Quick Fantasy Baseball Prospect Report: J.P. Arencibia

2009 Statistics at Triple-A:

466 At Bats
.236 Batting Average (110 Hits)
21 Home Runs
75 RBI
67 Runs
Zero Stolen Bases
.284 On Base Percentage
.444 Slugging Percentage
.269 Batting Average on Balls in Play

What You Need To Know:

—2007 First Round Draft Pick (21st overall)

—Recently ranked as the Blue Jays No. 2 prospect by Baseball America

—His strikeout rate is a problem, at 24.5 percent at Triple-A last season. Even if his BABIP was at .299 (120 hits), his average would have been just .258. Considering he could see another jump in strikeouts in moving to the Major Leagues, you have to be concerned with his potential to hit for a usable average.

As Baseball America recently said, “Scouts question how much Arencibia will hit in the major leagues because his swing is long and his bat speed is ordinary.”

—His flyball rate for his minor league career was 46.4 percent, though it rose to 52.5 percent at Triple-A last season. That type of flyball rate, especially with his speed, is not conducive to a great BABIP. The low number may not be purely luck related, so a huge rebound is no guarantee. Just more fuel to the fire for a potentially poor average.

—The power is his allure, with 51 career home runs in 1,204 AB over parts of three minor league seasons. In 2008, between Single & Double-A he hit 27 HR with 105 RBI.

—It is likely that he gets an opportunity at some point in 2010, with the Blue Jays having John Buck and Raul Chavez on the Major League roster. Buck is a career .235 hitter and has never hit more than 18 HR in a season, which he’s done just once (his second best year was 12). The difference between him and Arencibia is minor, at best.

—A year ago he would have been considered a must own in this situation, but his Triple-A struggles opened some eyes. Still, if you are in a two-catcher format, he’s certainly worth paying attention to. Consider him as having the same type of potential as a Mike Napoli, long-term.

What are your thoughts on Arencibia? Is he a player you consider worth owning or does the average scare you off?

Make sure to place your order for the Rotoprofessor 2010 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide, selling for just $5, by clicking here .

You can read other recent Prospect Reports including:

• Jake Arrieta
• Phillippe Aumont
• Jason Castro
• Allen Craig
• Aaron Crow
• Kyle Drabek
• Todd Frazier
• Christian Friedrich
• Jeremy Hellickson
• Daniel Hudson
• Jay Jackson

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