Fantasy Football Week 17 BS Meter
If you have anything to play for in Week 17 of fantasy football, you'll have to navigate playing time issues around the league. Early in the week, coaches may not admit how much they plan to play starters, but it's not hard to figure out which teams have motivation to stick with their top players and which ones should err on the side of caution.
With a victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers, the New Orleans Saints clinched the top seed in the NFC and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. Even though the Saints don't have any pressing injury concerns, risking someone like Drew Brees or Alvin Kamara in a meaningless game would be foolish.
The Dallas Cowboys won the NFC East after beating the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 16, and we already know they can't rise any further than the No. 4 seed. Ezekiel Elliott is the type of player who should get rest considering he's had such a busy season.
Another angle of the playing time debate is how teams out of contention treat key parts of the future. Odell Beckham Jr. has missed the last three weeks with a quad injury, so why would the New York Giants make him suit up to risk further injury if the game doesn't matter?
The B.S. Meter breaks down 10 situations covering the most pressing issues in fantasy football heading into Week 17. The statements will be rated from 1 to 10 with 1 being completely true and 10 being total B.S.
Note: All fantasy stats used to calculate finishes are from FantasyPros. All advanced stats are calculated using data from Pro Football Reference. All stats are based on a points-per-reception (PPR) format.
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The Cowboys Have No Reason to Risk Key Players
1 of 10
A 27-20 victory over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers allowed the Dallas Cowboys to clinch their first NFC East crown since 2016 when they went 13-3 as the top seed in the conference. Dallas heads into the final week of the season with a 9-6 record, which means it can't catch the 11-4 Chicago Bears for the No. 3 seed.
As the fourth seed in the NFC, the Cowboys will have a home game in the first round of the playoffs against the Seattle Seahawks or Minnesota Vikings depending on the results of Week 17. Because the Cowboys can't do anything to improve their seed or determine their opponent, the result of their game against the New York Giants doesn't matter.
Through 15 games, Ezekiel Elliott has logged 1,434 yards on 304 carries, both of which lead the league. On top of that, Elliott has 77 receptions for 567 yards on 95 targets. Even though he hasn't missed a game, Elliott has been on the injury report with various injuries, including hip and shoulder issues. There's no doubt Elliott is the most important offensive player, so even if he does play, it shouldn't be much of a workload.
According to Jon Machota of the Dallas Morning News, owner/general manager Jerry Jones said the team would "absolutely" play to win against the Giants. Of course, when the Cowboys owned the top seed in 2016, they didn't play Elliott and limited Dak Prescott to eight passes in the season finale. Those two players along with Amari Cooper should get similar treatment Sunday.
B.S. Meter on the Cowboys having no reason to risk key players: 1/10
Jeff Wilson Jr. Will Have a Big Workload in the Final Game
2 of 10
Matt Breida missed just one game (Week 14) before returning to action for the last two weeks. Unfortunately, Breida reinjured his ankle during Week 16 and has been ruled out for Week 17 by head coach Kyle Shanahan.
Breida's absence reopens the door for Jeff Wilson Jr. We've only seen Wilson play the last five games, but he's been impressive. During that stretch, Wilson has 257 yards on 63 carries (4.1 yards per carry) and 12 receptions for 98 yards on 15 targets. In the only game without Breida, Wilson carried 23 times for 90 yards and caught one of two targets for six yards in a Week 14 win over the Denver Broncos. It marked the only time a 49ers running back logged 20-plus carries in a game this season.
This week, Wilson should lead the way when the 49ers face the Rams in Los Angeles. With Breida out and Dante Pettis also sidelined, San Francisco is running out of reliable, healthy bodies, so the team will need Wilson to handle a heavy workload.
Luckily, this is a solid matchup for Wilson. On the season, the Rams have allowed 122 rushing yards per game, which is the 11th-most in the league. Plus, we've seen Wilson fare well in the passing game, as evidenced by his eight-reception, 73-yard performance against the Seattle Seahawks in Week 13. Wilson didn't play when the 49ers hosted the Rams back in Week 7.
