Charlie Riedel/Associated Press

NFL Playoff Scenarios 2021: Reviewing Post-Week 16 AFC, NFC Picture, Bracket

David KenyonDec 28, 2020

When the NFL playoffs begin, the AFC's road to Super Bowl LV will officially run through the reigning champions.

Thanks to a late game-winning drive to beat the Atlanta Falcons in Week 16, Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs locked up home-field advantage in the postseason.

In the NFC, meanwhile, the Green Bay Packers retained control of the cleanest path to the No. 1 seed. They walloped the Tennessee Titans and improved to 12-3, staying one game ahead of both the New Orleans Saints and Seattle Seahawks.

One game remains in Week 16—the New England Patriots host the Buffalo Bills on Monday night—but the looming playoff scenarios of Week 17 demand our attention right away.

AFC Playoff Picture, Scenarios

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Gene J. Puskar/Associated Press

1. Kansas City Chiefs (14-1; clinched AFC West)

2. Pittsburgh Steelers (12-3; clinched AFC North)

3. Buffalo Bills (11-3; clinched AFC East)

4. Tennessee Titans (10-5; AFC South leader)

5. Miami Dolphins (10-5)

6. Baltimore Ravens (10-5)

7. Cleveland Browns (10-5)

In the hunt: Indianapolis Colts (10-5)

AFC Scenarios

While the Chiefs have secured the No. 1 seed, the Steelers will be second or third. That outcome hinges on the Bills, who possess the head-to-head tiebreaker on Pittsburgh. If the Bills and Steelers end with an equal record, Buffalo will be No. 2.

The only way Buffalo isn't second or third is with two losses and Tennessee wins in Week 17.

Otherwise, the AFC South winner will be fourth. The Titans can clinch the division with a victory over the Houston Texans or if the Colts fall to the Jacksonville Jaguars. Indianapolis needs a win and Tennessee lose to claim the division.

The wild-card picture is a wonderful disaster, though.

Miami, Baltimore, Cleveland and Indianapolis (or Tennessee) all have a chance to secure a wild-card berth. While seeding scenarios are important, our focus is on clinching a playoff berth.

MIA: Win or loss by any of BAL, CLE, IND
BAL: Win or loss by either CLE or IND
CLE: Win or loss by IND
IND: Win and loss by any of TEN, MIA, CLE, IND
TEN: Win or IND loss or MIA loss

Miami (at Buffalo) and Cleveland (vs. Pittsburgh) have the toughest games, while the others are favorable. Tennessee heads to Houston, Baltimore travels to the Cincinnati Bengals and Indianapolis hosts the Jacksonville Jaguars.

NFC Playoff Picture, Scenarios

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Jeffrey Phelps/Associated Press

1. Green Bay Packers (12-3; clinched NFC North)

2. New Orleans Saints (11-4; clinched NFC South)

3. Seattle Seahawks (11-4; clinched NFC West)

4. Washington (6-9; NFC East leader)

5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-5; clinched playoff berth)

6. Los Angeles Rams (9-6)

7. Chicago Bears (8-7)

In the hunt: Arizona Cardinals (8-7), Dallas Cowboys (6-9), New York Giants (5-10)

NFC Scenarios

For the Packers, it's simple: Win. Do that—or Seattle loses—and they'll secure home-field advantage. But if the Bears stun Green Bay and the Seahawks and Saints win to leave the teams tied at 12-4, the Saints would secure the No. 1 seed because of a better conference record. If both the Packers and Saints lose, the Seahawks can swipe it.

No matter what, that trifecta will be 1-2-3 in some order followed by the NFC East winner.

Mercifully, the division will crown a champion in Week 17. Washington can clinch the East with a win over the Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday night. But if Washington falls, the winner of the Cowboys' afternoon clash with the Giants takes it.

Los Angeles, Chicago and Arizona are the remaining wild-card contenders, and the clinching scenarios are straightforward. Best of all, Los Angeles hosts Arizona.

LAR: Win or CHI loss
CHI: Win or ARI loss
ARI: Win and CHI loss

Considering Green Bay heads to Chicago, the Bears might need to become Rams fans next Sunday, too.