Quick Fantasy Baseball Projection: Brian Roberts

Eric StashinJan 29, 2010

Once considered one of the best second baseman in baseball, Brian Roberts has seen his value steadily decrease in recent years. The problem is that the bulk of his value has been tied to his legs and his stolen base total has gone from 50 to 40 to 30 over the past three years.

That certainly isn’t a good sign, now is it?

Let’s take a look at his statistics from 2009:

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632 At-Bats
.283 Batting Average (179 Hits)
16 Home Runs
79 RBI
110 Runs
30 Stolen Bases
.356 On Base Percentage
.451 Slugging Percentage
.323 Batting Average on Balls in Play

Thoughts

He only attempted 37 stolen bases last season, after attempting 57 and 50 the previous two seasons. His OBP also dipped from the .377 & .378 the previous two years. If he’s not on base as much, he’s not going to get as many opportunities to run. If he’s not going to have as many opportunities to run, he’s going to steal fewer bases. It’s just that simple.
The Orioles have a good young offense coming together, but it’s still hard to imagine Roberts replicating his career high in runs scored from a year ago. He’s still going to be good, but not 110 runs scored good.
The prior three seasons Roberts had posted HR totals of 10, 12 and 9. He had posted RBI marks of 55, 57 and 59. Does anyone believe the mini explosion he showed in 2009? Look for a regression in both categories in 2010.
The average was right in line with is career mark (.284) as was his BABIP (.320). He’s been between .283 and .296 for the past four seasons and should continue to be in that range.
At 32-years old, what kind of upside potential does he have? You have to think that we’ve seen the best he has to offer at this point.

2010 Projection

.285 (177-620), 13 HR, 60 RBI, 100 R, 26 SB, .327 BABIP, .356 OBP, .435 SLG

Closing Thoughts

As I said, a vast majority of Roberts’ value is tied to his ability to steal a base. Unless he makes a huge rebound there, or duplicates his surprise year in home runs and RBI, he’s not going to be among the top 2B in the league. Take him for his runs and potential to steal some bases, but don’t look for much else.

That puts him in the same range as an Aaron Hill, though I would still select Hill before Roberts.

What are your thoughts? Am I too critical of Roberts? What do you expect from him in 2010?

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Make sure to check out some of our 2010 projections, including: