runs better than Cameron’s best year in a less hitter-friendly ballpark.

Even at Petco in 2006, Cameron hit .268 with 22 home runs.

In Fenway Park, Mike Cameron will enjoy the most hitter-friendly home of his 15-year career.

Factoring in Fenway’s particular statistical advantages, Cameron’s career .250/.340/.448 line could easily transform into a .273 average, .371 on-base percentage, and .489 slugging percentage.

Between Cameron’s Gold Glove defense and this possible career high in offense, he could be worth about $21.2 million in sabermetric value. His salary is only $7.25 million.

While many have praised Theo Epstein’s defensive upgrades in a weak offensive free-agent market, releasing Jason Bay may not have downgraded the offense as much as previously thought.

In the end, adding Cameron might be as much of an offensive coup as it is a sound defensive maneuver.