One and Done: Dickies 500

Three races remain on the Sprint Cup Series schedule as the teams head to Fort Worth for the Dickies 500 at Texas Motor Speedway. This is the third and final "cookie cutter" (1.5-mile tri-oval) race of the Chase, and its defending champion is Carl Edwards.

Going into Texas, the championship is all but settled, as Jimmie Johnson only needs to finish 10th or better in the next three races, even if second-place Mark Martin wins all of the next three races and leads the most laps, to clinch the title.

It's a magnificent achievement if Johnson can pull it off, as it will be his fourth consecutive title (a Sprint Cup record). A 10th-place finish should be easy for Johnson at Texas, who has only failed to finish in the top 10 three times in 12 starts at Texas.

And, oh yeah, there are other drivers competing too. Sorry, forgot about that. Since this column is about One and Done, and I have a format that I prefer to follow, I'll get into some other picks too. But first and foremost of those picks:

Jimmie Johnson (avg. fn. 8.5): With one win and three second place finishes in his last six Texas starts, he's just too good. Does anybody else think it's time to Jimmie-proof the Chase? Texas wants to move this race date anyway—it's the opening week of deer hunting season in the state.

Tony Stewart (avg. fn. 12.6): He won this race in 2006, led laps here in the spring and has an average finish of 8.5 in the four times Texas has had a November date. It's not on par with Johnson, but it's the best you're going to get.

Carl Edwards (avg. fn. 13.4): Look, I know Cousin Carl hasn't been himself this year. The broken foot doesn't help. And to be honest, his Texas record isn't all that impressive other than the three wins—his only other top 10 was a 10th this spring. But hey, he does have two more wins than Johnson here, and in three less starts—meaning he wins at a 33.3 percent clip. I think that even despite his off year in 2009, that winning percentage merits a long, hard look.

Mark Martin (avg. fn. 13.8): Martin has no choice but to do well at Texas. After his wild ride at Talladega, he's mired in quite a hole in points, 184 back of Johnson. Simply put, he has to win, and not only win, but dominate. They've been hot and cold all season; this weekend we'll see how good the 5 team really is.

Dale Earnhardt Jr. (avg. fn. 13.9) : I know, I'm breaking my own rule - no picking drivers outside the Chase—but this one just felt right. Junior had six top 10 finishes in his first seven Texas starts, winning the first, and has led at least one lap in all of the past six Texas races. He also had the best driver rating last week at Talladega, and you never know what even the weakest link in the Hendrick Motorsports chain can do with a little bit of momentum.