Florida State vs. Clemson Pick, Odds & Point Spread: November 7th 2009

Florida State vs. Clemson
Free Pick: Florida State +8.5 -110 odds - point spreads
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Florida St. won a second straight game this past weekend, both of which have come by only three points. It was a shootout against the Wolfpack and the Seminoles survived to even their record at 4-4 on the year. A lot of people were down on Florida St. after the 2-4 start but after the huge come-from-behind victory over the Tar Heels, this team is playing with some excellent momentum and we get some great line value here. These two met at about the same time a season ago with Florida St. favored by 3.5 points and now it is a 12-point line shift to this season which is an extremely big move from one season to the next. The Seminoles came into that game last season 6-2 while Clemson was 4-4 so if anything, the only shift we should see if a reversal due to the home field. Instead, we are getting an additional five points based on nothing. Clemson won its third straight game on Saturday over Coastal Carolina to move to 5-3 on the season. The offense has come to life over those three games as it has averaged 42.3 ppg after scoring more than 30 points only once in its first five games. The points have come but the offense is still pretty inconsistent as the Tigers have been outgained in half of their games on the season. The defense has been tough as nails as the Tigers are 12th in the nation in total defense but that is skewed quite a bit. Clemson allowed 170 yards against Costal Carolina last week and three games into the season, allowed 54 total yards to Boston College in a horrible weather environment. It has faced two other teams that are ranked in the top 20 in total offense, Georgia Tech and TCU, and the defense allowed 418 and 388 total yards respectively so while the overall numbers may look solid, it struggles against the top offenses in the land. The Seminoles are 15th in the country and first in the ACC in total offense as they are averaging 443.6 ypg and that is due to the strength of the passing game. Quarterback Christian Ponder is having a solid season, as he is 13th in the country in passing efficiency and third in total offense. He has been fabulous, throwing for 2,403 yards and 13 scores and while his numbers were nothing special on Saturday with 277 yards and one touchdown, his leadership, the ability to make key plays, and playing with a great deal of pain trumps everything else. The amazing thing is that despite the spectacular season, he did not make the Doak Walker cut list which is a list of 15 quarterbacks. Further complicating matters against the Seminoles and their high-powered passing attack is the fact the Tigers will be without perhaps their top pass rusher in sophomore defensive end Da’Quan Bowers. Right now, Florida St. is looking at a 6-6 season based on the schedule as it will also be an underdog on the road at Florida while being favored against Maryland and Wake Forest. That means there can be no mistakes and a win here will take a lot of pressure off. Florida St. has lost one game by 10 points this season while the other three losses have come by four, seven and five points so it realistically is a few points away from being in much better shape with a much better record. That makes this line even more intriguing as to why it is so high. Coming off that shootout for the Seminoles looks to help matters as they are 7-0 ATS after a home game where both teams scored 31 or more points. Also, they are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games as an underdog between 3.5 and 10 points and this is the first time in the last 19 meetings that Florida St. has actually been an underdog in this series. 3* Florida St. Seminoles