2009-2010 College Football Bowl Predictions

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We simulated 34 college football bowls 1,000 times to find the likely winners and average scores from each game. Results and example boxscores from all 34 games are below. If you would like to play these games yourself, every 2009 team is available through our free NCAA college football SimMatchup .

New Mexico Bowl - Dec 19, 2009 View Boxscore >

Fresno State
27.8

Wyoming
18.6

Highlight : The nation's top running back hits his season average as the Bulldogs run wild for more than 230 yards against the Cowboys.

Player of the Game : Ryan Mathews, RB, Fresno State (171 yards, 155 on the ground, two TDs)

St. Petersburg Bowl - Dec 19, 2009 View Boxscore >

Rutgers
21.3

UCF
17.4

Highlight : Battle of shoulda-coulda-woulda teams comes right down to the wire in perhaps the most evenly matched game.

Player of the Game : Brynn Harvey, RB, Central Florida (117 total yards, 97 rushing yards, one TD)

R&L Carriers New Orleans Bowl - Dec 20, 2009 View Boxscore >

Southern Miss
23.0

Middle Tennessee
22.2

Highlight : Martevious Young, who didn’t even start at quarterback until the sixth game of the season, closes out a successful season by leading the Golden Eagles to a bowl win.

Player of the Game : Young, QB, Southern Miss (180 yards passing, two TDs, 24 rushing yards)

MAACO Las Vegas Bowl - Dec 22, 2009 View Boxscore >

Oregon State
24.9

Brigham Young
23.9

Highlight : Beavers’ rushing attack prevails over BYU’s aerial assault in yet another close early bowl game.

Player of the Game : Jacquizz Rodgers, RB, Oregon State (119 rushing yards, one TD, 40 receiving yards)

Poinsettia Bowl - Dec 23, 2009 View Boxscore >

California
25.6

Utah
23.0

Highlight : Perhaps the Heisman front-runner after the first month of the season, Cal running back Jahvid Best carries the Bears past Eddie Wide and the Utes.

Player of the Game : Best, RB, California (133 total yards, 105 on the ground, one TD)

Sheraton Hawaii Bowl - Dec 24, 2009 View Boxscore >

Nevada
31.2

Southern Methodist
25.5

Highlight : Nevada’s three-headed monster at running back (the Wolfpack are the first team to have three 1,000-yard rushers) takes care of business in SMU's head coach June Jones’ return to Hawaii.

Player of the Game : Vai Taua, RB, Nevada (137 rushing yards, two TDs)

Emerald Bowl - Dec 26, 2009 View Boxscore >

USC
27.7

Boston College
21.1

Highlight : In their first non-BCS bowl in eight years, the Trojans cap off an underwhelming season in a game that statistically speaking, could be described with the same adjective.

Player of the Game : Joe McKnight, RB, USC (97 rushing yards, 15 receiving yards, one TD)

Meineke Car Care Bowl - Dec 26, 2009 View Boxscore >

Pittsburgh
25.6

North Carolina
11.6

Highlight : North Carolina’s offense fails to get untracked, barely mustering 250 yards of total offense as Pitt bounces back from two straight losses.

Player of the Game : Dion Lewis, RB, Pittsburgh (132 rushing yards, 23 receiving yards, one TD)

Little Caesars Pizza Bowl - Dec 26, 2009 View Boxscore >

Ohio
21.2

Marshall
18.0

Highlight : In what seems like perhaps the most lackluster matchup of the bunch, the Bobcats cap off a hot finish to the season by beating the Thundering Herd.

Player of the Game : Darius Marshall, RB, Marshall (116 yards rushing, one TD)

Music City Bowl - Dec 27, 2009 View Boxscore >

Clemson
27.0

Kentucky
13.3

Highlight : Heisman snub C.J. Spiller runs all over one of the nation’s worst rushing defenses as Clemson puts up one of the biggest routs of the bowl season.

Player of the Game : Spiller, RB, Clemson (139 total yards, 115 yards rushing, one TD)

Independence Bowl - Dec 28, 2009 View Boxscore >

Georgia
31.2

Texas A&M
17.7

Highlight : Bulldogs rack up about 400 yards of total offense in a battle of ho-hum teams from the nation’s top two conferences.

