Superbowl Futures: A Contrarian's Guide To Winning

There is absolutely no better time than these last few weeks of the NFL season to start making bets on this years Superbowl Champion. In a year where the perrenial losers, the New Orleans Saints, are the chalk to win it all there are a myriad of opportunities for the ambitious handicapper. I will first list the current odds as of today, December 23rd before giving you my thoughts.

Saints 3-1, Colts 3-1(5-2 on some boards), Chargers 11/2, Vikings 7-1, Eagles 10-1, Patriots 10-1, Cardinals 16-1, Packers 24-1, Cowboys 24-1, Ravens 24-1, Bengals 26-1, Giants 55-1, Broncos 65-1, Steelers 65-1.

For those looking to make a potential score you must first throw away the heavies. There is no value in the Saints, Colts, or Vikings(especially the Vikes). While one can argue the Saints and Colts are clearly the best teams, why would you want to sweat out a month for such a low rate of return? In the NFC I took the Packers at 24-1. Despite being a wildcard team, they have the necessary components to make a run in these playoffs. I also went against my better judgement and took the Cowboys at 24-1, strictly as a value play. The world is on the Eagles bandwagon and considering Dallas has a home game against them that should decide the division, I had to take the extra odds that come with this pick(despite the coaching mismatch and Dallas' recent history in late season games). For those of you betting on a Cowboys collapse the Giants at 55-1 are great longshot odds but remember the defense you saw Monday night was more a result of the Redskins futility.  

The AFC is clearly more difficult because while I am not crazy about the Colts, they are undefeated, have the best player on the planet, and have Superbowl experience. That being said, they will probably falter especially if they are undefeated headed into the playoffs. Based on the current odds and the log jam in the wildcard race, if you stuck a gun to my head I would take the Ravens at 24-1 and Broncos at 65-1 (Broncos as a complete lotto ticket).