Playoffs, Play-in or Lottery: Predictions for NBA's Bubble Teams
With about a month left in the regular season, we already have all the proof we need that recent changes to NBA convention—led by the addition of the play-in round and flattened lottery odds—are working.
The fact that 16 teams in the league qualify for bubble status is proof of that.
In years past, we'd often have the playoff picture all but settled by now. Maybe a team or two would have an outside shot of running hot and overtaking an injury-hit squad for the eighth spot, but for the most part, this final stretch would be all about coasting or tanking. These days, many more teams have reasons to keep fighting.
We don't have a hard-and-fast rule for who earns the on-the-bubble designation. Basically, if it doesn't seem like a top-six playoff spot or a lottery trip are certain for the team in question, we're tossing it into that bloated middle and sorting it into one of three categories.
Based on quality of play to this point, health, strength of remaining schedule and anything else that might help in the guesswork, we'll dump these 16 teams into the playoffs, play-in or lottery buckets.
The Too-Good and Too-Bad Exclusions
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The following teams are too far down the standings and/or have no intention of piling up wins to qualify for bubble consideration. The advent of the play-in round added value to the tail end of the regular season, but it didn't eradicate tanking, rebuilding or plain old failure entirely.
Eastern Conference: Detroit Pistons, Indiana Pacers, Orlando Magic
Western Conference: Houston Rockets, Oklahoma City Thunder
On the other end of the competitive spectrum, we've got a class of teams that have won enough to rise above the fray. These are our locks to finish among the top six in each conference, listed alphabetically.
Eastern Conference: Boston Celtics, Chicago Bulls, Miami Heat, Milwaukee Bucks, Philadelphia 76ers
Western Conference: Golden State Warriors, Memphis Grizzlies, Phoenix Suns, Utah Jazz
Eastern Conference: Atlanta Hawks
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It appears it'll take something very close to a .500 record to secure a play-in spot in the East.
If you'd told the Atlanta Hawks that they might juuuuust barely meet that standard after reaching the conference finals in 2021, they probably would have laughed at you...or asked which race of aliens had abducted Trae Young.
Yet here the Hawks are, scraping by on the strength of a top-five offense led by a (not abducted) Young. That scoring attack has been just good enough to offset a defense putting up a resistance level best compared to wet tissue paper.
Atlanta has the easiest remaining schedule of any Eastern Conference bubble team, and John Collins is back after missing seven games with a foot strain. His return takes on extra importance with the Hawks lacking frontcourt depth due to Onyeka Okongwu only recently exiting concussion protocols.
While the overall record and defensive numbers fail to impress, don't overlook the fact that Atlanta has the East's fourth-highest net rating (behind Boston, Miami and Milwaukee) since mid-January. It's too late for the Hawks to crack the top six in their conference, but they've still got a shot at the No. 7 spot.
Prediction: Play-In
Eastern Conference: Brooklyn Nets
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If the Brooklyn Nets manage to secure one of the four play-in spots, the hard work will be far from over.
That modest achievement would pit them against a theoretically beatable opponent (or opponents, depending on which of the 7-through-10 spots they earn), only to then trigger a potential matchup against one of the East's top two seeds in a seven-game series. That looks like a real problem for a squad that has gone 6-17 against the nine teams we labeled playoff locks.
Or, at least it looked like a real problem until Brooklyn took the Sixers apart on Thursday.
The Nets will cross that bridge when/if they come to it, and it'd be irresponsible not to mention how little predictive value the season to date has offered on a team beset by injury, controversy and turnover. The Nets-as-juggernaut angle is still mostly theoretical.
Brooklyn has Kevin Durant back, Ben Simmons is ramping up and it's possible Kyrie Irving will become a full-time participant at some point before season's end. Seth Curry is offsetting the absence of Joe Harris, whose season is done. But on defense, Brooklyn is still barely ahead of the Hawks, Hornets and Wizards among East play-in pursuers.
Ultimately, this is a bet on raw talent, which Brooklyn still has in abundance—not quite enough to overcome all the aforementioned obstacles and climb up to sixth, but enough to maintain play-in position.
Prediction: Play-In
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Eastern Conference: Charlotte Hornets
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Deadline acquisition Montrezl Harrell hasn't solved the Charlotte Hornets' defensive issues at center. They still spend most games toggling between the competence Mason Plumlee provides on D or offensive punch Harrell and PJ Washington offer at the 5.
The offense-defense swings, based on which center is in the game, have been wild for the Hornets all year, and Charlotte's lack of a quality two-way option at the position is a key reason it has little chance of gaining ground on the sixth-seeded Cavaliers.
