Locks, Likelys, and Long Shots. Predicting the 2010 NBA All Star Game

 I was tempted to give an all knowing opinion piece but changed my mind after reading hundreds of very bad, slanted opinions of improbable rosters on message boards. Man has BR spoiled me for informed debate, even if i disagree with someone I can almost always see where there coming from and realise it's an educated opinion on BR. Then of course you have some message boards where homers of their favorite teams or players go at it in a machismo way rather then on substance. Silly ain't it?

 A lot of questions (on the starters anyway) will be answered when the first of three rounds of early voting arrives around December 11th. Followed by December 25th and January 6th respectively. With the starters announced on Thursday January 21st and the reserves a week later. (The three early voting dates are from last years release schedule) The 29th is the big day in my view, that's when the coaches picks come in and the limits of the 12 man roster rears its ugly head.

 Last years voting results are here: http://www.nba.com/2009/allstar2009/01/22/allstar_final.allstar09.20090122/index.html

 Look at Stoudemire's votes, I really doubt Bynum will pass him in the fan vote for center. Also remember, it is not mandatory for the coaches to pick a second center from the list on the ballot. It happened in the East just last year. But with the Lakers as champs, will the coaches reward them with three players? I'm guessing only one of either Gasol or Bynum makes it.

 Last years final roster is here http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_NBA_All-Star_Game

 This is important to see who wont be coming back: Mo Williams, Jameer Nelson, Devin Harris, David West, Ray Allen, Rashard Lewis. Even with 26 spots last year there were some notable snubs and this year will be no different. On to my predictions.

 As i see it, in the West there are seven locks which only leaves five remaining spots.

West Gaurds

locks: Bryant Nash Paul

with a second tier of Roy Williams Billups

and a third tier of Parker Ellis & Kidd (the game is in Dallas after all)

West Forwards

three locks Anthony Duncan and Nowitzki

likely Boozer Durant

and Gasol last

West Center

Stoudemire voted in by the fans

and Bynum or Gasol will go, not both

 So my guess for the fan voting in the starters category based on last years totals and this years play is

Bryant Nash Anthony Duncan Stoudemire

with Paul and Nowitzki as locks by the coaches.

So that leaves five spots remaining

two of these three gaurds will make it Billups Williams and Roy

three of these four F/C will make it Boozer Durant Gasol Bynum

 On to the East

Gaurds: Wade and Johnson are the most deserving

with a log jam of a second tier of Rose Rondo Carter Bibby Jennings

and long shots of Arenas and Allen (Arenas very long)

and don't forget the 165 pound (sopping wet) elephant in the room of Iverson possibly making it in by the fans as a starter.

 Here's a hint: if you don't think Iverson is deserving of a spot make sure you vote for Carter. Neither Rose, Rondo or Johnson will probably have enough votes to catch A.I. and Wade is a lock for the top spot.

Forwards: James and Garnett will start again even though Bosh deserves it more.

Second tier Bosh Pierce and Granger

and long shots of Smith Wallace (which Wallace am i talking about?) and Jamison

The East center will be Howard and Shaq is anybody's guess on what the coaches will do (personally i say no thanks).

 Okay, seven locks in the East: Wade Johnson James Garnett Bosh Pierce Howard

with five openings left the coaches will pick Granger Shaq and Carter

and the remaining two coming from Rondo Bibby Smith or one of either Rose Jennings Jamison.

 What do you think? We'll all find out January 22nd.

 Oh, by the way if you want to see the ballot without having to log in/sign up to the All Star website, here's a link to a list of players on the ballot.

http://www.nba.com/2009/news/features/11/09/allstar.ballot.2010/index.html

 Notable exceptions being Iverson is still in the West, and wild cards/write-ins/hometown favorites Brandon Jennings, Chris Kaman, Eric Gordon, Ben Wallace, Joakim Noah,  Zach Randolph (a top 20 scorer), Yao Ming, and Yi Jianlian are not listed and must be written in. (Chinese demacracy at its finest)

 Just one more thing, (in my worst Columbo impression) there are a few more players at least in the discussion. If only just to eliminate some of them immediately after mentioning them. Mehmet Okur, Al Jefferson, LaMarcus Aldridge, Trevor Ariza, Richard Jefferson, Shawn Marion, Paul Millsap, Ron Artest(ing my patience), Josh Howard, Manu Ginobili, Rasheed Wallace, Ben Gordon, Andre Iguodala, Hedo Turkoglu, Jamal Crawford, Kevin Martin, Rudy Gay, and Greg (sorry 'bout your knee) Oden.

UPDATE JAN 6th

16 of the 24 players are locked in.

5 east starters wade iverson james garnett howard

4 locks by the coaches johnson carter bosh pierce

(only) 3 openings for rondo granger smith or shaq

longshots g.wallace iguodala jamison

5 west starters bryant nash anthony nowitzki stoudemire

2 locks by the coaches paul duncan

(only) 5 openings williams billups durant gasol boozer

longshots bynum kidd roy

so while making your pics remember there are only 8 in doubt