Bills vs. Chiefs: Updated Odds, Predictions for AFC Championship Game 2021

The Kansas City Chiefs are the defending Super Bowl champions, while the Buffalo Bills have never won a Super Bowl. So the two teams taking part in Sunday's AFC Championship Game are much different in terms of recent postseason experience.

Last year, the Chiefs ended a 50-year championship drought when they won Super Bowl LIV. Now, they have an opportunity to become the first team to repeat as champions since the New England Patriots, who won back-to-back titles in the 2003 and 2004 seasons.

The Bills, who won a pair of AFL championships in the 1964 and 1965 seasons, haven't been able to win a title during the Super Bowl era, which began with the 1966 campaign. They made four straight Super Bowl appearances from the 1990-93 seasons, but they lost each time.

This season, Kansas City and Buffalo have been two of the top teams in the league, earning the Nos. 1 and 2 seeds in the AFC, respectively. It should be an exciting game when the two go head-to-head Sunday evening at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City.

Here's everything you need to know heading into Sunday's AFC Championship Game.

AFC Championship Game Information

Date: Sunday, Jan. 24

Start Time: 6:40 p.m. ET

TV: CBS

Latest Odds

Spread: Kansas City (-3)

Over/Under: 54 points

Moneyline: Kansas City -167 (bet $167 to win $100); Buffalo +145 (bet $100 to win $145)

Via DraftKings Sportsbook.

Matchup Breakdown, Prediction

Who will start at quarterback for the Chiefs on Sunday? The answer to that question could determine whether they'll be heading back to the Super Bowl for the second straight year or if their third consecutive appearance in the AFC Championship Game ends in defeat, just as it did two years ago.

Patrick Mahomes, who was the MVP of Super Bowl LIV, was injured during Kansas City's divisional-round victory over the Cleveland Browns last Sunday, and he's in the NFL's concussion protocol. However, things have sounded encouraging from Chiefs practice this week.

"Pat looked good out there,'' Kansas City head coach Andy Reid said Thursday, per ESPN's Adam Teicher. "He did a nice job when he was doing it. It looks like he's moving around well. He feels good. It's just important that we follow the protocol, and that's what we're doing.''

If Mahomes ends up not being able to play, 35-year-old backup Chad Henne will be under center for the Chiefs. And while he made some big plays late in last week's win, he'd be facing a greater challenge in having to go up against the Bills' defense for four full quarters.

But Mahomes took the majority of snaps during Thursday's practice, so he could be trending toward starting. If that's the case, Buffalo will be facing a tough task in going up against the No. 1 offense in the NFL.

Kansas City led the league with 415.8 total yards per game during the regular season. Mahomes has plenty of playmakers to get the ball to, including wide receiver Tyreek Hill and tight end Travis Kelce. And much like last year's playoffs, the Chiefs have shown no signs of slowing down when they're at full strength.

But the Bills have a strong offense themselves. They were tied for second in the NFL during the regular season with 396.4 total yards per game. Buffalo also has momentum, coming off two straight home wins to open the postseason (against the Indianapolis Colts and Baltimore Ravens) after having not won a playoff game since the 1995 season heading into this year's postseason.

There's the potential for a lot of offense from both sides in the conference championship game. And if Mahomes plays, it will be fun to watch as he and Bills quarterback Josh Allen go back and forth leading their respective units.

When these two teams met in Week 6 of the regular season, the Chiefs pulled out a 26-17 win in Buffalo. They had 466 total yards while possessing the ball for 37 minutes and 45 seconds in a strong offensive showing. Kansas City built a 13-point lead by early in the fourth quarter, then held on late for the victory.

Expect a similar outcome this time. The Bills should play a competitive game. However, Kansas City's experience playing at this point in the postseason will end up helping it in the closing minutes when it needs to find a way to hold on for the victory.

The Chiefs will pad their lead with a touchdown late in the fourth quarter, then they'll make a final defensive stand as the Bills, who will be looking to drive down the field and tie the game, will come up short in a valiant effort. And with that, Kansas City will secure its spot in Super Bowl LV.

Prediction: Chiefs 34, Bills 26

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