IDP Wednesday: Week 16
Welcome to the final IDP Wednesday for the 2009 NFL season. It's been fun bringing you this article every week. I hope you have found it insightful and that it helped you out throughout the year as that was the ultimate goal.
If you're reading this, you're probably in the championship and need this information more than ever as the person you're up against obviously knows what they are doing, as well. So, with that said, let's get to the picks. I've been on fire as of late, so hopefully I can keep it up for one more.
Similar to the last couple of weeks, I have listed the Favorable Five and the Formidable Five teams over the last five weeks of the season at each position and shown whom that team faces this week. I've also added who have been the best teams to play for the entire year at each position. For those not interested in the charts and just want the recommendations, I will start with the analysis at the beginning this week instead of the end for you.
Quick Note: Please keep in mind, the analysis portion doesn't take into consideration weather conditions, if it's a divisional game, or if it's a nationally televised game—all factors that have seemed to inconsistently skew the numbers for a given team.
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For example, if the wind is howling, you can expect there to be an inordinate amount of running plays by both teams, divisional teams now have film on the other team to change game plans, etc., and some players seem to step it up a notch when they know they are on the big stage. With that said, all should be considered when you are planning on using a player each week. I just want to make sure you remember.
So, as I have throughout this year, I will be using the following point system for my analysis:
My Preferred IDP Scoring System
| Solo | Assists | Sack | Int | FF | PD | TD |
| 2 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 6 |
Analysis
DL
Expected Player Production Better Than Normal
Justin Tuck: Should be a monster.
Dwight Freeney: If he plays the entire game.
Expected Player Production Worse Than Normal
Shaun Ellis
Marques Douglas
MLB/ILB
Expected Player Performance Better Than Normal
DeMeco Ryans
Nick Barnett
Justin Durant
Expected Player Performance Worse Than Normal
Larry Foote
WLB/OLB
Expected Player Performance Better Than Normal
Clay Matthews
Aaron Kampman
Matt Roth
Kamerion Wimbley
Jason Trusnik
James Anderson
Expected Player Performance Worse Than Normal
Anthony Spencer
DeMarcus Ware
Daryl Smith
Clint Ingram
Calvin Pace
Bryan Thomas
S
Expected Player Performance Better Than Normal
Quintin Mikell
Sean Jones
Expected Player Performance Worse Than Normal
Brian Dawkins
Renaldo Hill
CB
Expected Player Performance Better Than Normal
Vontae Davis
Richard Marshall
Expected Player Performance Worse Than Normal
Chris Johnson
Nnamdi Asomugha
Eric Wright
Good luck to all of you this week on winning your championship. For those that are data junkies like myself, here is more information to wrap your brains around for you to make your decisions on whom to play this week:
(Team to the left is ranked team; team to the right is opponent)
DL
Over Last Five Weeks
Favorable Five
| 1. | NYJ | @IND |
| 2. | STL | @ARI |
| 3. | BUF | @ATL |
| 4. | @NE | JAC |
| 5. | CAR | @NYG |
Formidable Five
| 1. | @IND | NYJ |
| 2. | @NO | TB |
| 3. | @GB | SEA |
| 4. | TB | @NO |
| 5. | BAL | @PIT |
Over Entire Year
Favorable Five
| 1. | @GB | SEA |
| 2. | NYJ | @IND |
| 3. | CAR | @NYG |
| 4. | KC | @CIN |
| 5. | @SF | DET |
Formidable Five
| 1. | @IND | NYJ |
| 2. | DAL | @WAS |
| 3. | @ATL | BUF |
| 4. | @NYG | CAR |
| 5. | @CIN | KC |
MLB/ILB
Over Last Five Weeks
Favorable Five
| 1. | @NE | JAC |
| 2. | @MIA | HOU |
| 3. | SEA | @GB |
| 4. | JAC | @NE |
| 5. | DAL | @WAS |
Formidable Five
| 1. | @SF | DET |
| 2. | MIN | @CHI |
| 3. | CAR | @NYG |
| 4. | SD | @TEN |
| 5. | @GB | SEA |
Over Entire Year
Favorable Five
| 1. | @NE | JAC |
| 2. | @MIA | HOU |
| 3. | SEA | @GB |
| 4. | @NO | TB |
| 5. | NYJ | @IND |
Formidable Five
| 1. | @GB | SEA |
| 2. | SD | @TEN |
| 3. | @ATL | BUF |
| 4. | @SF | DET |
| 5. | @PHI | DEN |
WLB/OLB
Over Last Five Weeks
Favorable Five
| 1. | SEA | @GB |
| 2. | STL | @ARI |
| 3. | OAK | @CLE |
| 4. | @NO | TB |
| 5. | @NYG | CAR |
Formidable Five
| 1. | @WAS | DAL |
| 2. | @NE | BUF |
| 3. | DET | @SF |
| 4. | @MIA | HOU |
| 5. | @IND | NYJ |
Over Entire Year
Favorable Five
| 1. | SEA | @GB |
| 2. | @NYG | CAR |
| 3. | DET | @SF |
| 4. | @CLE | OAK |
| 5. | OAK | @CLE |
Formidable Five
| 1. | @IND | NYJ |
| 2. | @PHI | DEN |
| 3. | NYJ | @IND |
| 4. | @WAS | DAL |
| 5. | @NE | JAC |
S
Over Last Five Weeks
Favorable Five
| 1. | DEN | @PHI |
| 2. | @CIN | KC |
| 3. | STL | @ARI |
| 4. | TB | @NO |
| 5. | DAL | @WAS |
Formidable Five
| 1. | @PHI | DEN |
| 2. | @WAS | DAL |
| 3. | @ATL | BUF |
| 4. | BAL | @PIT |
| 5. | @NE | JAC |
Over Entire Year
Favorable Five
| 1. | @NO | TB |
| 2. | DEN | @PHI |
| 3. | @NYG | CAR |
| 4. | SEA | @GB |
| 5. | @CIN | KC |
Formidable Five
| 1. | BUF | @ATL |
| 2. | OAK | @CLE |
| 3. | @SF | DET |
| 4. | @PHI | DEN |
| 5. | JAC | @NE |
CB
Over Last Five Weeks
Favorable Five
| 1. | @CIN | KC |
| 2. | HOU | @MIA |
| 3. | @WAS | DAL |
| 4. | DET | @SF |
| 5. | @NYG | CAR |
Formidable Five
| 1. | @CLE | OAK |
| 2. | @IND | NYJ |
| 3. | OAK | @CLE |
| 4. | JAC | @NE |
| 5. | BUF | @ATL |
Over Entire Year
Favorable Five
| 1. | @PIT | BAL |
| 2. | @ARI | STL |
| 3. | @NYG | CAR |
| 4. | HOU | @MIA |
| 5. | BAL | @PIT |
Formidable Five
| 1. | @CLE | OAK |
| 2. | OAK | @CLE |
| 3. | KC | @CIN |
| 4. | @TEN | SD |
| 5. | @SF | DET |
You can always checkout the latest posts from Justin Curry at NumbersAndGuts.com
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