Week 12 College Football Power Rankings

WhatIfSports.com utilizes its college football simulation technology to present the most comprehensive, deterministic, and unbiased ranking of all teams.

We simulated every possible DI FBS match-up one hundred times, and used the winning percentages from 700,000+ games to evaluate every team. All 120 teams are ranked below with their average points for and against from the simulated games.

Simulations are based on updated, strength-of-schedule-adjusted stats, so significant week-to-week changes could occur.

Most Notable Storyline

With back-to-back victories over Oregon and USC, Stanford has exploded onto the national scene. After dominating USC, the Cardinal continued blasting its way up the rankings, leaping into the top 10 for the first time this season.

Nearly a month ago, heading into Week Eight of the college football season, Stanford simply helped fill in the middle of the pack, winning 65.1 percent of their 100 games against all other FBS opponents.

Two weeks later, as the Cardinal prepared for their big game with Oregon, they moved up 14 spots and were winning 71.2 percent of those games.

Two monumental games later and Toby Gerhart and Stanford are all the way up to eighth in the latest rankings. The Cardinal jumped 14 spots after beating the Ducks, and five more this week after whaling on the Trojans. Now eighth in the country, they beat FBS teams nearly 89 percent of the time.

Stanford is averaging 53 points per game over its last two outings. It piled up 469 total yards against USC, including 325 on the ground. The Cardinal racked up more than 500 yards against the Ducks, including 254 on the ground.

The offensive onslaught helped Stanford propel up the rankings and it now ranks sixth in scoring against FBS teams, outscoring opponents 46-17.

Biggest Gains

Just because the Big East race will be settled at the top by Cincinnati and Pittsburgh doesn't mean Rutgers is about to roll over from here on out.

The Scarlet Knights won their third game in a row last week, crushing South Florida 31-0. The shutout moves Rutgers up 17 spots in this week's rankings to 17th, as they now beat nearly 80 percent of all other FBS teams.

Florida Atlantic officially enjoys the biggest leap. The Owls avoided a three-game losing streak by beating Arkansas State and moving up 19 places this week to No. 80.

In other notable jumps, Wisconsin not only put Michigan's bowl hopes at risk, the Badgers moved up 10 more spots. And while going unnoticed around the country, the Badgers are now up to 14th in the latest rankings, ahead of Penn State and Iowa.

Ole Miss moves up 14 spots after stomping Tennessee, Oregon State leaps 13 spots back into the top 25, and Hawaii gains 15 spots to move back into the upper half of the FBS at No. 58.

Biggest Losses

South Florida's freefall continues. The Bulls were ranked as high as 11th earlier this season, but after an undefeated run to start the year, plummeted 36 spots in the last month.

Their latest loss, a shutout by Rutgers, drops them 22 spots, more than any other team this week. South Florida, now 47th in the country, beats FBC opponents just 58.9 percent of the time.

Winning doesn't always mean improvement in these rankings. Just ask BYU . The Cougars won their second straight game since losing to TCU at home, but drop 13 spots in the rankings this week after topping win-less New Mexico by less than a touchdown.

In other notable losses, 19 seems to be the magic number as Kansas State , Wake Forest, and Colorado all fall 19 spots. And Arizona and USC , each losers in Pac-10 play, each drop 12 spots to 21st and 22nd, respectively.

Teams Ranked by Winning Percentage (everyone plays everyone 100 times)

