Fantasy Major League Baseball Impact: Millwood, Harden, Wolf, and More

Eric StashinDec 9, 2009

After a few busy days of winter meetings in the MLB, let’s take a look at the fantasy implications of some of the bigger moves:

Rangers trade Kevin Millwood to Baltimore for Chris Ray - The deal isn’t about the players for Texas, but the money they saved. Millwood was owed $12 million for 2010, which Baltimore is said to be picking up a significant portion of. That said, the Orioles do get a solid veteran starting pitcher, though I would not fully believe in his 3.67 ERA from 2009. He was certainly on the lucky side, posting a BABIP of .279 (ninth best among pitchers throwing at least 180 innings) and a strand rate of 78.6% (also ninth best among pitchers throwing at least 180 innings). Considering he’s had ERAs of over 4.00 in five of the past six seasons and is going to one of the toughest divisions in baseball, a falloff is likely coming.
The Rangers sign Rich Harden - For the Rangers, this is a coup. While his health is always an issue, we all know that he could be among the best pitchers in the game when he takes the mound. He is the type of potential top of the rotation starter the Rangers always seem to be thirsting for. His value doesn’t change by joining Texas, since the health questions remain, but he’s a great gamble nonetheless.
The Brewers sign Randy Wolf - He’s coming off a great season, but succeeded thanks to a BABIP of .257. While he’s going to be given opportunities to win, he’s not going to be a pitcher who posts a 3.23 ERA once again. We’ll take a closer look at him in the future, but joining Milwaukee does little for his fantasy value.
The Astros acquired Matt Lindstrom - Lindstrom fell out of favor in Florida, where Leo Nunez is more secure as the closer (unless they make a move). In Houston Lindstrom should get new life as a potential closer, with LaTroy Hawkins signing with Milwaukee and Jose Valverde a free agent (though he was offered arbitration). We’ll know more about Lindstrom’s potential value in the coming days and weeks depending on Valverde, so stay tuned.
The Cardinals signed Brad Penny - This seems like a match made in heaven, doesn’t it? Penny seemed to resurrect his career after moving to the Giants, going 4-1 with a 2.59 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in 41.2 innings (after struggling with the Red Sox). Now, he gets to work with Dave Duncan, the man who always seems to turn nothing into something (look no further than Joel Pineiro). While he’s not going to be a Top 50 pitcher on draft day, as a late round sleeper he’s now a much better option.
The Nationals acquired Brian Bruney - An afterthought for the Yankees, Bruney may get a chance to close early on in Washington (though, as we’ve discussed, Drew Storen could claim the job quickly). That makes him worth eyeing in all formats.