The Rams still have something to play for with a first-round bye on the line, but even against a motivated defense, Wilson should have a busy day and a great chance to make a lasting impression heading into 2019.
B.S. Meter on Wilson having a big workload in Week 17: 2/10
Nick Foles Is a Viable Streamer for the Season Finale
3 of 10
The reigning Super Bowl champions are still in the hunt for the final playoff spot in the NFC. For the second straight week, the Philadelphia Eagles beat a team with at least 10 wins to stay alive heading into Week 17, and once again, Nick Foles was starting in place of the injured Carson Wentz.
After a slow start, Foles settled in and wound up torching the Houston Texans for 471 yards and four touchdowns (with an interception) on 35-of-49 passing in a wild 32-30 victory. Foles was the No. 3 quarterback for Week 16 with 30.9 fantasy points, so if you rolled with him as a streamer, Foles easily exceeded expectations. Over the last two weeks, he completed 59 of 80 passes (73.8 percent) for 741 yards with four touchdowns and two interceptions in wins over the Texans and Los Angeles Rams.
Head coach Doug Pederson announced Foles will remain the starter for the team's Week 17 road game against the Washington Redskins, according to Dave Spadaro of PhiladelphiaEagles.com. In Week 13, Wentz had 306 yards, two touchdowns and an interception on 27-of-39 passing in a 28-13 victory over Washington. The Redskins were eliminated from playoff contention in Week 16, so they can do nothing more than play the spoiler role.
The matchup isn't a concern, Foles is playing well and the Eagles need a win to have a chance at making the playoffs, so Foles is definitely a viable streamer for Week 17.
B.S. Meter on Foles being a viable streamer for the season finale: 3/10
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Sony Michel Should Stay Hot Against the Jets
4 of 10
It's hard to criticize Bill Belichick, but how the team used Sony Michel in Week 15 didn't make a lot of sense. He carried 13 times for 59 yards against the Pittsburgh Steelers on just 35.5 percent of the snaps. It was one of his quietest games of the season in terms of touches and snaps, odd considering he was playing well on a day when the New England Patriots were limited to just 10 points in a loss.
Apparently, the team realized the error and made Michel a focal point when he faced the Buffalo Bills in Week 16. Michel came through with 116 yards and a touchdown on 18 carries to total 18.6 fantasy points, which put him back in the RB1 category. Michel's performance marked the first time since Week 12 he had at least 100 yards on the ground. That was also the last time he found the end zone.
The Patriots cruised to a 24-12 victory, so Michel was needed for just 30.7 percent of the snaps, although he wound up seeing touches on all but five of his snaps. The Patriots are playing for a first-round bye and potentially the top seed in the AFC when they host the New York Jets this weekend. The last time the Patriots faced the Jets was Michel's 21-carry, 133-yard effort in Week 12, so recent history is on his side.
Michel's Week 16 performance should have earned back the trust of his fantasy owners. The Jets just gave up 95 rushing yards and a touchdown on 15 carries to Jamaal Williams, so the matchup should be a good one for Michel. He's safe to play with top-15 expectations on Sunday.
B.S. Meter on Michel staying hot against the Jets: 4/10
The Panthers Will Feature Christian McCaffrey
5 of 10
The Carolina Panthers still had an outside chance to make the playoffs despite a six-game losing streak coming into Week 16. They played without Cam Newton (shoulder), so Taylor Heinicke got the call to start against the Atlanta Falcons. Carolina lost the game to officially fall out of playoff contention, but Christian McCaffrey's massive season hit two historic milestones.
McCaffrey snatched 12 of 13 targets for 77 yards in the loss, which gave him 106 receptions for the season and the record for most receptions by a running back in a single season. The previous record was held by Matt Forte, who had 102 receptions as a member of the Chicago Bears in 2014.
In addition to his big day through the air, McCaffrey had his fourth 100-yard rushing effort of the season with 21 carries for 101 yards. He has 1,080 rushing yards and became the third running back to have 1,000 rushing yards and 100 receptions in a season along with Forte (2014) and LaDainian Tomlinson (2003).
