The next NFL draft without a relative mountain of misfires will be the first.
No one gets this educated-guessing game consistently right, and some fail it in spectacular fashion. JaMarcus Russell is a former No. 1 draft pick. So is Tim Couch. There's a reason the careers of front office executives can live or die on draft night.
After examining our latest first-round mock, we'll spotlight three prospects sure to go higher than they probably should.
2019 NFL Mock Draft
1. Arizona Cardinals: Kyler Murray, QB, Oklahoma
2. San Francisco 49ers: Nick Bosa, DE, Ohio State
3. New York Jets: Josh Allen, DE/OLB, Kentucky
4. Oakland Raiders: Quinnen Williams, DT, Alabama
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Devin White, LB, LSU
6. New York Giants: Dwayne Haskins, QB, Ohio State
7. Jacksonville Jaguars: Jawaan Taylor, OT, Florida
8. Detroit Lions: T.J. Hockenson, TE, Iowa
9. Buffalo Bills: Ed Oliver, DT, Houston
10. Denver Broncos: Drew Lock, QB, Missouri
11. Cincinnati Bengals: Devin Bush, LB, Michigan
12. Green Bay Packers: D.K. Metcalf, WR, Ole Miss
13. Miami Dolphins: Brian Burns, DE, Florida State
14. Atlanta Falcons: Montez Sweat, DE, Mississippi State
15. Washington Redskins: Daniel Jones, QB, Duke
16. Carolina Panthers: Clelin Ferrell, DE, Clemson
17. New York Giants (via Cleveland Browns): Rashan Gary, DE, Michigan
18. Minnesota Vikings: Andre Dillard, OT, Washington State
19. Tennessee Titans: Christian Wilkins, DT, Clemson
20. Pittsburgh Steelers: Deandre Baker, CB, Georgia
21. Seattle Seahawks: Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, S, Florida
22. Baltimore Ravens: Hakeem Butler, WR, Iowa State
23. Houston Texans: Jonah Williams, OT, Alabama
24. Oakland Raiders (via Chicago Bears): Byron Murphy, CB, Washington
25. Philadelphia Eagles: Josh Jacobs, RB, Alabama
26. Indianapolis Colts: N'Keal Harry, WR, Arizona State
27. Oakland Raiders (via Dallas Cowboys): Noah Fant, TE, Iowa
28. Los Angeles Chargers: Cody Ford, G/T, Oklahoma
29. Kansas City Chiefs: Greedy Williams, CB, LSU
30. Green Bay Packers (via New Orleans Saints): Amani Oruwariye, CB, Penn State
31. Los Angeles Rams: Dexter Lawrence, DT, Clemson
32. New England Patriots: Irv Smith Jr., TE, Alabama
Prospects Who Will Get Overdrafted
D.K. Metcalf, WR, Ole Miss
It isn't hard to envision one front office—or 10—falling in love with Metcalf. From his viral physique to his absurd combine showing of size and explosiveness (6'3", 228 lbs., 4.33-second 40-yard dash, 40.5" vertical), he might be the valedictorian when it comes to acing the eye test.
Oh, and some of his statistics are jaw-dropping, too. Over 19 games between 2017 and 2018, he turned 65 receptions into 1,215 yards and 12 touchdowns. That's 18.7 yards per catch and a score on every 5.4 touches.
However, he has more red flags than his draft stock suggests. He ran a limited route tree in college, struggled mightily with his change-of-direction testing (7.38-second three-cone drill, 4.5-second short shuttle) and had two of his three collegiate campaigns cut short by injury (broken foot in 2016, neck injury in 2018).
As Bleacher Report's Matt Miller relayed, scouts don't necessarily believe he's a first-round prospect, but they could see him getting drafted in the upper half:
"Many scouts are torn on where Metcalf will go. Many believe he's a second-round player, but note that general managers can get excited by traits and reach for rare athleticism or speed. Metcalf should be a Round 2 player, but no one I've spoken with will disregard rumors that the Buffalo Bills or Green Bay Packers could make him a top-15 pick."
The potential reward with Metcalf could be sky-high, but his cost doesn't depict the amount of risk attached to him.
Daniel Jones, QB, Duke
Jones is the latest passer developed by David Cutcliffe, who coached both Peyton and Eli Manning in their college careers.
Jones looks the part of a potential franchise quarterback. The 6'5", 220-pounder ran a pro-style offense at Duke, generated nearly 10,000 yards of total offense the last three seasons (8,201 passing, 1,323 rushing) and showed advanced mechanics for a 21-year-old prospect.
But he doesn't have elite arm talent, only completed 59.9 percent of his passes at Duke and offers less upside than you'd want in a potential first-round pick.
"Jones has good football IQ and is relatively mobile, but he appears to be more of a game manager than 'franchise' talent," NFL.com's Lance Zierlein wrote. "He's more of a Day 2 draft pick than Day 1."
Rashan Gary, DE, Michigan
Back in 2016, Gary was the top overall recruit in his class.
He had the tools to back up that designation, too. He was big, strong and incredibly explosive for a near-300-pound defensive tackle.
Michigan fans saw some of that potential come to life over his three seasons in Ann Arbor. But he's leaving school as a far-from-finished project, and none of his college stats jump off the page: 119 tackles, 23.0 tackles for loss and 9.5 sacks in 34 games.
His pass-rushing arsenal is limited, he can play faster than he should and, as his Wolverines career showed, there's no guarantee his natural traits will translate into major production. That's fine if he falls near the middle of the opening round (as he does above), but it could be problematic if he sneaks closer to the top five as he does on some other mock draft boards.