Is Ja Morant Enough for Murray State to Make a Cinderella Run?

There is no one else like Ja Morant.

The Murray State sophomore guard has put up numbers comparable to only five players over the last 25 years. None of them averaged more assists, rebounds or blocks, and only Oklahoma's Trae Young had a higher scoring output in 2017-18.

This season, Morant is the only Division I player averaging at least 20 points and eight assists, per Sports Reference. He's averaging 24.6 and 10, respectively.

It's fair to say Morant is the reason why Murray State is going to the Big Dance.

During the Ohio Valley Conference tournament, he piled up 29 points and eight assists in a semifinal win over Jacksonville State. In the final against Belmont, he finished with 36 points, seven rebounds and three assists.

He played all 40 minutes in both contests.

Morant was everything the Racers needed to earn the OVC's auto bid. But even with the superstar guard in tow, how far can they advance?

According to BracketMatrix.com, Murray State is overwhelmingly projected to be a No. 12 seed. That could drop to a No. 13, pending conference tournament results elsewhere.

In nine of the last 11 years, at least one No. 12 seed upset a No. 5 seed. And last season, two No. 13 seeds pulled off a first-round victory.

As with every tourney-bound team, the bracket makes all the difference.

Morant's best asset is elite athleticism, which demands extra attention from defenses when he's attacking the rim. He's a creative finisher and passer in traffic, which is in large part why Murray State ranks fifth nationally with a 58.2 percent shooting mark inside the arc. 

If the Racers draw a team that struggles to defend the paint, their chances of pulling off an upset will increase. But if they get pitted against the opposite, that will mitigate their greatest offensive strength.

Murray State shot 55 percent or worse from inside the arc in all four of its losses, as its offense isn't built to thrive on the perimeter. Morant shoots only 33.6 percent from long range, and no rotation player is above 40 percent.

Murray State does have a willing group of shooters, though. Morant, Leroy Buchanan and Tevin Brown all attempt at least 4.4 triples per game, and the stress Morant puts on a defense can create those looks.

Even after the Racers lost to Alabama, opposing head coach Avery Johnson praised Morant's impact on the game.

Murray State lost that contest 78-72 and later provided a 40-minute test at Auburn―a potential top-five seed―dropping that tilt 93-88. Morant totaled 63 points and 12 assists in those games, showing he's capable of carrying the Racers against SEC foes.

But the challenge is weighing "being competitive" against "wins."

According to WarrenNolan, the Racers have played six Quadrant 1 and 2 games. They went 2-4 in those games, beating Belmont in the OVC final and Austin Peay on the road. The losses came against Auburn, Alabama, Belmont and Jacksonville State.

Morant suffered an ankle injury early in the loss against Belmont, which may have contributed to the loss against Jacksonville State a week later. He's now healthy, and the Racers toppled both the Gamecocks and Bruins en route to the OVC tournament title.

However, the NCAA tournament is full of Quadrant 1 teams.

No matter who the Racers face, Morant's production shouldn't be a concern. The issue is whether Murray State's defense can hide a major weakness or lean on a spectacular strength.

If the Racers face a perimeter-oriented attack, they'll be in a better position to win. They boast the nation's third-lowest opponent three-point clip in the nation. Potential first-round matchups Virginia Tech, Auburn and Villanova all rank 33rd or higher nationally in three-point attempt rate. Marquette, Nevada and Buffalo are within the top 100, too.

The alternative is a problem.

Kansas, Florida State, Kansas State, Wisconsin, Maryland and Mississippi State all put less of an emphasis on long-range shots. And in 2018-19, the Racers lost all three times they surrendered a two-point clip of 60 percent or higher.

Squaring off with a team that has a strong interior presence could be Murray State's undoing. Morant can only impact the defense so much, and his offensive value cannot atone for all issues. His 33.6 percent usage rate is already enormous.

Morant's immense involvement does give the Racers slightly more benefit of the doubt.

Michael Hickey/Getty Images

"I thought we did a decent job of guarding him in the first half," an anonymous coach told Sam Vecenie of The Athletic. "But then in the second half, he won the game for them."

That is something no one can project.

We can't be certain how the bright spotlight of the NCAA tournament will affect Morant. He can take over a game at any moment, and a few critical plays―whether dunks, passes or threes―can shape a result.

Murray State might not need a highlight-reel performance from Morant until the Sweet 16 if its matchups are favorable enough. And at that point, a double-digit-seeded Racers squad would already be considered a Cinderella team in the 2019 tournament.

Morant is talented enough to propel Murray State. Heading into Selection Sunday, the question is how quickly he'll be forced to put on the glass slipper.

Statistics courtesy of KenPom.com or Sports-Reference.com, unless otherwise noted. Follow Bleacher Report writer David Kenyon on Twitter @Kenyon19_BR.