Looking Ahead To The Browns Draft

I realize it's a little early to start talking about the draft as their is still 6 games to go in the season, but the loss to the Lions realistically put us into a top 3 pick. So I feel there is no better time then now to start discussing the draft. As the college football season comes to an end, the top 10 players in this draft pretty much have been distinguished.

So lets talk a little bit about the draft and the scenarios that surround the Browns.

The clear cut top 4 picks at this point are and in no particular order: Ndamukong Suh (DT - Nebraska), Eric Berry (DB - Tennessee), Russell Okung (OT - Oklahoma State), Gerald McCoy (DT - Oklahoma).

Those to me are the top 4 players in this draft. Although their are no QB's on that list, that doesn't mean one won't be taken in the top 5, but for the sake of this article I'm not including them because I believe Brady Quinn will remain our QB next year. I don't discard the fact that we could take a QB, but again for the sake of this article I'm looking at it from the standpoint that Quinn is our guy.

Ok, now back to the draft talk.

Ndamukong Suh is an absolute animal, and a pass rushing force. My problem with him is he's a waste of a talent in the 3-4 because DT's aren't utilized the same as in the 4-3. If we did make the switch to the 4-3 he would be a solid pick, but I'm approaching this article under the impression we'll remain in the 3-4. Granted he would be a handful and draw the attention you'd want out of your DE in the 3-4, he would be highly under-utilized at what he does best, and that's getting after the Quarterback, and doesn't immediately help us.

Gerald McCoy fits the same mold as Ndamukong Suh, but is a more polished football player. He like Suh would be fine as a 3-4 DE but would benefit a 4-3 team more. He has the potential to be a great DT in the 4-3 and would again be a waste as a 3-4 DE from the standpoint that he is a pass rusher.

Russell Okung has become the best Offensive Tackle in this draft. He has very good footwork and handles the speed rush very well. My problem? We already have Joe Thomas so we'd be paying a RT top 3 money which really isn't something that happens ever.

Eric Berry is a great coverage DB. I say DB because at Tennessee he is used as Nickelback, Strong Safety and Linebacker because of the impact he makes in coverage and how he can shut players down. He excels in man coverage and he has blazing fast speed. Many people have compared him to Ed Reed and what team wouldn't want an Ed Reed flying around in their secondary? Something else to consider with Berry is he could play Cornerback as well because of his 4.3 speed.

Now conventional wisdom tells us a few things. "You only take a QB, OT or DL with a top 3 pick". It also tells us "You don't take a DB in the top 3 because of positional value." What that means is the "experts" feel that only those 3 positions are worth the money that a top 3 pick demands so for your money you'd be best off to take one of those positions.

Heres my take on this year.

Being in the top 3, and quite possibly the #1 pick in this draft, it's gonna be almost impossible to trade out of that pick, so therefore we'll be forced to pick. As the conventional wisdom I just wrote says, we'd almost be obligated to take a Jimmy Clausen, Ndamukong Suh, or Gerald McCoy because of the positional value they share. But I say forget about conventional wisdom and take the best player available, and that to me is Eric Berry. Our secondary is horrible, and when you get a chance at one of the best Safety prospects in a long time you almost have to take it. My view on this situation is why waste a pick on a guy who is gonna excel in a 4-3 and go to waste in a 3-4 simply because of situational value? That to me doesn't make a lot of sense.

The 2 guys that benefit us immediately are Eric Berry and Russell Okung. They fit similiar situations because Berry is a DB and would be taken in the top 3 which isn't supposed to happen, and Okung would be a RT for us and you don't pay RT's top 3 money. For what it's worth I take one of those 2 over anyone else simply because they help and benefit us immediately. If you fall into the positional value game, you're taking a DE who will help you but not to the degree that the DB or OT do. With this team we need to take the guys who are gonna help us the most with that 1st pick and it's gotta be Berry or Okung given the position they play and how big of a need it is for us. For what it's worth, I believe Okung is out of the discussion because elite OT's can be had every year, and the depth this year carries good talent into the 3rd round, so I wouldn't touch him with a stick. Rare DB's only come around every 10 or so years, so you need to snatch them up when you can.

I know a lot of people think that we will trade down in this draft, but that is highly unlikely. Let me explain. The NFL teams use something called a "Draft Pick Value Chart". When trade ups are offered to teams, they look at this chart and see if what they were offered was worth their pick. If we're picking #1 overall our pick is worth 3000 points, #2 is worth 2600 points, #3 is worth 2200 points, #4 is worth 1800 points and #5 is worth 1700 points.

To put this into perspective, if we're the #1 pick then our pick is worth 3000 points. If the team with the #2 pick wanted to trade with us, they'd have to add in a 3rd round pick (260 points) and a 4th round pick (99 points) on top of their #2 pick to equal the points of our #1 pick. That is a lot just for the #2 team to trade up, now factor in any other team trying to trade up, they essentially would have to give up their whole draft in order to move into our #1 pick. With that being said, of course a team could add in players to cover the value of the point difference, but a lot of teams don't have the kind of players at their disposal to add into the trade to even it out. Therefore we WILL be picking with our pick.

Here is a link to the value chart so you can understand exactly what I mean about what draft picks are worth and what draft picks a team would have to give up in order to trade up for our pick:

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/draft06/news/story?id=2410670

What I wanna know is, given that we pretty much are forced to pick with our pick, who do you think we should pick?