Could that be it for McCaffrey? According to Jourdan Rodrigue of the Charlotte Observer, Ron Rivera said, "What we have to do is we have to be smart with these guys going forward." He added, "You go into Week 17 obviously trying to win. But at the same time, we have to be smart. We have to be realistic. Be honest."
McCaffrey is obviously a huge part of the Panthers' future, so the team may want to play it smart and keep him limited or completely out of the Week 17 matchup with the New Orleans Saints. He played 90.1 percent of the snaps in Week 16 and is averaging more than 97 percent of the snaps per game. Keep an eye on this situation throughout the week if you are banking on McCaffrey to handle his normal workload in the finale.
B.S. Meter on the Panthers featuring McCaffrey: 5/10
The Miami Dolphins Have Fantasy Value in Their Backfield
6 of 10
The Miami Dolphins came into the Week 16 matchup with the Jacksonville Jaguars still technically alive for the playoffs at 7-7. However, they were doing so without the services of Frank Gore, who had been ruled out after a foot injury suffered in Week 15. When Gore went down, the Dolphins turned to Kalen Ballage and, to his credit, Ballage racked up 123 yards on 12 carries, including a 75-yard touchdown.
In that same game, Kenyan Drake had a single carry for six yards and caught all three of his targets for 28 yards. He played 52.8 percent of the snaps compared to Ballage's 49.1 percent. It looked like Ballage was in line to handle the majority of the carries in Week 16. The Dolphins didn't see it that way.
Ballage's snap share dropped to 30.4 percent, and he finished with four carries for 10 yards, but he did add two receptions for 39 yards on four targets. Meanwhile, Drake led the team with six carries for 23 yards and caught four of five targets for 31 yards while playing 84.8 percent of the snaps. That marked only the third time this season and first time since Week 2 that Drake led the team in carries. His snap share was the highest of the season and the first time he eclipsed 60 percent since Week 7.
The Dolphins wound up losing the game 17-7 after entering the fourth quarter tied at seven. Even though Drake saw a massive snap share, he finished with just 9.4 fantasy points. Miami should feature Drake, especially with Gore out, but it can't be trusted to make that move this weekend against the Buffalo Bills. The handling of this backfield kills any chances of reliable fantasy value for Drake or Ballage.
B.S. Meter on the Dolphins having fantasy value in their backfield: 6/10
The Rams Will Bring Todd Gurley Back for Week 17
7 of 10
The biggest fantasy week of the season didn't include the top player in fantasy football. Todd Gurley had to sit out Week 16 because of a knee injury, so the Los Angeles Rams turned to C.J. Anderson to lead the way in the divisional battle with the Arizona Cardinals. It turns out the Rams made the right call.
Anderson signed with the team on December 18, but the Rams decided to go with the veteran over rookie John Kelly in Gurley's absence. While Anderson certainly had a favorable matchup, no one could have expected him to pile up 167 yards and a touchdown on 20 carries in a 31-9 victory. The level of opponent definitely played into Anderson's success and likely played into the team's decision to rest Gurley instead of risking him.
Even with the victory, Los Angeles still hasn't clinched the No. 2 seed in the NFC. It holds a one-game lead over the Chicago Bears, and both teams will play at the same time Sunday. The Rams host the San Francisco 49ers, while the Bears take on the Vikings in Minnesota. A win for the Rams or a loss for the Bears would give Los Angeles the first-round bye, but if they wind up with the same record, Chicago would earn the No. 2 seed thanks to a head-to-head victory.
Is that enough reason to risk Gurley? According to Ian Rapoport of NFL Network, the team could hold him out again for Week 17. Head coach Sean McVay said Gurley is "day-to-day," per Lindsey Thiry of ESPN.com. The 49ers allow the 12th-fewest rushing yards per game on the season at 110.6, whereas the Cardinals are the worst rushing defense in the league.
Considering how well Anderson ran and the strength of the team as a whole, it doesn't appear as if the Rams need to risk bringing Gurley back for the final game of the year. With the ultimate goal being a run into February, Gurley's health for the playoffs is the most important factor in deciding his status for Week 17. This is another injury to follow closely leading up to Sunday.
