NFL's Worst Teams Avoid 2021 Lawrence, Fields Draft Scare After Wild Week 13
Every season at about this time, we talk about how the NFL draft order is "taking shape." At this point this year, that shape still resembles an inkblot from a Rorschach test.
Yeah, the winless New York Jets lead the pack, but feisty New York still holds a mere one-game edge on the equally feisty, one-win Jacksonville Jaguars. Nobody else is within reasonable reaching distance of the top pick right now, but the two-win Cincinnati Bengals can't be counted out, and eight other teams have four or fewer victories in 2020.
With the 13th Sunday of the 2020 NFL regular season now complete, let's try to interpret this particularly ambiguous inkblot with a look at every team that is at least three games under .500.
1. New York Jets (0-12)
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Years from now, I won't be surprised if it's revealed in somebody's tell-all book that the Jets deliberately dialed up a zero blitz against what was essentially a Hail Mary situation with a 28-24 lead over the Las Vegas Raiders and five seconds remaining in Sunday's game. This tank job has become glorious as Gang Green has fallen to 0-12.
What lies ahead
Just one more home game, which comes against the streaking 9-3 Cleveland Browns. They have to travel to play the Seattle Seahawks, Los Angeles Rams and New England Patriots. That Las Vegas game might have been their last good chance at a win.
Potential draft targets: Clemson QB Trevor Lawrence, Ohio State QB Justin Fields, Miami edge Gregory Rousseau, Penn State LB Micah Parsons
They used a No. 3 overall pick on Sam Darnold in 2018, but he's the league's lowest-rated passer in his third season. It's hard to imagine the Jets passing on Lawrence if he enters the NFL. Regardless, they're likely to target a new quarterback here. If that falls through, they'd probably aim for a defensive difference-maker.
Other business to address
Adam Gase has failed miserably in two seasons there and should be replaced as head coach immediately. Kansas City Chiefs offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy will lead most lists, but you can imagine they'd love to steal Josh McDaniels from the New England Patriots. The key, though, is to fire Gase.
2. Jacksonville Jaguars (1-11)
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The Jaguars dodged a bullet with an overtime loss to the Minnesota Vikings, marking their fourth defeat by fewer than five points in the last month. Considering the state of their gutted roster, they might lead the NFL in moral victories.
What lies ahead
Three of their final four games come against contenders, but it wouldn't be shocking if they were favored to beat the slumping Chicago Bears at home in Week 16. You also never know what might happen in divisional games against the Tennessee Titans and Indianapolis Colts. The Jags beat the Colts in Week 1.
Potential draft targets: Clemson QB Trevor Lawrence, Ohio State QB Justin Fields, Penn State LB Micah Parsons, Alabama CB Patrick Surtain II
You can't pass on Lawrence in favor of Gardner Minshew II, Jake Luton or Mike Glennon, and Fields has superstar potential as well. Another strategy would be to continue rebuilding the defense with a standout who could complement K'Lavon Chaisson and Josh Allen.
Other business to address
They'll need to fill their now-vacant general manager role, and the right approach is to let whoever they hire decide whether to keep head coach Doug Marrone around for the next step in the rebuild. Marrone didn't get enough out of the team even when it was talented, so starting from scratch would be the best route.
3. Cincinnati Bengals (2-9-1)
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Even without rookie No. 1 overall pick Joe Burrow, they aren't getting blown out. However, the key is they keep losing. They led in the second half, but Sunday's 19-7 defeat at the hands of the Miami Dolphins leaves Cincinnati 1.5 games ahead of the Jags.
What lies ahead
They have three more home games, but two are against the Pittsburgh Steelers and Baltimore Ravens, and they'll likely have trouble in a road matchup with the Houston Texans. Still, even if they lose to the Dallas Cowboys at home next week (no guarantee), they're unlikely to move above the No. 3 spot. A win could drop them out of the top five.
Potential draft targets: Oregon OL Penei Sewell, Miami edge Gregory Rousseau, Penn State LB Micah Parsons, Alabama CB Patrick Surtain II
Poor pass protection hindered Burrow and Co. significantly this season, so it would be awesome to pair Sewell with 2019 first-round offensive tackle Jonah Williams. Otherwise, the focus will likely shift to the best available defender. Cincinnati's defense entered Week 13 ranked 29 in DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) at Football Outsiders.
Other business to address
They'll have to confirm that they want to give young head coach Zac Taylor one more season after two awful seasons. It's not as though Taylor has had much to work with, so he ought to get another shot. They also can't let top cornerback William Jackson III get away as a free agent, but he'll be expensive and this team doesn't like spending money. To free up cash, moving on from veteran defensive lineman Geno Atkins is an option.
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4. Los Angeles Chargers (3-9)
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The Los Angeles Chargers' 45-0 loss to the New England Patriots was the most lopsided shutout loss in the NFL since 2014, and it might have been a death knell for head coach Anthony Lynn.
What lies ahead
Surely more fun examples of a team doing everything in its power to lose in creative and unique fashion. Nobody loses as well as the Chargers, who have just two wins in 11 mostly promising Justin Herbert starts and are unlikely to get many more. They'll be underdogs in Las Vegas and Kansas City, and they might split their remaining two home games against the Atlanta Falcons and Denver Broncos.
