Quest For The Triple Crown: Kentucky Derby Future Odds

While horseplayers will not be able to bet the official Kentucky Derby Future Wager (KDFW) until Pool 1 opens sometime in February 2010, Wynn Las Vegas Race and Sports Book has been offering future odds for the run for the roses throughout the fall. Currently, Wynn offers future odds on about 300 horses. The odds can be found here:

http://wynnlasvegas.com/pdf/Race_Kentucky_Odds_122209.pdf

While a Kentucky Derby future wager is a crapshoot, Wynn is probably offering odds commensurate with that crapshoot. Compare Wynn's future odds to the official KDFW which will offer three different pools with odds on 23 different horses and a 24th betting interest called "All Others." It is important to note that the best odds for last year's derby winner Mine That Bird would have been 17-1 as part of the "All Others" option of KDFW Pool 3. Mine That Bird's odds on the day of the race were 50-1, so if you knew about Mine That Bird (yeah right), you would have been without access to future odds relative to the risk involved.

To prove this point, let's examine the odds of Bear Tough Guy, who won the 2009 Grey Stakes at Woodbine on 10/11/09. Up until the Kentucky Derby, the 2008 Grey Stakes was the only graded stakes race Mine That Bird had won. Wynn is currently offering 150-1 odds on Bear Tough Guy. That's much better than what you will get for Bear Tough Guy if he ends up in any KDFW pool.

On the flip side, it is important to note that Kentucky Derby prospects running well right now don't have odds that match the risk involved. Lookin At Lucky looks great right now, but a lot can happen between now and May 1st that would make 6-1 future odds a bad bet. If a future wager is truly a crapshoot, horseplayers might as well get huge odds. This type of value will only be found by looking at horses that haven't run in stakes company.

For instance, Wynn's future odds on Tiz Chrome heading into the Stuka Stakes at Hollywood Park on 12/19/09 were 150-1. Tiz Chrome romped in the Stuka Stakes to run his career record to two wins in as many tries. Horseplayers were impressed and Wynn's future odds on Tiz Chrome now stand at 20-1. For this horseplayer, that means it's time to find a new future wager for the 2010 Kentucky Derby.