Oklahoma State is 8-4 in bowls under coach Mike Gundy and 3-1 both straight up and against the spread over its last four bowl games, including a pair of upsets.
Missouri, on the other hand, was an upset victim in its only bowl appearance under coach Barry Odom.
Can the Tigers avoid an upset bid from the Cowboys in the Liberty Bowl in Memphis?
College football point spread: The Tigers opened as 4.5-point favorites, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)
College football betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 37.8-27.5 Tigers (College football picks on every game)
Why the Missouri Tigers can cover the spread
Missouri started 3-0 this season then lost three straight, although two of those came against the two teams that played in the SEC Championship Game—East Division champion Georgia and College Football Playoff qualifier Alabama.
The Tigers then put up 65 points in a victory over Memphis and had Kentucky beat until a bad pass-interference call cost them the game. But Missouri rebounded to win its last four in a row, including a victory over a pretty good Florida team at the Swamp, to finish 4-4 in SEC action.
The Tigers are back in a bowl for the second straight season.
Missouri won those last four games by an average score of 40-16. The Tigers also outgained and outrushed each of those last four opponents, going 3-1 ATS along the way.
Why the Oklahoma State Cowboys can cover the spread
Oklahoma State started 3-0 this season, including a win over Boise State, then lost three of four, including a one-score decision against Iowa State.
The Cowboys then beat Big 12 runner-up Texas and lost to Baylor by four points. they were also defeated by eventual Big 12 champion and College Football Playoff qualifier Oklahoma 48-47 on a failed two-point conversion.
OSU rebounded to upset West Virginia, and while the Cowboys ended with a loss to bowl winner TCU to finish 3-6 in Big 12 play, they nonetheless are playing in a bowl for the 13th season in a row.
Oklahoma State outgained three of its last five opponents, including the Longhorns and Mountaineers.
The Cowboys beat West Virginia outright as six-point dogs, easily covered as 21-point dogs against the Sooners and beat Texas outright as three-point dogs.
Oklahoma State is 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS this season as an underdog on the betting lines.
Smart betting pick
Missouri owns the better defense in this matchup and should win this game. But the Cowboys proved to be a pain to teams like Texas, West Virginia and Oklahoma, and have enough to keep this one close as well.
The smart money at online betting sites takes the points with Oklahoma State.
College football betting trends
Missouri is 1-3 SU and ATS in its last four games versus Oklahoma State.
Oklahoma State is 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS in its last five games as underdog.
The total has gone under in five of Oklahoma State's last six games against the SEC.
All college football odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.