Kentucky Derby 2021 Odds: Latest Betting Lines and Predictions

The 2020 Kentucky Derby was notable for a couple of reasons. For one, it didn't take place on the first Saturday in May. Because of the pandemic, it was pushed back to September. It was also notable because heavy favorite Tiz the Law didn't take home the win.

The Run for the Roses is back to where it belongs on the calendar in 2021 and will take place on Saturday. Essential Quality is the favorite, holding 3-1 odds at the time of publishing. However Essential Quality should face some stiff competition, with five horses at 10-1 odds or smaller.

While Medina Spirit is 15-1, it's worth noting that the colt is trained by Bob Baffert and slated to be ridden by jockey John Velazquez—the same duo that led Authentic to victory at Churchill Downs last year.

Another popular Baffert-trained horse, Concert Tour, won't run in the Kentucky Derby but could take part in the Preakness Stakes later in May.

Let's examine the latest odds for the 20 horses slated to run.

Kentucky Derby Odds

Essential Quality 3-1

Rock Your World 6-1

Known Agenda 8-1

Highly Motivated 10-1

Hot Rod Charlie 10-1

Medina Spirit 15-1

Midnight Bourbon 20-1

Mandaloun 20-1

Super Stock 20-1

Soup and Sandwich 30-1

O Besos 30-1

Like the King 40-1

Sainthood 40-1

King Fury 40-1

Bourbonic 40-1

Helium 40-1

Dynamic One 40-1

Hidden Stash 50-1

Keepmeinmind 50-1

Brooklyn Strong 50-1

Odds via Vegas Insider.

Predictions

1. Essential Quality

2. Rock Your World

3. Medina Spirit

4. Soup and Sandwich

5. Highly Motivated

Essential Quality is the favorite for a reason. The Brad H. Cox-trained colt is coming off wins in the 2021 Toyota Blue Grass Stakes, the 2021 Southwest Stakes and the 2020 TVG Breeders' Cup Juvenile.

However, the Blue Grass Stakes nearly ended in an upset win by Highly Motivated, who led early in the race. Trainer Chad Brown is hoping that his horse can do the chasing Saturday.

"I do think he's more effective with a target," Brown said, per Byron King of BloodHorse. "What I'm hoping for is more pace in the Derby, where he can be close but following somebody. I think if that happens, you're going to see this horse get the mile and a quarter without any problems."

One potential red flag for Highly Motivated, though, is the fact that he has only raced longer than a mile once—at the Blue Grass Stakes.

As noted, Medina Spirit has a proven team around him, which cannot be discounted. While the second-place finisher at the RUNHAPPY Santa Anita Derby may not pull out the win, he should be in the mix at the finish line.

Soup and Sandwich is a long shot but is riding momentum after finishing runner-up at March's Florida Derby.

While betting early on Essential Quality won't yield impressive returns, the horse may be an even bigger favorite by race day. The colt is undefeated in five career races and is expected to make it six of six Saturday.