Player of the Game : Joe Cox, QB, Georgia (201 passing yards, two TDs)

Champs Sports Bowl - Dec 29, 2009 View Boxscore >

Miami (FL)
26.5

Wisconsin
18.7

Highlight : One-time Heisman hopeful Jacory Harris outduels Big Ten’s Offensive Player of the Year in battle of passing attack versus ground game.

Player of the Game : Harris, QB, Miami (204 yards passing, two TDs)

Pacific Life Holiday Bowl - Dec 30, 2009 View Boxscore >

Arizona
21.5

Nebraska
16.5

Highlight : In what’s been the story of the year for the Cornhuskers, Nebraska’s offense struggles to find the end zone, spoiling Ndamukong Suh’s finale against Wildcats.

Player of the Game : Nic Grigsby, RB, Arizona (80 yards on just 11 carries, one TD)

Roady's Humanitarian Bowl - Dec 30, 2009 View Boxscore >

Idaho
32.5

Bowling Green
20.4

Highlight : Despite holding one the nation’s top passing attacks, the Vandals go to the ground to beat Bowling Green on the Smurf Turf.

Player of the Game : DeMaundray Woolridge, RB, Idaho (107 rushing yards, one TD)

Texas Bowl - Dec 30, 2009 View Boxscore >

Missouri
25.3

Navy
12.7

Highlight : Mizzou’s more balanced offensive attack prevails over the triple-option Midshipmen, who can’t hang tough with just seven passing attempts.

Player of the Game : Danario Alexander, WR, Missouri (94 receiving yards, one TD)

Armed Forces Bowl - Dec 31, 2009 View Boxscore >

Houston
27.4

Air Force
22.7

Highlight : Houston ruins Air Force’s third consecutive trip to Fort Worth as the nation’s top passing offense prevails against the country’s top passing defense.

Player of the Game : Case Keenum, QB, Houston (231 passing yards, two TDs)

Insight Bowl - Dec 31, 2009 View Boxscore >

Minnesota
18.8

Iowa State
19.1

Highlight : Minnesota and Iowa State clash in a Border Battle of epic defensive proportions as the two teams combine for just over 600 yards of total offense.

Player of the Game : Adam Weber, QB, Minnesota (194 passing yards, one TD).

Chick-fil-A Bowl - Dec 31, 2009 View Boxscore >

Virginia Tech
26.3

Tennessee
16.7

Highlight : The Hokies don’t let the disappointment of missing out on the BCS, using their rushing attack to take down the upstart Volunteers.

Player of the Game : Ryan Williams, RB, Virginia Tech (160 total yards, 139 rushing yards, on TD)

Brut Sun Bowl - Dec 31, 2009 View Boxscore >

Stanford
29.3

Oklahoma
20.1

Highlight : With a running back in the mix for college football’s top award, the Cardinal run rampant over the Sooners, closing out a disappointing year for Oklahoma.

Player of the Game : Toby Gerhart, RB, Stanford (168 total yards, 151 rushing, two TDs)

Rose Bowl Presented By Citi - Jan 01, 2010 View Boxscore >

Oregon
21.5

Ohio State
12.9

Highlight : Oregon’s defense shuts down Ohio State quarterback Terrelle Pryor and the Ducks let one of the nation’s most underrated running backs single-handedly take down the Buckeyes.

Player of the Game : LaMichael James, RB, Oregon (104 rushing yards, one TD)

Allstate Sugar Bowl - Jan 01, 2010 View Boxscore >

Cincinnati
23.8

Florida
21.1

Highlight : After putting together an epic winning streak, is it possible that Tim Tebow and the Gators close out the year with consecutive losses? Tony Pike and the Bearcats make it happen.

Player of the Game : Pike, QB, Cincinnati (273 passing yards, two TDs)

Outback Bowl - Jan 01, 2010 View Boxscore >

Auburn
32.5

Northwestern
11.0

Highlight : By far the biggest romp of the bowl season belongs to Auburn as the Tigers’ defense stymies Northwestern’s running game to the tune of just 3.0 yards per carry.

