The 2010 revival of Grade III Tropical Park Derby on the turf at Calder Race Course on January 1st is the first derby of the new decade. Since its run on turf, many handicappers may not consider the Tropical Park Derby as a true Kentucky Derby prep. However, an examination of the Kentucky Derby runners this race has produced in recent years shows that the Tropical Park Derby is as much of a Kentucky Derby prep as any stakes race for three year olds run on dirt.
The great Barbaro was triumphant in the 2006 Tropical Park Derby on his way to winning the Kentucky Derby. Imperialism didn't hit the board in the 2004 contest, but went on to run third to Smarty Jones in that year's run for the roses. Sedgefield and Storm in May ran second and third in 2007 and Cowboy Cal was victorious in 2008, all on their way to the starting gate on the first Saturday in May.
Lost Aptitude is the best colt in this year's field and has the potential to turn into a thoroughbred racing star. His sire, Aptitude, won the Jockey Club Gold Cup at the age of four, and ran second in both the Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes at the age of three. His grandsire, A.P. Indy, won the Santa Anita Derby, Belmont Stakes, and Breeder's Cup Classic all at the age of three. His damsire, Lost Code, earned over $2 million in his career with notable wins in the Ohio Derby and Massachusetts Handicap. This leads me to believe that Lost Aptitude may have a very bright future racing on dirt, as opposed to turf, but we will have to wait and see.
Lost Aptitude comes into the Tropical Park Derby having run five previous times, with a record of three wins, one show, and a fourth place finish in his debut. He won the Grand Canyon Handicap at Churchill Downs last out by 5 1/4 lengths earning a 103 Equibase Speed Figure. Before that, he won a first level allowance race at Churchill by 3 1/2 lengths earning a 107 Equibase Speed Figure. The only race factor that could compromise Lost Aptitude in this race is a soft or yielding turf course. The weather in Miami on New Year's Day does call for scattered thunderstorms, so bettor beware if the Calder turf course becomes too saturated.
If there is give to to turf, Lost Aptitude could be challenged by several horses. Cat Park beat Lost Aptitude by one length on in a first level allowance race on a yielding turf course at Churchill Downs in late October, but came back to lose by seven lengths to Lost Aptitude in the Grand Canyon Handicap. Sunrise Nursery won a first level allowance race at Calder on turf rated good last out, his first start on turf. Our Champion was beaten by two lengths in that same race, but was bumped hard in the stretch. Our Champion came back to win his next start on turf rated good in a first level allowance race also at Calder. Trippo ran second in a first level allowance race on a soft turf course at Aqueduct last out.
Finally, Lost Aptitude's main competition regardless of whatever running conditions mother nature may provide could be Becky's Kitten. Becky's Kitten finished a game second in the Summer Stakes at Woodbine to Breeder's Cup Juvenile Turf runner-up Bridgetown. Despite a ninth place finish in the Breeder's Cup Juvenile Turf, Becky's Kitten has faced tougher competition than any horse in entered in the Tropical Park Derby. Becky's Kitten sire, Kitten's Joy, won this race in 2004 on his way to being voted the Eclipse Award for Most Outstanding Turf Horse that year.
The Play: $50 to Win on Lost Aptitude
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