Potential draft targets: Miami edge Gregory Rousseau, Oregon OT Penei Sewell, Penn State LB Micah Parsons
Rousseau would be a logical replacement for aging impending free-agent edge defender Melvin Ingram opposite Joey Bosa. Sewell could team up with Bryan Bulaga as a near-immediate upgrade over Sam Tevi in support of Herbert. Beyond that, it would likely be the best non-quarterback available.
Other business to address
That's gotta be it for Lynn, who might be the worst game manager in the NFL. His clock botchery is a big reason the Chargers continually underperform relative to their talent. Eric Bieniemy, Arthur Smith, Byron Leftwich, Joe Brady and Jim Harbaugh would be intriguing candidates for a team developing a promising young quarterback.
5. Dallas Cowboys (3-8)
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They were embarrassed on their home field by the Washington Football Team on Thanksgiving and have not yet had an opportunity to be embarrassed in Week 13.
What lies ahead
They're large underdogs in Baltimore on Tuesday night. Beyond that, though, are several winnable games against the Bengals, San Francisco 49ers, Philadelphia Eagles and New York Giants. It would be surprising if they didn't win another game or two, which means a top-five selection might not be in the cards.
Potential draft targets: Miami edge Gregory Rousseau, Alabama CB Patrick Surtain II, Michigan edge Kwity Paye, Ohio State QB Justin Fields
With the offensive line likely to get healthier in the offseason, Dallas should simply target the best defensive player available. I tossed Fields in there just in case he drops into their laps and they decide to move on from quarterback Dak Prescott, which is entirely possible.
Other business to address
Could head coach Mike McCarthy be one-and-done? Not likely considering the number of injuries with which he had to contend in 2020. You never know with Jerry Jones, but he did exhibit tremendous patience with former head coach Jason Garrett. Instead, all eyes will probably be on Prescott's future following an injury-derailed season under the franchise tag. The Cowboys might save a few bucks just because of that unfortunate reality for Prescott.
6. Philadelphia Eagles (3-8-1)
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The free-falling Eagles lost their fourth consecutive game Sunday against the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field, but this one was particularly special/painful because $32-million-per-year quarterback Carson Wentz was finally (mercifully?) benched in favor of second-round rookie Jalen Hurts. The Eagles haven't scored more than 17 points in a game since Nov. 1.
What lies ahead
Not only do they draw the streaking New Orleans Saints in Week 14, but that might be with Drew Brees back from injury for New Orleans. They also have to play the Arizona Cardinals in Glendale. Their final two games against Dallas and Washington are winnable, but the former is on the road, and Washington has played relatively well of late, so there's a good chance they'll be underdogs for both. They could seriously finish 3-12-1, which might give them a shot at the third or fourth selection. Of course, they could also easily end up winning the horrific NFC East.
Potential draft targets: Miami edge Gregory Rousseau, Penn State LB Micah Parsons, Alabama CB Patrick Surtain II, Virginia Tech CB Caleb Farley, Michigan edge Kwity Paye
The offensive line is a mess right now, but they expect to have Andre Dillard, Lane Johnson and Brandon Brooks back, so Penei Sewell would be a strange choice in the top 10. Wentz is too pricy to get in on a quarterback, and they spent their 2020 first-rounder on a pass-catcher. That likely means they'd go defense, and there's really no area there in which they can't use fresh talent.
Other business to address
If they continue to plummet from a cliff, do they consider a coaching change? That still seems far-fetched considering the injuries this season as well as the points Doug Pederson scored in 2017, but he's the supposed quarterback guru and Wentz's decline is absurd. Could they aim for a new quarterback expert like Jim Harbaugh, Arthur Smith, Byron Leftwich, Joe Brady or Brian Daboll? I think Pederson and Wentz deserve one more season to get this back together, and the team can't afford to move on from Wentz anyway.
7. Carolina Panthers (4-8)
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The Carolina Panthers almost accidentally beat the Vikings on the road ahead of their Week 13 bye. Sometimes they forget this is a rebuilding season and moral losses are better than wins.
What lies ahead
They might make that same mistake and wind up with a full-blown W when they host the tired Broncos on two weeks' rest in Week 14. After that, though, there's a good chance they lose out against the Packers, WFT and Saints.
Potential draft targets: Penn State LB Micah Parsons, Florida TE Kyle Pitts, Alabama CB Patrick Surtain II, Virginia Tech CB Caleb Farley
Parsons could be such a sweet addition just over a year after Luke Kuechly's retirement. Quarterback Teddy Bridgewater could really use a go-to tight end in the passing game like Pitts. And a bad pass defense could use a lockdown corner to support the retooled defensive front.
Other business to address
They'll have to make a decision on aging, injured defensive lineman Kawann Short, who is due $20.8 million in a walk year. Right tackle Taylor Moton is also slated to hit the open market, but aside from that, it isn't likely to be an overly eventful offseason for Matt Rhule's team.
