College Basketball Pick: Ohio vs. Delaware Odds: December 12th 2009

Ohio vs. Delaware
Free Pick: Ohio vs. Delaware u143.0 (-110 odds)
Sat December 12th 2009 2:00p
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We actually feel that the visiting Ohio Bobcats are a much better team than the home standing Delaware Fighting Blue Hens in this contest, but we are always leery about giving points on the road with a MAC team. However, we do expect a low scoring game here and we feel the Under has nice value with a posted total of 143.

The raw numbers show that Ohio is averaging 77.9 points per game and Delaware is averaging 63.4 points, and while that combined total of 141.3 is just slightly less than thus posted total, we actually feel that Delaware will have a difficult time getting out of the 50s today.

This is because looking at the adjusted Pomeroy Ratings, which are adjusted for Strength of Schedule, the Ohio defense is allowing an excellent .0915 points per possession, which somewhat incredibly is ranks 55 in the nation ahead of many much higher profile teams. At the same time, Ohio grades out to an awful effective field goal percentage offensively of just 43.6 percent, and offense/defense combination that is very conducive to Unders.

As for Delaware, they have a terrible offensive PPP of .0937, ranking 262 out of 347 Division I teams. Thus, our skepticism about the performance of the Blue Hens offense this afternoon vs. what is apparently an underrated Ohio defense. The only risk to this Under appears to be the poor Delaware defense, but Ohio is not the type of team to run up the score, and they may not be able to anyway unless they improve their field goal percentage.

If we give Delaware 60 points here, which might even be a tad generous without late-game fouling, that would mean Ohio needs to score in the mid 80s for this game not to stay Under this total. We do not see that happening, so the Under seems like the safe play in this spot.

Free Pick: Ohio, Delaware Under 143 (-110)