NFL Power Rating Picks: Week 10

It's time and here are NFL Power Rating Picks—Week 10 , each week when the engine that cranks the power rating machine turns out a play, the point-spread and home field advantage have both been accounted for.

For a play to qualify it needs to have a certain number attached to it but with power ratings, systems and trends there will often be a temptation among bettors to bend the numbers just enough to make a NFL game fit.

You look down the team’s schedule and see that everything fits except for one small detail; perhaps they only allowed 20 points in one of the four games.

While bending the parameters may justify a bet that you are probably going to make anyway, it’s best to use strict judgment with systems, power ratings, etc, and know that the numbers are factual, rather than fictional. It can only lead to a better bottom line when the dust settles on Sunday night.

Following are NFL Power Rating Picks for Week 10:

Side plays were a bust last week but our play on the Monday Night Football game to stay "Under" was a winner and the overall record for the season, including early week and late-plays moved to 24-19 (56 percent). This week we have six plays to consider, including four bets on the Over/Under.

1. Buffalo at Tennessee "Over" 41 : Titans started this season 0-6 SU, took a bye and then came back with a dominant home effort versus Jacksonville. A win at San Francisco has provided some momentum but with a defense ranked last in points allowed, expect both teams to put up some numbers before this game is final.

2. Philadelphia at San Diego "Over" 47 : Philly is 5-0 O/U as an underdog of plus two points or less since October 2003 and four of those overs were in road games. The two most-recent road games were both non-Conference (BAL, KC). RB Westbrook is expected to start. These teams fit into the same power rating profile as the Bills and Titans.

3. Dallas at Green Bay "Under" 48 : The Packers proved unpredictable when they fell to the Buccaneers in Week Nine, but this week, back at home, should get a better effort from the defense. The Cowboys have won three-straight ATS and with a divisional game on-deck (WSH), play-calling should be conservative—a la Wade Phillips.

4. New England, plus three : It’s not surprising that the ratings pointed towards a play on the Patriots considering how high they score on power ranking boards across the nation.Tom Brady getting points is never a bad option.

5. New England at Indianapolis "Over" 48 : Indy’s defense has allowed just one team to score more than 17 points this season (MIA, Wk Two). If there were ever a time for a second, it’s now.

This is the Colts’ third SNF game of the season and fourth prime-time game. Indianapolis is 3-0 SU/ATS through the first three night games and 1-2 O/U but the Colts offense has averaged just a hair less than 30 ppg. It’s the first of the four marquee game Indy gets to play at home.

6. Baltimore -10.5 : The Browns have ratcheted themselves down considerably this year and part of that lies in the hands of management. The rest is on the field and against a Ravens team under the gun to produce wins. It’s hard to see Cleveland keeping pace—no matter who starts at QB.