Player of the Game : Chris Todd, QB, Auburn (247 passing yards, two TDs)

Capital One Bowl - Jan 01, 2010 View Boxscore >

Penn State
17.1

LSU
14.3

Highlight : In a battle of teams that just missed out on the BCS and teams that failed to win their biggest games of the year, the Nittany Lions come out on top thanks to a defense that barely allows 250 yards.

Player of the Game : Evan Royster, RB, Penn State (96 rushing yards, one TD)

Gator Bowl - Jan 01, 2010 View Boxscore >

West Virginia
28.0

Florida State
15.8

Highlight : Mountaineers seemed to pick up steam over the final two weeks, while Seminoles seemed to lose momentum along with their quarterback, leading to a West Virginia romp.

Player of the Game : Noel Devine, RB, West Virginia (101 rushing yards, one TD)

AutoZone Liberty Bowl - Jan 02, 2010 View Boxscore >

Arkansas
28.3

East Carolina
24.0

Highlight : Arkansas’ transfer quarterback continues to prove that he made the right decision, capping off a solid season as the Razorbacks take down the Conference USA champs.

Player of the Game : Ryan Mallett, QB, Arkansas (265 passing yards, two TDs)

International Bowl - Jan 02, 2010 View Boxscore >

Northern Illinois
22.5

South Florida
16.9

Highlight : After once seeming like a Big East contender, South Florida finishes off a late-season collapse with a bowl loss against one of the country’s most quietly impressive defenses.

Player of the Game : Chad Spann, RB, Northern Illinois (92 rushing yards, one TD)

AT&T Cotton Bowl - Jan 02, 2010 View Boxscore >

Mississippi
22.9

Oklahoma State
21.8

Highlight : Jevan Snead continues his turbulent season by matching his touchdowns with interceptions, but the Rebels still come out on top in a battle of teams that thought they’d be playing for more.

Player of the Game : Dexter McCluster, RB, Mississippi (120 total yards, 81 on the ground, one TD)

Papajohns.com Bowl - Jan 02, 2010 View Boxscore >

Connecticut
19.7

South Carolina
16.6

Highlight : Huskies close out what has been an emotional season with a narrow victory over the Ole Ball Coach thanks to a dual-threat attack on the ground.

Player of the Game : Jordan Todman, RB, Connecticut (115 total yards, 94 on the ground, one TD)

Valero Alamo Bowl - Jan 02, 2010 View Boxscore >

Texas Tech
30.2

Michigan State
18.6

Highlight : Michigan State closes out a catastrophic bowl season for the Big Ten by giving up about 400 yards of total offense to a Red Raiders offense that’s not as powerful as previous years.

Player of the Game : Taylor Potts, QB, Texas Tech (236 passing yards, two TDs)

Tostitos Fiesta Bowl - Jan 04, 2010 View Boxscore >

TCU
29.4

Boise State
23.1

Highlight : In the first battle of unbeatens in the bowl season, TCU’s ground attack rushes for nearly 250 yards, using three backs to run roughshod over the Broncos.

Player of the Game : Joseph Turner, RB, TCU (91 rushing yards, one TD)

FedEx Orange Bowl - Jan 05, 2010 View Boxscore >

Iowa
23.0

Georgia Tech
22.0

Highlight : Iowa had five of 12 games during the regular season come down to a field goal or less, so why not one more as Hawkeyes prevail over Yellow Jackets’ ground game.

Player of the Game : Adam Robinson, RB, Penn State (126 total yards, 111 rushing, one TD)

GMAC Bowl - Jan 06, 2010 View Boxscore >

Troy
26.6

Central Michigan
21.8

Highlight : Central Michigan’s Dan LeFevour,once considered a longshot candidate for the Heisman, is outdueled by Troy signal-caller Levi Brown.

Player of the Game : Brown, QB, Troy (247 passing yards, two TDs)

Citi National Championship Game - Jan 07, 2010 View Boxscore >

Alabama
21.9

Texas
12.6

Highlight : Mark Ingram comes up big under the bright lights once again, carrying the Crimson Tide to a perfect season and the national championship against the Longhorns.

Player of the Game : Ingram, RB, Alabama (116 total yards, 97 on the ground, one TD)

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