Fantasy Football Out on a Limb 2009, Volume 14

Before we get started, check out my Week 14 NFL picks . Also check out this week’s "4th-and-1 Debate" as we discuss unheralded players who will step up this week (click here for the article ).

Time for another edition of Fantasy Football Out on a Limb. I scour the rosters to select a player who I feel will outperform a higher profile player in that given week. I base my decisions on matchups, how the players are trending, and the ever-important hunch. To mix things up I’ll occasionally do some two-on-one matchups or even pit RB or WR duos against each other. Sometimes I’ll spot a player some points.

Scoring
Six points for rushing or receiving TD
Four points for a passing TD
0.1 points per yard for rushing or receiving
0.05 points per passing yard

Last Week
Philip Rivers (26.65) over Drew Brees (28.95) : Loser

Matt Forte (15.6) over Ricky Williams (8.1): Winner

Jonathan Stewart (18.6) over Ryan Grant (4.1): Winner

Jeremy Maclin (8.3) over Larry Fitzgerald (20.3) : Loser

Austin Collie (7.8) over Chris Chambers (1.1): Winner

SS: Mike Thomas(2.5) over Terrell Owens (3.1) : Loser

Regular Picks:  3-2
Super Stretch Picks:  0-1
Overall:  3-3

Season Record
Regular Picks: 30-32-1
Super Stretch Picks:  4-11
Overall: 34-43-1

Week 14 Picks

Quarterbacks

Vince Young over Carson Palmer

VY is facing a St. Louis team that ranks 25th in total yards allowed (363.7) and 28th in points allowed per game (26.2). They are actually middle-of-the-road in passing yards allowed per game (217.5), but VY is a unique athlete that can contribute with both his arm and his feet. I just don’t see the Rams containing him. Meanwhile, Carson Palmer takes on the Vikings, who are coming off a bad loss on the road. Jared Allen failed to record even a tackle last week so you just know he’ll be looking for redemption. I wouldn’t want to be in his shoes.

Ben Roethlisberger over Tom Brady

This is a battle of multiple Super Bowl winners that find their teams in a free-fall. I think they’ll both win this week, but I like Big Ben to put up better fantasy numbers. Big Ben plays Cleveland’s 26th-ranked pass defense (246.1) The Browns have allowed 18 passing TDs on the year. Brady faces Carolina, who ranks sixth in passing yards allowed (192.4) and fifth in passing TDs allowed (12).

Ryan Fitzpatrick over Kyle Orton
Fitzpatrick has looked good at times. He as least has shown the ability to get the ball to T.O. and Lee Evans. He has a favorable matchup this week against Kansas City who ranks 28th with 250.6 passing yards allowed and 24th with passing TDs allowed (21). Orton takes on the Colts in Indianapolis. The Colts rank fourth with 11 passing TDs allowed.

Running Back

Jamaal Charles over Matt Forte +2

Who would have guessed coming into the year that I’d be spotting Matt Forte 20 yards in a head-to-head matchup with Jamaal Charles? Charles has averaged nearly 100 total yards and a score the last four weeks and has a juicy matchup against Buffalo’s league-worst run defense (172.1 ypg). Forte takes on Green Bay’s fourth-ranked run defense (97.2). The Pack has allowed just four rushing TDs.

Wide Receiver

Kevin Walter over Antonio Bryant
Walter has played decent over the last four games averaging five catches for 60 yards. He takes on Seattle who is 25th in passing yards allowed (243.5) and 28th in passing TD allowed (22). Bryant will have to deal with Jets shutdown corner Darrelle Revis. Have fun Antonio.

Super Stretch

Joe Flacco over Brett Favre
Flacco hasn’t been nearly the same QB that he was earlier in the season. Things could change this week as he takes on Detroit’s league-worst pass defense (274.8 yards, 28 TDs). Favre has struggled the past few seasons in December. He forced a couple of passes last week, which he’s avoided for most of the year. I’m afraid that he’s opened Pandora’s box and he could do more of the same this week. He faces Cincinnati who ranks 12th in passing yards allowed (211.5), eighth in passing TDs allowed (13), and sixth in INTs (14).

Originally published at LestersLegends.com .