In fairness, the Hornets have actually sported the No. 11 defense since the middle of January. But based on the frequency of shots they've allowed at the rim and from deep during that stretch, that apparent defensive competence is probably a mirage.
LaMelo Ball has only completed one month this season with a true shooting percentage above the league average, and his crummy conversion rate on two-pointers continues to be a real concern. Smart defenses are increasingly running him off the line and staying home on shooters, forcing him to finish inside the arc.
Charlotte needs one more capable connector on offense. Gordon Hayward's potential return, looking likelier than it has in a while, could be just what the team needs to secure its grip on one of the top two play-in positions.
Prediction: Play-In
Eastern Conference: Cleveland Cavaliers
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The Cleveland Cavaliers only missed out on being a playoff lock in the East because of Jarrett Allen's fractured finger, which will shelve him indefinitely.
Presumptive Rookie of the Year Evan Mobley is already good enough to take over full-time center duties without his twin-tower teammate. He took the Toronto Raptors apart when Allen went out after just 10 minutes of action in a March 6 win, totaling 20 points, 17 boards and three blocks. But it would be a disservice to the season Allen has had to act like the big man's absence won't matter.
Instead of having two of the top three high-volume rim-protectors in the league, Cleveland will play down the stretch with just one. For a team that has blown away preseason projections on the strength of an elite defense, that's no small thing.
The Cavs sit sixth in the East, comfortably clear of the seventh-seeded Raptors, who have injury issues of their own. OG Anunoby is also out with a fractured finger. Protect those digits, people.
Darius Garland, Mobley and rejuvenated bench stalwart Kevin Love should give the Cavs enough juice to hang onto their top-six playoff spot, and the top of the East is still so condensed that a hot 10-day stretch could vault them all the way up to second.
Prediction: Playoffs
Eastern Conference: New York Knicks
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Three straight wins to close out the week have the New York Knicks within three-and-a-half games of the 10th-seeded Atlanta Hawks. Full disclosure, prior to that strong stretch, New York was among the lottery locks and wouldn't have earned a mention here.
A trio of double-digit wins, with the latest being a 30-point pummeling of the Mavericks on Wednesday, changed things.
Season-long pariah Julius Randle has led the charge, with RJ Barrett (overall, still a little too high on volume and too low on efficiency) right there with him averaging 23.7 points per game across those three victories. We can't read too much into such a small section of the season, but it's still true that another couple of streaks like this, and the Knicks could find themselves playing a game or two after the end of the regular season after all.
That outcome wouldn't alleviate all the frustration that built up this season as New York's defense underwhelmed and its offensive upgrades failed to make a difference. But it might cool Tom Thibodeau's seat a degree or two.
We're getting ahead of ourselves. One three-game run doesn't outweigh months of suspect play on both ends.
Prediction: Lottery
Eastern Conference: Toronto Raptors
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Three Toronto Raptors—Fred VanVleet, Pascal Siakam and OG Anunoby—rank among the top five in minutes per game this season. Scottie Barnes is in the top 15, and Gary Trent Jr. is a couple of ticks away from giving the Raptors five of the top 20 spots in that category.
There's something to be said for getting your best players on the floor as often as possible, but the Raptors' approach to playing time cuts against the trend of load management trimming minutes across the league. If Toronto runs out of gas or breaks down, it won't be hard to figure out why.
VanVleet and Anunoby have both missed time lately, killing Toronto's spacing and straining an already thin rotation. Malachi Flynn was looking good in VanVleet's stead, but a hamstring strain now has him out indefinitely.
FiveThirtyEight sees Toronto finishing 44-38, just ahead of the Hawks and Nets and good for seventh in the conference, but behind Cleveland (projected at 46-36).
There's downside risk if the Raptors lose more bodies in the next few weeks, but that projection feels about right. Catching Cleveland is unlikely, but it'd take quite a collapse to fall beneath the Nets, Hawks, Hornets and Wizards.
Prediction: Play-In
Eastern Conference: Washington Wizards
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Even with Bradley Beal's season done and zero guarantee Kristaps Porzingis will stay healthy enough to be a meaningful contributor over the next few weeks, the fact remains that Washington is two games ahead of New York in the standings and has been the better team since Feb. 1. In that span, the Wizards are 6-9, while the Knicks, even with that three-game winning streak, are just 4-11.
There's even an argument in favor of Washington having a serious chance to climb as high as eighth in the conference.
The Wizards have a relatively soft schedule ahead (although so do the Nets, Hornets and Hawks), and both Kyle Kuzma and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope have been running hot since the All-Star break. Perhaps most importantly, Washington is still bringing it in the effort and enthusiasm departments.