	Team	Change	Win Pct	PS/G	PA/G
1.	Florida Gators	-	98.7	50.7	7.8
2.	TCU Horned Frogs	-	97.2	51.5	9.2
3.	Texas Longhorns	-	96.5	43.9	7.0
4.	Alabama Crimson Tide	+1	95.4	44.2	8.2
5.	Cincinnati Bearcats	-1	94.2	49.0	14.3
6.	Boise State Broncos	-	93.0	45.9	13.2
7.	Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets	-	92.4	51.5	19.2
8.	Stanford Cardinal	+5	88.7	45.7	17.4
9.	Pittsburgh Panthers	-1	88.0	41.7	15.3
10.	Ohio State Buckeyes	+1	87.5	34.7	12.3
11.	Oregon Ducks	+4	85.2	36.6	14.5
12.	Virginia Tech Hokies	+11	82.5	34.8	16.0
13.	Oregon State Beavers	+13	82.1	34.9	16.0
14.	Wisconsin Badgers	+10	81.5	36.5	16.0
15.	Oklahoma State Cowboys	+1	81.2	35.8	16.0
16.	Utah Utes	-4	79.7	35.1	16.7
17.	Rutgers Scarlet Knights	+17	79.6	32.4	15.3
18.	LSU Tigers	-1	77.8	28.0	13.7
19.	Clemson Tigers	-	77.4	31.2	14.4
20.	Iowa Hawkeyes	-	77.2	28.0	13.6
	Team	Change	Win Pct	PS/G	PA/G
21.	Arizona Wildcats	-12	76.7	33.3	17.1
22.	USC Trojans	-12	76.7	34.2	19.0
23.	Penn State Nittany Lions	-2	76.2	30.8	16.1
24.	Mississippi Rebels	+14	75.7	33.4	18.1
25.	West Virginia Mountaineers	+5	75.2	33.7	18.1
26.	Nebraska Cornhuskers	+3	74.9	27.7	14.5
27.	Brigham Young Cougars	-13	74.6	33.9	19.7
28.	Houston Cougars	-10	74.2	36.9	23.6
29.	Texas Tech Red Raiders	-2	72.5	28.5	17.4
30.	Air Force Falcons	+10	72.4	29.7	16.3
31.	California Golden Bears	+10	72.1	31.0	19.0
32.	Georgia Bulldogs	+10	70.0	29.8	19.9
33.	Nevada Wolf Pack	+6	69.6	34.5	22.4
34.	Oklahoma Sooners	+1	69.4	26.7	16.0
35.	Arkansas Razorbacks	-3	68.9	35.6	24.4
36.	Auburn Tigers	-3	66.8	31.1	21.5
37.	Miami (FL) Hurricanes	-15	66.0	28.6	19.2
38.	Missouri Tigers	+9	65.8	26.5	18.8
39.	Connecticut Huskies	+5	63.8	28.0	20.5
40.	South Carolina Gamecocks	+13	63.0	24.7	17.9
	Team	Change	Win Pct	PS/G	PA/G
41.	Michigan State Spartans	+4	63.0	27.5	20.6
42.	Temple Owls	+12	62.9	25.9	17.8
43.	Notre Dame Fighting Irish	-7	62.8	31.1	23.7
44.	Southern Miss Golden Eagles	+4	61.9	27.3	21.4
45.	Fresno State Bulldogs	-17	60.9	35.4	28.2
46.	Tennessee Volunteers	-15	59.9	24.7	19.2
47.	South Florida Bulls	-22	58.9	26.9	22.8
48.	North Carolina Tar Heels	+12	58.2	18.9	15.6
49.	Northern Illinois Huskies	+7	58.2	26.1	21.6
50.	Florida State Seminoles	+2	57.9	32.3	28.0
51.	Boston College Eagles	-1	56.5	21.6	18.5
52.	Idaho Vandals	-3	55.7	30.2	27.1
53.	Troy Trojans	-7	54.8	27.5	25.1
54.	Utah State Aggies	+13	54.7	27.2	25.0
55.	Central Michigan Chippewas	-	53.7	24.8	22.5
56.	Kansas State Wildcats	-19	53.1	23.7	22.0
57.	Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks	+4	51.9	23.0	22.7
58.	Hawaii Warriors	+15	51.3	27.4	27.0
59.	Purdue Boilermakers	-	51.1	22.6	22.1
60.	UAB Blazers	+9	51.1	28.1	26.6
	Team	Change	Win Pct	PS/G	PA/G
61.	Navy Midshipmen	-3	50.6	23.4	23.1
62.	Wake Forest Demon Deacons	-19	49.3	23.0	23.8
63.	North Carolina State Wolfpack	-1	47.8	21.8	23.8
64.	Texas A&M Aggies	-13	45.6	23.1	25.0
