Sugar Bowl 2020: Updated Odds and Preview for Clemson vs. Ohio State
For the third time in the College Football Playoff era, the Clemson Tigers and Ohio State Buckeyes will meet in a semifinal game. This time, the two college football powers will meet in New Orleans at the Sugar Bowl.
Clemson has the 2-0 advantage in those two games. The Tigers blanked Ohio State 31-0 in the 2017 Fiesta Bowl en route to a win over Alabama in the national championship game. Last year, we saw the rematch, with the Tigers taking the contest 29-23 in a much more competitive game.
Now, Ohio State seeks revenge coming off an undefeated season in which the Buckeyes played six games due to various cancelations related to COVID-19. Ryan Day's team officially punched their ticket into the field with a 22-10 win over Northwestern to claim the Big Ten Championship.
Clemson's status as a playoff team was confirmed after avenging their only loss of the season. After losing 47-40 in overtime against Notre Dame without quarterback Trevor Lawrence, they beat the Irish 34-10 with their star quarterback in the lineup.
Here's a look at the latest odds and a preview of what to expect when these two programs hit the field on New Year's Day.
2020 Sugar Bowl Info
Date: Friday, January 1, 2021
Start Time: 8:45 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN
Location: Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans, Louisiana
Odds: Clemson -7.5
Over/Under: 65.5
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Preview
The fact that Clemson comes into the game as more than a touchdown favorite is a bit of a surprise. Nearly any advanced metrics that seek to quantify their play throughout the season have the two teams as virtually identical.
In fact, Ohio State (2) edges out Clemson (3) in Football Outsiders' F/+ rankings, which combine multiple metrics and take into consideration opponents and drive data.
However, the Buckeyes are a bit more of a mystery than Clemson at this point. They only played six games this season. Four of those came against teams with a combined record of 11-21. The two teams they played who are ranked in the final College Football Playoff rankings were No. 11 Indiana and No. 14 Northwestern.
In those games, Justin Fields was uncharacteristically turnover-prone. He threw for two touchdowns and five interceptions while going 30-of-57. Fortunately for Ohio State, running back Trey Sermon and the running game were more than ready to step up.
Sermon gashed the Northwestern defense for 331 yards on two touchdowns in his biggest game since transferring from Oklahoma.
Ultimately, the offense as a whole was able to overcome less-than-stellar games from Fields to post 42 points against Indiana and a 12-point win over the Wildcats. The question becomes what version of Fields we will see in a showdown with Trevor Lawrence on the other side.
The Buckeyes should be getting some help in the form of a new rule change from the Big Ten. While the conference had previously forced athletes who tested positive for COVID-19 to sit out 21 days, the conference will now allow players to come back after 17, ESPN's Adam Rittenberg.
The shift in policy is expected to allow wide receiver Chris Olave, who did not play in the Big Ten title game, to come back in time for the semifinal game.
"That's the problem we've had. Guys have been kind of in and out, but they just keep finding a way to win," head coach Ryan Day told ESPN of the multiple changes in the lineup they've had because of coronavirus protocols (h/t Kevin Harrish of Eleven Warriors). "But I think—we get Chris (Olave) back, now the offensive linemen, three of those guys this is their second game in a month—so that's been the challenge. But I think us all practicing together, practicing at a high level, understanding that we're going to go good on good the best we can to get the best look we possibly can to keep the timing up, I think this is our best chance."
Lawrence is once again leading one of the nation's top offenses. The Tigers are fourth in the nation in scoring while 14th in the country in yards per play. However, they have also put up some questionable performances throughout the course of the season.
The defense was suspect in giving up 40 points to Notre Dame, but the team also struggled to stop Boston College in another game Lawrence missed. They allowed 28 points in the first half to the Eagles before coming back to win 34-28.
A matchup to watch is going to be the Ohio State offensive line against the Clemson defensive front.
The Buckeyes offensive line is 104th in the nation in sacks allowed. They've given up three per game and five sacks in the Indiana game alone. Clemson's defensive line is once again stacked with talent and the Tigers are second in the nation in sacks.
Again, that could change as the Buckeyes have two weeks to prepare for their rematch with Clemson. That should give the unit enough time to jell and figure out their communication for blitz pickups.
The spread may be more than a touchdown but it's hard to imagine the gulf between the two will be that wide. These are two of the most talented teams in the country, and as long as Fields is in top form, it will be close.
Prediction: Clemson 34, Ohio State 31
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