Sheraton Hawaii Bowl: SMU vs. Nevada Preview and Predictions

December 24, 2009 | 8:00 PM EST, Honolulu, HI, on ESPN

Sheraton Hawaii Bowl

SMU Mustangs (7-5) vs Nevada Wolf Pack (8-4)

Opening Line: Nevada -12

Game Preview: Lots of subplots to this one. SMU's first bowl since coming back from the death penalty. June Jones return to Hawaii. Nevada is the only team in history with three 1,000-yard rushers in the same season.

This game will be a major contrast in styles, SMU loves to pass and Nevada loves to run. Neither is really that impressive when it come to defense so both might have their way which should make for a very entertaining game. Not bad for X-Mas eve.

SMU Preview: Given their coach it is not surprising that the Mustangs prefer the pass. The combination of Bo Levi Mitchell to Emmanuel Sanders is one of the best in the country. This will be Sanders' last game but don't be surprised if you see him on Sundays next fall.

The problem is that he doesn't play defense...and neither does any other Mustang really. SMU couldn't crack the top 80 nationally in any defensive category. The only thing they do fairly well on D is rush the passer but that might be moot against one of the most elusive QBs in college football—Colin Kaepernick.

Nevada Preview: The Wolfpack took a little while to find their stride losing their first three games. After that they won eight in a row, shredding people with a lethal ground attack, before they ran into the WAC's immovable object Boise State. To their credit only Oregon came as close as Nevada did.

Nevada is the number one rushing team in the country but they are likely to be missing their top RBs in this bowl. That puts a lot of pressure on their QB but it is unlikely that they will change their strategy, their backups are pretty solid too. Hopefully Kaepernick hasn't lost any of his conditioning with the bowl layoff. They are going to need him to shoulder more of the load than usual.

Game Prediction: SMU faced the No. 2 rushing team in the nation, Navy, earlier in the season. That was a 38-35 loss and the Midshipmen rushed for 331 yards, attempting only nine passes.

This game should go about the same. Even with the losses Nevada is still a formidable running team and Kaepernick is a better QB than anyone who tosses for Navy. This game is what bowl season is all about...it may not mean much but what could be better than doing your thing in Hawaii if you are SMU or Nevada

Score Prediction: Nevada - 41 SMU - 37

Pick: Nevada is not at full strength so I would take a pass on them. Watch the over but more importantly just watch the game, it should be fun. If you need to go ATS then grab the Mustangs.

Southern Methodist Mustang Betting Trends:

Southern Methodist is 2-4 ATS in its last six games.
Southern Methodist is 4-1 SU in its last five games.
Southern Methodist is 7-15 SU in its last 22 games

Nevada Wolf Pack Betting Trends:

Nevada is 5-1 ATS in its last six games.
Nevada is 8-1 SU in its last nine games.
The total has gone OVER in five of Nevada's last seven games.