NFL Predictions Week 10: Last-Minute Picks and Advice for Sunday's Schedule

Joe Tansey@JTansey90Featured ColumnistNovember 11, 2018

Los Angeles Rams quarterback Jared Goff (16) warms up before an NFL football game against the New Orleans Saints in New Orleans, Sunday, Nov. 4, 2018. (AP Photo/Butch Dill)
Butch Dill/Associated Press

Week 10 of the NFL season doesn't feature a plethora of marquee matchups, but there are plenty of intriguing betting options throughout the 12-game slate.

Among the numbers that stand out are the four teams favored by nine or more points, as well as one of the lowest over/under lines of the season.

Three of the four overwhelming favorites are at home, while two of them are taking on divisional foes during Sunday's late window.

As for the lowest over/under line of Week 10, the situation surrounding the game is a doozy, but you can guarantee we will be betting on it.

                

NFL Week 10 Sunday Schedule and Odds

New England (-6.5) at Tennessee (1 p.m., CBS) (Over/Under: 47)

Jacksonville at Indianapolis (-3) (1 p.m., CBS) (Over/Under: 47)

Buffalo at New York Jets (-7.5) (1 p.m., CBS) (Over/Under: 36.5) 

Detroit at Chicago (-7) (1 p.m., Fox) (Over/Under: 44.5)

New Orleans (-5.5) at Cincinnati (1 p.m., Fox) (Over/Under: 54) 

Atlanta (-6) at Cleveland (1 p.m., Fox) (Over/Under: 50.5)

Arizona at Kansas City (-16.5) (1 p.m., Fox) (Over/Under: 49.5)

Washington at Tampa Bay (-3) (1 p.m., Fox) (Over/Under: 50.5)

Los Angeles Chargers (-10) at Oakland (4:05 p.m. Fox) (Over/Under: 50) 

Miami at Green Bay (-10) (4:25 p.m., CBS) (Over/Under: 47.5) 

Seattle at Los Angeles Rams (-9.5) (4:25 p.m., CBS) (Over/Under: 50.5) 

Dallas at Philadelphia (-7) (8:20 p.m., NBC) (Over/Under: 44)

All Times ET. Picks against the spread in bold. Odds via OddsShark.

                   

Go After the Heavy Favorites

Four teams, three of which are near the top of their respective conferences, are favored by more than one possession in Week 10.

While it may seem like a bad decision to bet on all four, there's reason to believe every member of the quartet can cover.

The Kansas City Chiefs are the first overwhelming favorite to take the gridiron as part of the early-afternoon slate.

Ron Schwane/Associated Press

Andy Reid's team has won three of its four games at Arrowhead Stadium by double digits this term, with the seven-point win over Denver Broncos in Week 8 the only exception.

The Chiefs are playing at home against an Arizona Cardinals team that's lost five of its eight games by double digits, including all three of its road trips.

All three of the late-afternoon matchups feature spreads of nine points or more, with the Los Angeles Chargers, Green Bay Packers and Los Angeles Rams the favored teams.

The Chargers face an Oakland Raiders team it beat by 16 points at home in Week 5, and both of their AFC West games have been decided by double digits.

Philip Rivers and Co. are going up against the second-worst scoring defense, which has conceded 31.5 points per game, while the Chargers defense opposes a Raiders offense that's scored more than 10 points once in the past four games.

The Los Angeles Rams are also meeting a divisional foe for the second time, as they welcome the Seattle Seahawks to the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum.

The Rams are coming off their first loss of the season to New Orleans and a stretch in which they played four of five games on the road.

Bill Feig/Associated Press

Although betting on a 9.5-point line in a divisional game is sometimes frowned upon, the Rams have outscored opponents 101-81 at home, and they will be looking to make a statement ahead of the Week 11 clash with the Chiefs in Mexico City.

As for the Green Bay Packers, they are facing a must-win game at Lambeau Field after suffering defeats in three of their past four games.

In his career, Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers has experienced success against the AFC East, with 2,490 passing yards and 14 touchdowns in 10 games.

In addition to the aforementioned, the Miami Dolphins are 1-3 on the road and have been outscored 119-67 on their travels.

             

Take the Bills-Jets Over

It can't be that hard for Matt Barkley and Josh McCown to lead their teams to a combined 37 points, right?

While it's difficult to admit, we will have an eye on the AFC East clash between the Buffalo Bills and New York Jets because of the futility we expect.

A 36.5-point over/under line is one of the lowest we will see all season, and while no one is going to willingly admit they are betting on this game, you should go after the over.

Most of the trust is because of McCown's competence under center for a Jets team he quarterbacked a year ago.

Seth Wenig/Associated Press

In his past four games at MetLife Stadium, McCown's led the Jets to an average of 29.75 points, including a 34-21 triumph over the Bills.

Barkley, who has a 3-8 record as a starter, is more of an unknown. His most recent NFL appearance came in Week 17 of the 2016 season for the Chicago Bears.

While the teams Barkley has quarterbacked haven't been successful in the win column, they have been able to score in double digits in eight of those starts.

Barkley's thrown five touchdowns in his past four starts, but a number that's more important entering Sunday is the 10 interceptions he's tossed in his past three starts, which could set the Jets up for defensive touchdowns to help ease the total score toward the over.

Taking the over in this game is still a risk given the propensity of both teams to trip over their own feet, but expect enough competence under center for 37 points to be reached.

                      

Follow Joe on Twitter, @JTansey90.

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