NFL PREVIEW: GREEN BAY PACKERS VS. DALLAS COWBOYS

One of the first rules of sports handicapping is that the public tends to myopically overreact to single games on a week-to-week basis. Such will be the case this weekend as the public will be down on Green Bay after their atrocious loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and high on Dallas after their big win over the Philadelphia Eagles.

Of course, before last week’s game nobody was giving the Cowboys much of a chance against Philly. Now everyone’s talking about them as a Super bowl contender. All based on one game.

Precisely the reverse true of Green Bay. In the eyes of the public they have gone from playoff contender to something you might wipe off your shoe in the span of a week. Once again, all based on one game.

Indeed, based on last week’s performances one’s first impression would be that the Cowboys should stomp the Packers.

Not so Fast!

Things tend to change rapidly in the NFL- the idea is to be ahead of the curve, not behind it. Lets take a closer look at this one.

As bad as Green Bay’s loss to Tampa Bay was, the Bucs benefited from a blocked punt returned for a TD and an 80 yard kickoff return to set up another score along with three Aaron Rodgers interceptions. Green Bay actually outgained Tampa Bay both on the ground and in the air, compiling 436 total yards to Tampa’s 286. They also had 20 first downs compared to 17 for the Bucs.

Essentially, Green Bay outplayed Tampa as one might have expected, they just gave the game away on special teams and with turnovers. These things happen from time to time in the NFL- and when they do they skew results and create misperceptions.

In a nutshell, Green Bay is a much better team than last week’s result would suggest. After playing on the road in Tampa they now return home to Lambeau Field in a surly mood. Good teams coming off of bad losses are often strong bets because they were embarrassed the week before and will be determined to redeem themselves.

You can bet coach Mike McCarthy has that Tampa Bay game tape on a constant loop and the Packers are doing some soul searching in practice.

Meanwhile, the Cowboys are in precisely the opposite situation- coming off a big win, on a roll, everyone telling them how great they are, and due for an emotional letdown playing on the road after a huge national television night game against a hated division rival.

Look for the Packers to bring their A-Game and get a big home win against a Cowboy team that could show a lapse in focus this weekend.

ROCKBOXSPORTS.COM NFL SELECTION OF THE WEEK: PACKERS +3