Week 16 NFL Vegas Odds: Jacksonville Vs. New England

It’s the Jacksonville Jaguars vs. New England Patriots. Sportsbooks have New England from a 9.5 to 10-point favorite and the line appears to be headed upwards.

Handicapping notes: It sure doesn’t feel like the Patriots have won two straight games, does it? But that’s the impression we’ve gotten watching the Pats try to move the ball lately. Tom Brady hooked up with Randy Moss once last week but let’s face it; they aren’t connecting right now. For whatever reason, Brady is off; he’s topped 250 passing yards once and thrown more interceptions (six) than touchdown passes over his last four games. Protection isn’t the issue; he’s been sacked just twice over that span. It doesn’t help that Moss is quitting on plays, too.

In theory, NFL point spread match-ups versus Jacksonville’s pass defense, which ranks 27^th in the league, should remedy New England’s offensive woes. Brady has been superior at home, throwing 13 touchdown passes versus three interceptions at Gillette Stadium. Since the Pats are also 7-0 at home, it’s hard to imagine them losing this one.

However, I’m not too confident that they’ll win by more than a touchdown. New England kept the Panthers and Bills’ offenses in check over the last two weeks but those were one-dimensional units that struggle to pass the ball. David Garrard is no star but he’s much more capable than Matt Moore or Ryan Fitzpatrick. He’ll keep the Pats honest and help open up room for Maurice Jones-Drew to pound the rock. As long the Jags stay close and can still run the ball, I think they’ll lose by seven points or less.

Against the spread records: New England is 2-8 against the scores and odds after allowing less than 250 total yards previous game.

Top expert pick on this game: Everyone won with Marshall as a Wise Guy and most won with Pittsburgh. Either way, it’s a fantastic Sunday from Center of the Handicapping Universe. Get two NFL Wise Guy sides and two Majors including a moneyline upset.

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