College Football Playoff 2020-21: Updated Odds, Predictions Against the Spread
The College Football Playoff selection committee's announcement of the four-team field for this season's CFP on Sunday provided no surprises. No. 1 Alabama will take on No. 4 Notre Dame in the Rose Bowl, while No. 2 Clemson and No. 3 Ohio State will go head-to-head in the Sugar Bowl.
The winners of those CFP semifinals (scheduled for New Year's Day) will then advance to the CFP National Championship Game, set to be held at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami on Jan. 11. And this isn't new territory for any of the four programs involved.
Alabama has been in six of the first seven playoffs, a format that began in the 2014 season. So has Clemson, and it's made it to the CFP six years in a row. Ohio State will be in the CFP for the fourth time (after the 2014, 2016 and 2019 seasons), while Notre Dame is making its second Playoff appearance (2018).
Here's a look at the current odds for the CFP semifinal matchups, followed by predictions for each game.
College Football Playoff Odds
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Rose Bowl: No. 1 Alabama (-19.5) vs. No. 4 Notre Dame
Sugar Bowl: No. 2 Clemson (-7.5) vs. No. 3 Ohio State
Odds obtained via DraftKings.
Alabama Will Overpower Notre Dame, Cover Spread
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Alabama hasn't been challenged much in 2020. A year after missing out on both the SEC championship game and College Football Playoff, the Crimson Tide came out strong this season and have kept rolling.
Before Saturday, Alabama had won each of its first 10 games by at least 17 points, a stretch that included impressive wins over Texas A&M and Georgia. Then, the Crimson Tide held off Florida for a 52-46 win in the SEC championship game. And although it was only a six-point win, Alabama never trailed.
Now, Alabama will take on Notre Dame in the Rose Bowl. The last time these schools met was in the BCS national championship game at the end of the 2012 season, which the Crimson Tide won 42-14. Before that, the teams hadn't played since 1987.
Although the Fighting Irish also opened this season with 10 straight wins, they weren't quite as dominant as the Tide while doing so. Then, they lost to Clemson 34-10 in the ACC championship game on Saturday. Despite that defeat, the CFP selection committee still decided that Notre Dame was the most deserving team to be the No. 4 seed.
However, Saturday's game could have been a sign of what's going to happen when Notre Dame takes on another top team in Alabama. The Fighting Irish had only 263 total yards against the Tigers, and that's not going to be enough for them to keep up with the Crimson Tide's high-powered offense.
Alabama has scored at least 38 points every game this season, and it's put up at least 52 in four of its past five contests. Notre Dame's defense (which allowed 541 total yards against Clemson) may have some trouble again in this CFP semifinal matchup.
The Crimson Tide are 19.5-point favorites, and while that's a large line, they are likely to cover it against the Fighting Irish. Alabama has a ton of momentum, while Notre Dame will need to try to bounce back from its first loss of the year, which won't be an easy task.
Both programs may be playoff teams this season, but there appears to be a sizable gap between the two. Expect the Crimson Tide to win by 20 or more and advance to the CFP National Championship for the fifth time in six seasons.
Prediction: Alabama 45, Notre Dame 21
Clemson Should Pull Away Late Against Ohio State
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Clemson and Ohio State have history in College Football Playoff semifinals. In fact, you may remember the last time they met quite well, considering it was just last season.
The Tigers beat the Buckeyes 29-23 in the 2019 Fiesta Bowl, advancing to the CFP National Championship (where it lost to LSU 42-25). Now, they'll be looking to win another semifinal this season, having done so in four of the past five years.
Clemson suffered a rare regular-season loss on Nov. 7 against Notre Dame in double overtime. However, the Tigers were missing several key players, including star quarterback Trevor Lawrence, who had tested positive for COVID-19. And that ended up being their only loss after getting revenge against the Fighting Irish in the ACC Championship Game to improve to 10-1.
That made it clear that Clemson was again deserving of reaching the CFP. But there's been some skepticism regarding the selection committee's decision to include Ohio State.
Although the Buckeyes are undefeated and have looked impressive when they've been in action, they just haven't been on the field as much as the other top teams. Ohio State is 6-0 after it beat Northwestern in the Big Ten Championship Game, which was enough for it to end up in the No. 3 spot in the CFP rankings.
Even though the Buckeyes didn't face as many opponents as the Tigers, the two teams played a close game last season, and it wouldn't be surprising if that happened again. Especially considering both teams still have the same starting quarterbacks (Ohio State's Justin Fields and Clemson's Lawrence).
But the Tigers already own a win over a playoff team after beating Notre Dame, and they're always dangerous this time of year. It's an experienced group that has had plenty of past success, and they know what it takes to beat the Buckeyes.
That's why although the game should be close early, Clemson, which is a 7.5-point favorite, has a good chance to cover the spread and win by two scores. Lawrence should help the Tigers put things away late and lead them to another impressive victory.
Prediction: Clemson 38, Ohio State 24
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