How Matt Ryan to Colts Impacts Jimmy Garoppolo, Baker Mayfield and NFL QB Market

The NFL's quarterback carousel took another spin Monday.

After striking out on Deshaun Watson last week, the Atlanta Falcons sent longtime quarterback Matt Ryan to the Indianapolis Colts for a 2022 third-round pick, according to Ian Rapoport, Mike Garafalo and Tom Pelissero of NFL Network.

This trade thrusts the Falcons into a full-blown rebuild, gives the Colts their fifth new starting quarterback in as many years, and it leaves one fewer seat for this offseason's game of musical chairs under center.

After dealing Carson Wentz to the Washington Commanders earlier this month, the Colts possessed a playoff-caliber roster save for their massive hole at quarterback. Ryan will now have the chance to do what Wentz couldn't and guide the Colts back to the postseason.

Ryan played relatively well in 2021, posting a passer rating over 90 for the sixth straight season while throwing for just under 4,000 yards with 20 touchdowns. He'll now leave one of the most talent-deficient teams in the league to play alongside All-Pro running back Jonathan Taylor and budding young wideout Michael Pittman Jr. 

The Falcons are swallowing an NFL-record $40.5 million dead cap hit from this trade, according to ESPN's Field Yates. They'll also have a new starting quarterback for the first time since selecting Ryan with the No. 1 overall pick in 2008.

Shortly after trading Ryan to the Colts, the Falcons agreed to terms on a two-year contract with Marcus Mariota, per Rapoport. They could always draft a quarterback—perhaps as early as No. 8 overall—but Mariota has started 61 games over his career and is familiar with Falcons head coach Arthur Smith from their time together with the Tennessee Titans.

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The quarterback carousel didn't stop there. The New Orleans Saints also agreed to terms on a two-year, $28 million contract with Jameis Winston, according to Pelissero. The 28-year-old, who threw for 1,170 yards and 14 touchdowns in seven games last year before tearing his ACL, will receive $21 million in guarantees.

The Ryan, Mariota and Winston moves further complicate a quarterback trade market headlined by Baker Mayfield of the Browns and Jimmy Garoppolo of the San Francisco 49ers. The Colts were reportedly Mayfield's preferred destination, according to Jeff Howe of The Athletic, while Rapoport mentioned them as a potential destination for Garoppolo.

There are now only two or three NFL teams who could be in the market for a veteran upgrade at the position this offseason, and none of those are guaranteed to make a switch.

Carolina Panthers

The Falcons might have their pick of this year's quarterback draft class at No. 8 overall. But the Panthers, who pick sixth overall, also may beat them to it.

Ever since purchasing the team in 2018, Panthers owner David Tepper has made it no secret that he wanted to upgrade at the position. The Panthers have been aggressive in that regard, but so far the results have been less than impressive.

The Teddy Bridgewater signing in 2020 and the trade for Sam Darnold in 2021 produced mixed results for Carolina at best. The Panthers were one of four finalists for Watson, but that pursuit fell short.

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Rapoport mentioned the Panthers as a potential suitor for Mayfield, but that doesn't seem especially likely. They already have a ton of money tied up in a top-five pick from the 2018 draft who has failed to meet expectations. Garoppolo seems like an even bigger long shot, as he's older, has a lower ceiling, and the Panthers don't have a strong supporting cast to put around him.

Whether it's this year or next, the Panthers are going to invest a first-round pick in a quarterback soon. But as things stand now, Carolina will likely roll Darnold out in Week 1, even if it's as little more than a lame-duck starter.

Projected Week 1 Starter: Sam Darnold

Houston Texans

The Texans selected Davis Mills in the third round last year, and he made 11 starts as a rookie, finishing with 2,664 passing yards, 16 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. The former Stanford standout won only two of those starts, but Texans general manager Nick Caserio told reporters last week that he could be a potential long-term option.

"Davis has certainly earned an opportunity here, and that's kind of the extent of what he's earned," Caserio said. "I think he's excited about the chances that he has in front of him, and we'll see how it all unfolds. I wouldn't jump to any conclusions. Davis had opportunities last year and did a nice job."

Mills ultimately projects more as a backup than an NFL starter. And Houston could have its pick of this year's rookie quarterbacks, as it picks third, and the Jacksonville Jaguars and Detroit Lions figure to address other positions ahead of them.

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A veteran addition is less likely. If the Texans had any interest in Mayfield, he likely would have been included in the Watson deal, and they're a lot more than a Garoppolo away from being a contender in the AFC South.

Much like the Panthers, the Texans aren't likely to address the quarterback position again until April 28 at the earliest. And they'll probably roll with a stopgap starter for the season opener. 

Projected Week 1 Starter: Davis Mills

Seattle Seahawks

It's dawn of a new era in Seattle—an era that will not include Russell Wilson.

With Wilson now in Denver, Drew Lock, who came over in the Wilson trade, is presently penciled in as the team's starting quarterback. Seattle general manager John Schneider told reporters that he has confidence in the 25-year-old, but the Seahawks will continue to explore other options at the position as well:

"We'll continue to explore options, but we have a ton of faith in Drew. We're excited about it. We're excited about a change of scenery for him. I know a couple of my buddies were trying to acquire him all last spring and into the fall. He's a guy that, in my opinion, the media has beat down a little bit. We're excited to get him into our culture with our coaching staff, and we'll continue to look for guys to compete with him."

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With longtime stalwarts like Wilson and linebacker Bobby Wagner gone, Seattle is probably closer to a rebuilding team than a real threat in the NFC West. But even without those stars, the Seahawks sport the best roster of the three teams listed here. They also have the latest draft pick of this group, possessing the ninth overall pick, which they obtained in the Wilson deal.

CBS Sports' Josina Anderson reported that Seattle would "prefer to add an experienced veteran starting quarterback" and has already kicked the tires on trading for Ryan and Mayfield. 

The Niners aren't likely to trade Garoppolo to a division rival. That leaves Mayfield for the Seahawks.

Projected Week 1 Starter: Baker Mayfield