B.S. Meter on the Rams bringing back Gurley for Week 17: 7/10
LeSean McCoy Will Have a Huge Role in Week 17
8 of 10
McCoy sat out Week 15 with a hamstring injury, and even though the Buffalo Bills have been out of contention for weeks, he returned to action in Week 16 against the New England Patriots. However, McCoy didn't start the game and had a minimal role.
According to Mike Rodak of ESPN.com, McCoy said he didn't start because of a "private situation" with head coach Sean McDermott. McCoy came into the game on the second play for one of his six carries on the day. He finished with just nine rushing yards and added three receptions for 10 yards on three targets even though he was on the field for 50.8 percent of the snaps.
McCoy's light workload came on a day when the Bills didn't have the services of Chris Ivory and Marcus Murphy, although losing the game 24-12 didn't help McCoy's chances of having a big carry share. Keith Ford saw seven carries for 33 yards and caught two of four targets for 14 yards while playing 49.2 percent of the snaps in only his second game.
The Bills can save $6.4 million by cutting McCoy in 2019, per Rodak, so there's a decent chance he's not part of the plans after this week. In fact, based on what we saw in Week 16, McCoy might not be in the plans for much of a role in Week 17 when the Bills face the Dolphins. It's been a miserable season for McCoy, and the team shouldn't need him to play a big role to evaluate where he stands.
B.S. Meter on McCoy having a huge role in Week 17: 8/10
The Giants Should Play Odell Beckham in Week 17
9 of 10
When Odell Beckham missed Week 14 with a quad injury, the situation was a bit of a surprise. There didn't appear to be any major warning signs leading into that game, but he was ruled out a day before the New York Giants faced the Washington Redskins. That indicated the injury was bad enough to make the decision before Beckham even had a chance to go through pregame warm-ups.
We've yet to see Beckham play since Week 13, and other than one limited practice heading into Week 15, he hasn't practiced at all. At 5-10, the only thing the Giants can affect in their game with the Dallas Cowboys is the 2019 draft order. Dallas is locked into the fourth seed, so the Giants can't even play a spoiler role against a division rival.
Even though the Giants have avoided putting Beckham on injured reserve, it doesn't make much sense to bring him back for a meaningless Week 17 game, especially if he isn't close to full health. The team signed Beckham to a five-year deal worth $65 million guaranteed right before the season started, so he's clearly a huge part of the future.
Beckham may want to play if he's healthy enough to go, but there's no way that decision should come down to him. The Giants need to protect their investment in the best player on the team. It's been a buzzkill to lose Beckham for the fantasy playoffs, so hopefully he sits this week and returns to top form in 2019.
B.S. Meter on if the Giants should play Beckham in Week 17: 9/10
You Can Use the Saints' Top Fantasy Options with Confidence
10 of 10
A comeback victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers allowed the New Orleans Saints to clinch the top seed in the NFC and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. The Saints host the Carolina Panthers in Week 17, and neither team has anything to play for, so it could turn into a battle of backups.
According to Mike Triplett of ESPN.com, head coach Sean Payton said the team would approach the game against the Panthers like any other with the intention to win, although he wouldn't specify whether healthy starters would see the field. It's been a relatively healthy season for Drew Brees, Alvin Kamara, Mark Ingram and Michael Thomas, although taking any chances on those players doesn't make a lot of sense knowing this team has a real chance to win the Super Bowl.
It would be a great time for the Saints to rest the starters and give the backups extended time to get ready for the playoffs, specifically Teddy Bridgewater. The team acquired Bridgewater at the end of the preseason to provide a quality backup for Brees, but he's appeared in only four games and thrown just one pass.
Even if we see the top players take the field in Week 17, you shouldn't expect them to log much time. If you're banking on Brees, Kamara, Ingram or Thomas this week, rethink your strategy and starting lineup.
B.S. Meter on being able to use the Saints' top fantasy options with confidence: 10/10
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