8. Atlanta Falcons (4-8)
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Following four victories in a six-game span, the Falcons smartened up and laid an egg against New Orleans. And thank goodness for the Saints, who have now handed Atlanta two crucial losses in a three-week span.
What lies ahead
Somebody likely will have to win when the Chargers host the Falcons in Week 14, but there's a good chance Atlanta does the opposite of run the table the rest of the way against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (twice) and the Chiefs on the road.
Potential draft targets: Ohio State QB Justin Fields, BYU QB Zach Wilson, Penn State LB Micah Parsons, Alabama CB Patrick Surtain II, Virginia Tech CB Caleb Farley, Michigan edge Kwity Paye
If Fields slips or Wilson's stock rises enough, the Falcons oughta consider targeting 35-year-old Matt Ryan's potential successor. Ryan just hasn't been himself the last couple of seasons, and his supporting cast is aging. The Falcons aren't competitive now, and if that remains the case in 2021, they could decide to move on. It would be great to have Fields, Wilson or even North Dakota State's Trey Lance waiting in the wings. Beyond that, a team that is riddled with holes and should be rebuilding has to focus on BPA.
Other business to address
They'll have to either find a new head coach or formally promote interim leader Raheem Morris, who has drawn strong reviews since relieving Dan Quinn. Another defensive name that you'll likely hear is Robert Saleh's, while Eric Bieniemy and NFC South assistants Byron Leftwich and Joe Brady would likely get looks if they want to fix Ryan or focus on a new quarterback.
9. Miami Dolphins (via Houston Texans, 4-8)
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The Texans recovered from a terrible start and hurt the Dolphins' inherited draft stock in November but came through with a clutch loss to the Colts in Week 13. Miami is surely focused on the playoff race, but deep down, general manager Chris Grier and head coach Brian Flores are cheering against Houston every week.
What lies ahead
The Texans will have a shot at more W's when they face a Bears team that has lost six in a row in Week 14 (albeit on the road) and when they host the Bengals in Week 16. They also meet the Colts and Titans, and we all know that anything can happen in an AFC South battle.
Potential draft targets: LSU WR Ja'Marr Chase, Alabama WR Jaylen Waddle, Alabama WR Devonta Smith, Penn State LB Micah Parsons, Michigan edge Kwity Paye
This would seem like a good spot to get quarterback Tua Tagovailoa another weapon. Otherwise, it's likely the best available front-seven defender for a team that has already spent a ton of money on the secondary and a ton of draft capital on the offensive line.
Other business to address
Nada. The Dolphins have everything in place. Now they just have to keep building and execute.
10. Denver Broncos (4-8)
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Denver at least temporarily moved into the top 10 with a valiant Sunday Night Football loss to the Chiefs, although that could change when Washington plays the Steelers on Monday night. Still, the Broncos have done their part with four losses in their last five games.
What lies ahead
They're likely to be underdogs (although not massive ones) in each of their last four games against the Panthers, Bills, Chargers and Raiders. They're on the road for the two easier games against Carolina and L.A.
Potential draft targets: Ohio State QB Justin Fields, BYU QB Zach Wilson, North Dakota State QB Trey Lance, Miami edge Gregory Rousseau, Michigan edge Kwity Paye, Alabama CB Patrick Surtain II, Virginia Tech CB Caleb Farley
It's possible sophomore quarterback Drew Lock will finish strong for the second year in a row and cause general manager John Elway to give the second-round Missouri product one more season. But Elway appears to be running out of both rope and patience, and all three of those quarterbacks would have higher ceilings than Lock. Beyond that, they should look to replace the aging Von Miller on the edge and seek an upgrade at corner.
Other business to address
Miller will be coming off an injury-derailed season at age 31 and he's declining anyway. There's no way they should pay him a $22.2 million club option. They should, however, do whatever they can to keep safety Justin Simmons around after the safety excelled under the franchise tag in 2020.
11. Washington Football Team (4-7)
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Washington cruised by the Cowboys on Thanksgiving and will realistically fall out of the running for a prime pick if it upsets the Steelers on Monday evening.
What lies ahead
Beyond the Pittsburgh game, they travel to San Francisco and Philly and host the Seahawks and Panthers. They might lose three of those, but probably not all four. And as with the Cowboys and Eagles, a potential tank is obscured by the fact that they can still win the NFC East and host a damn playoff game.
Potential draft targets: Ohio State QB Justin Fields, BYU QB Zach Wilson, North Dakota State QB Trey Lance, Alabama OT Alex Leatherwood, Texas OT Samuel Cosmi, LSU WR Ja'Marr Chase, Alabama WR Jaylen Waddle, Alabama WR Devonta Smith
You have to consider all three of the potential first-round quarterbacks not named Trevor for a team that appears to have given up on second-year first-rounder Dwayne Haskins Jr. If that doesn't transpire, a potential pillar offensive tackle or another offensive weapon should top the list for Ron Rivera and Co.
Other business to address
They'll have to decide whether to give Haskins another shot because they foolishly haven't done so after pulling the plug early this season. Veterans Brandon Scherff and Ryan Kerrigan are also slated to hit free agency, and they at least have to move on from a contract that would pay Alex Smith $24.4 million in 2021.
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