It's too hard to pick the Wizards over of the more star-laden and healthy teams ahead of them, but at the very least, they're going to compete. Get Beal back, add a lotto pick and keep building on the positive developments of this year, and Washington's arrow is angling up for next season.
As for this one? Yeah, sorry. No play-in for these guys.
Prediction: Lottery
Western Conference: Dallas Mavericks
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If you want to keep things as simple as possible, the Dallas Mavericks have what looks increasingly like an elite defense, plus a top-flight superstar offensive engine in Luka Doncic.
Generally speaking, that's a championship recipe. So making the playoffs is a given. Analysis over.
If you need a little more detail than that, consider the positive impact of deadline acquisition Spencer Dinwiddie, who's been shredding opposing defenses since his arrival, especially in the fourth quarter. If the Mavs finally have a shot-generating option to punish opponents that key on Doncic late in games, they should probably be considered a contender.
The Dinwiddie-as-elite-closer sample is small, but he's been a clutch dynamo before. In 2018, he was among the league's best close-and-late operators. Those stats are fickle, but Dinwiddie's ability to get to the rim is real, and you can't argue with what he's contributed to the Mavericks in his short stay.
Dallas has been running hot since the calendar flipped to 2022, compiling the West's second-best record in that span. A surge to second in the conference feels more likely than a fall to seventh.
Prediction: Playoffs
Western Conference: Denver Nuggets
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Denver Nuggets skeptics could note that the team's success depends too heavily on Nikola Jokic continuing to do the impossible. But with the reigning MVP bettering last year's numbers and making the spectacular look routine, "impossible" is losing its meaning.
Besides, Denver's winning ways may not depend entirely on Jokic for much longer. Both Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. could be back for a few games prior to the beginning of the postseason.
The return of two key Nuggets would change the team's playoff outlook considerably, but reinforcements won't be necessary to retain a top-six spot. Denver's defense has been among the league's best over the last month, and Jokic is getting sufficient scoring assistance from Will Barton, Aaron Gordon, Monte Morris, Jeff Green and deadline add Bryn Forbes, all of whom are averaging double figures.
Even DeMarcus Cousins is chipping in with the occasional throwback performance. He hung 31 points on the Houston Rockets in a blowout win on March 4, needing only 23 minutes to do all that damage.
Jokic is deservedly getting credit for carrying a short-handed team, but Denver has a little more supporting talent than that narrative suggests. This is a playoff team with a startlingly high ceiling if it gets healthy.
Prediction: Playoffs
Western Conference: Minnesota Timberwolves
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Don't look now, but the Minnesota Timberwolves are only a couple of stingy defensive efforts from ranking among the top 10 in efficiency on both ends of the floor.
That's typically the mark of a team in the contender class, and while nobody's saying the Wolves are primed for a long playoff run in the rugged West, that's a big deal for a franchise that has seen the postseason just once since George W. Bush's first term in office.
Unfortunately for Minnesota, which has had to deal with the recent injury-related absence of key starters D'Angelo Russell and Anthony Edwards, the two teams immediately ahead of it show no signs of letting up.
The Wolves went 9-2 from Feb. 13 to March 9, losing ground on the Nuggets and picking up minimal gains on Mavericks in that span. That illustrates the unlikelihood of a standings ascent.
Minnesota is a rock-solid bet to finish seventh in the West, giving it home-court advantage in the play-in. Given the quality of the clubs ahead of them, that's the best the Wolves can hope for.
Prediction: Play-In
Western Conference: LA Clippers
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You've got to hand it to the eighth-seeded LA Clippers. If the old playoff format were still in existence, the chasm separating them from the No. 9 Los Angeles Lakers would make them a near certainty to reach the dance.
That the Clips have managed this while getting zero games from Kawhi Leonard and 26 from Paul George is a testament to would-be role players rising to the moment (a moment that has lasted months, by the way) and head coach Tyronn Lue's resourcefulness.
Neither Leonard nor George has been officially ruled out for the rest of the season, but as the days and weeks roll by, their returns feel increasingly unlikely. We've had radio silence on Leonard during his rehab from a torn ACL, and a report from The Athletic's Law Murray that George still can't shoot outside 17 feet doesn't inspire confidence. Don't forget, Norman Powell also hasn't played since Feb. 10 and has no return timetable.
That just means the Clippers will have to complete this stretch run with the same underwhelming offense and stellar defense that has dragged them this far.
Prediction: Play-In
Western Conference: Los Angeles Lakers
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For over a month, the Los Angeles Lakers have been, by far, the worst team in the West among those actually still trying to win games.