65.	Southern Methodist Mustangs	+11	44.5	20.7	24.9
66.	Illinois Fighting Illini	+2	43.9	22.3	26.1
67.	Baylor Bears	-3	43.1	18.8	23.9
68.	Northwestern Wildcats	+4	42.9	18.6	23.1
69.	Michigan Wolverines	+2	42.9	21.8	26.2
70.	East Carolina Pirates	-	42.8	18.8	22.6
71.	Tulsa Golden Hurricane	-8	42.5	24.2	28.9
72.	Kentucky Wildcats	+5	42.2	19.4	24.1
73.	Arizona State Sun Devils	-16	41.8	16.8	20.7
74.	Mississippi State Bulldogs	-9	41.2	20.1	25.2
75.	Indiana Hoosiers	-	40.6	18.4	24.8
76.	Ohio Bobcats	+2	40.5	16.4	23.1
77.	Buffalo Bulls	+9	39.9	19.9	26.4
78.	Kansas Jayhawks	-12	39.4	19.4	26.2
79.	UCF Knights	+8	39.4	16.1	21.8
80.	Florida Atlantic Owls	+19	35.1	21.5	30.9
	Team	Change	Win Pct	PS/G	PA/G
81.	Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders	-1	35.0	17.0	26.2
82.	UCLA Bruins	-	34.4	15.6	25.8
83.	Minnesota Golden Gophers	-9	34.3	16.0	24.9
84.	Syracuse Orange	+11	34.1	14.8	24.5
85.	Toledo Rockets	-6	32.8	19.3	28.8
86.	Kent State Golden Flashes	+2	32.3	13.8	23.4
87.	Wyoming Cowboys	+11	32.2	14.4	24.5
88.	Washington Huskies	-5	31.8	18.0	28.5
89.	UTEP Miners	+2	31.0	20.0	32.3
90.	Louisiana Tech Bulldogs	+3	30.2	16.5	27.3
91.	Iowa State Cyclones	-6	29.7	17.4	29.2
92.	Arkansas State Red Wolves	-11	29.2	15.5	27.4
93.	Louisville Cardinals	-3	28.8	14.9	27.3
94.	Marshall Thundering Herd	-2	28.6	14.9	27.1
95.	Duke Blue Devils	-6	25.5	13.5	27.3
96.	Western Michigan Broncos	+1	24.7	14.3	30.4
97.	Vanderbilt Commodores	+7	23.2	11.9	29.9
98.	Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns	-4	22.6	12.9	29.8
99.	Army Black Knights	+4	22.0	11.9	29.2
100.	Colorado State Rams	+5	22.0	11.3	27.7
	Team	Change	Win Pct	PS/G	PA/G
101.	North Texas Mean Green	+6	21.3	15.5	33.0
102.	Ball State Cardinals	-2	20.7	13.0	31.1
103.	Colorado Buffaloes	-19	19.0	9.2	27.2
104.	UNLV Rebels	-3	18.9	15.2	35.5
105.	Memphis Tigers	+1	18.5	12.9	31.9
106.	Bowling Green Falcons	+3	18.3	10.9	31.3
107.	San Diego State Aztecs	+1	17.4	10.4	30.1
108.	Virginia Cavaliers	-12	17.1	7.5	25.7
109.	Maryland Terrapins	-7	16.7	10.0	29.5
110.	Tulane Green Wave	+1	15.5	12.3	33.3
111.	Miami (OH) RedHawks	+1	11.5	8.0	34.1
112.	Western Kentucky Hilltoppers	+1	10.8	10.6	40.4
113.	Akron Zips	-3	9.3	8.2	36.2
114.	Florida International Golden Panthers	+5	7.8	7.4	37.5
115.	Rice Owls	+3	7.5	8.1	36.8
116.	New Mexico Lobos	-2	7.3	6.1	34.8
117.	New Mexico State Aggies	-1	6.3	6.8	38.3
118.	San Jose State Spartans	-1	5.9	8.3	40.1
119.	Washington State Cougars	-4	4.9	7.3	39.5
120.	Eastern Michigan Eagles	-	4.9	6.6	41.4

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Eric Schmoldt is a writer and Paul Bessire is the Product Manager of Content and Quantitative Analysis for WhatIfSports.com, a division of FOX Sports Interactive specializing in NCAA Matchup analysis and college football sim games . With any comments, questions or topic suggestions, Paul and Eric can be reached at [e-mail] . Thanks!