Anthony Davis' injury has forced L.A. to turn to smaller lineups with LeBron James at center for much of that stretch, and they've predictably provided pitiable levels of defensive resistance. The shocker is the total lack of offensive potency.
Downsizing typically comes at a cost. The Lakers had to know they'd suffer on D. But the benefit, quicker lineups that spread the floor and score in bunches, just hasn't been there.
And that's with James setting late-career scoring records in a campaign that, if the Lakers were winning more games, would have him in the thick of the MVP race.
If Davis really does make it back in time to matter during the play-in round, and if James isn't 12 feet under, the Lakers will pose a threat to whomever they play. But figuring out how dangerous they might be at whatever passes for full strength is a task beyond the scope of this exercise.
A top-six spot is totally out of the question, and thanks to the larger number of teams in the West that have quit on the season, falling out of the play-in round is also pretty far-fetched. The Lakers are going to stumble their way into the ninth or 10th spot.
Prediction: Play-In
Western Conference: New Orleans Pelicans
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The 12 losses they suffered in their first 13 games still count, but the New Orleans Pelicans aren't the same team that got off to that nightmare start. Since Nov. 13, they're 26-27 with a positive point differential.
That respectable level of play doesn't mark the Pels as a serious postseason threat, even in the unlikely event Zion Williamson sees game action this season. But it's better than what any of the teams trailing 10th-seeded New Orleans can claim, and it's also markedly superior, in terms of net rating, than either of the Los Angeles teams has produced.
Just to drive it home with a mostly irrelevant cross-conference comparison, the Pelicans have a better net rating over the last four months than the playoff-lock Chicago Bulls and Brooklyn Nets.
Brandon Ingram has made strides as a playmaker and two-way force, and his commitment on D is a major part of some impressive teamwide growth on that end. The Pelicans can survive his hamstring strain, which may cost him a week or more, because of the tone he set prior to injury. Credit is also due for first-year head coach Willie Green; he gambled on a two-big frontcourt look featuring Jaxson Hayes and Jonas Valanciunas. Those two, when teamed with CJ McCollum, have produced better than break-even results.
Speaking of, McCollum hasn't missed a shot (or at least that's how it feels) since coming aboard at the deadline, which means the Pels will have a puncher's chance to win the two play-in games it'll take to secure an actual playoff spot. That's assuming his stay in health and safety protocols isn't too long.
Prediction: Play-In
Western Conference: The Sad-Sack Trio
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Basic math saps the intrigue from these last three bubble teams. We're out of play-in spots for the Portland Trail Blazers, Sacramento Kings and San Antonio Spurs.
Of course, the fact that all three of them have been waving giant white flags for a while now (the Kings' is probably upside down, and not actually a flag, and, oh no, they just slipped on a banana peel and dropped it into a puddle) was also a pretty good tip-off that they were ticketed for the lottery.
The Blazers, Kings and Spurs are still technically close enough to the 10th seed to warrant mention and avoid the lottery-lock designation we gave season-long tankers like Oklahoma City and Houston. But I think we all know including them as bubble teams is is just a formality.
Portland Trail Blazers
Witness one of the great pack-it-in jobs in recent memory!
The Blazers shut down Damian Lillard in January, dealt CJ McCollum and Norman Powell prior to the trade deadline and unofficially put Jusuf Nurkic on the shelf shortly thereafter. They then promptly lost their first six games after the All-Star break by an average of 32.3 points.
Anfernee Simons looks like a star, but don't be surprised if Portland gives him ample rest down the stretch.
The standings may say the Blazers are still within striking distance of the 10th seed, but they're a much better bet to post the league's worst record from here on in.
Sacramento Kings
The Kings traded fan favorite and potential star Tyrese Haliburton for Domantas Sabonis at the deadline, firmly putting their focus on the present.
That only makes their spot here look worse. This team, which owns the third-worst defense in the league and has just six wins against .500-or-better opponents all year, really assessed itself and said, "yeah, we should definitely go for it."
Leeroy Jenkins probably thinks the Kings' overconfidence is concerning.
San Antonio Spurs
The Spurs traded (gasp!) for draft picks (double gasp!) at the deadline, going way off brand and telegraphing for the first time in decades that they intend to rebuild like a normal NBA team.
It was the right decision, and once Gregg Popovich's pursuit of the all-time coaching wins record is complete, it's possible San Antonio will even pepper in some healthy scratches for All-Star Dejounte Murray.
The Spurs should finish 11th in the West because Portland is done competing, and Sacramento just can't seem to get anything right. But barring a collapse by New Orleans or an injury to LeBron James, the play-in is a pipe dream.
Stats courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball Reference and Cleaning the Glass. Accurate through March 10. Salary info via Spotrac.
