Week 7 NFL Picks: Predictions for Vegas' Final Odds, Props on Sunday's Schedule

Kristopher Knox@@kris_knoxFeatured ColumnistOctober 21, 2018

FOXBOROUGH, MA - OCTOBER 04:  Andrew Luck #12 of the Indianapolis Colts throws a pass during the first half against the New England Patriots at Gillette Stadium on October 4, 2018 in Foxborough, Massachusetts.  (Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images)
Maddie Meyer/Getty Images

Week 7 of the 2018 NFL season got off to a disappointing start. Thursday night's matchup was exciting for all of about 30 seconds. Arizona Cardinals rookie Josh Rosen threw a pick-six on the second play from scrimmage, and the Denver Broncos essentially cruised from there.

The rest of Week 7, though, looks to be much more competitive. Tom Brady will face off against a young and competitive Chicago Bears defense, Andy Dalton and Patrick Mahomes will engage in an aerial duel, and Drew Brees will try to take down the one team he's never beaten—the Baltimore Ravens.

Of course, we understand those of you who still want to make Week 7 a little more interesting.

We're going to examine the latest odds and over/unders—courtesy of OddsShark—make score predictions and look at some intriguing props from the schedule's not-so-marquee matchups.


Week 7 Odds, Over/Unders and Score Predictions

Tennessee Titans at Los Angeles Chargers (in London)

When: Sunday at 9:30 a.m. ET

Line: LAC -6.5

Over/Under: 45

Prediction: Chargers 26, Titans 17


New England Patriots at Chicago Bears

When: Sunday at 1 p.m. ET

Line: NE -2

Over/Under: 48.5

Prediction: Patriots 28, Bears 25


Cleveland Browns at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

When: Sunday at 1 p.m. ET

Line: TB -3.5

Over/Under: 52

Prediction: Buccaneers 31, Browns 30


Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia Eagles

When: Sunday at 1 p.m. ET

Line: PHI -5

Over/Under: 44.5

Prediction: Eagles 24, Panthers 20


Minnesota Vikings at New York Jets

When: Sunday at 1 p.m. ET

Line: MIN -3.5

Over/Under: 46

Prediction: Vikings 33, Jets 27


Detroit Lions at Miami Dolphins

When: Sunday at 1 p.m. ET

Line: DET -3

Over/Under: 46.5

Prediction: Lions 20, Dolphins 18


Buffalo Bills at Indianapolis Colts

When: Sunday at 1 p.m. ET

Line: IND -7.5

Over/Under: 43

Prediction: Colts 21, Bills 18


Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars

When: Sunday at 1 p.m. ET

Line: JAC -4

Over/Under: 41

Prediction: Jaguars 26, Texans 20


New Orleans Saints at Baltimore Ravens

When: Sunday at 4:05 p.m. ET

Line: BAL -2.5

Over/Under: 49

Prediction: Saints 23, Ravens 20


Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins

When: Sunday at 4:25 p.m. ET

Line: DAL -1

Over/Under: 41.5

Prediction: Redskins 20, Cowboys 17


Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers

When: Sunday at 4:25 p.m. ET

Line: LAR -9.5

Over/Under: 52

Prediction: Rams 33, 49ers 23


Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs

When: Sunday at 8:20 p.m. ET

Line: KC -6

Over/Under: 58.5

Prediction: Chiefs 35, Bengals 32


New York Giants at Atlanta Falcons

When: Monday at 8:15 p.m. ET

Line: ATL -4

Over.Under: 52

Prediction: Falcons 28, Giants, 24

NASHVILLE, TN - OCTOBER 14:  Quarterback Marcus Mariota #8 of the Tennessee Titans plays against the Baltimore Ravens at Nissan Stadium on October 14, 2018 in Nashville, Tennessee.  (Photo by Frederick Breedon/Getty Images)
Frederick Breedon/Getty Images


Week 7 Props

Marcus Mariota OVER 215.5 Yards Passing

Last week, Tennessee Titans quarterback Marcus Mariota got shell-shocked by the Baltimore Ravens defense. He was sacked 11 times and passed for a mere 117 yards.

While we don't expect Mariota to bounce back in a big way against the Los Angeles Chargers, we do believe he'll bounce back enough to top 215.5 yards passing, which is the yardage line found at OddsChecker.com.

The Chargers defense has talent, but it isn't on the level of Baltimore's smothering squad. L.A. is giving up an average of 260.8 yards per game through the air, and it has just five more sacks on the season than the Ravens had last week.

The Chargers also have a propensity for scoring points—they average 29.2 per game—so the Titans are going to have to work to keep pace. With Derrick Henry and Dion Lewis both averaging less than 3.5 yards per carry, it will be largely up to Mariota to do so.


Houston Texans OVER 17.5 Points

The Houston Texans haven't topped 20 points in either of their last two games, but we like them to at least come close to that mark this week against the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Jacksonville has a ton of talent on its defense, but the talent hasn't been translating to results on the field as of late. The Jaguars are allowing just 21 points per game for the year but have allowed a total of 70 points over the last two weeks.

"That's who we are right now," Jaguars defensive end Calais Campbell said of the defense and its current identity, per Michael DiRocco of ESPN.com.

You can find even 50-50 odds over on OddsChecker.com for the over on 17.5 Texans points. That's a full five points below Houston's season average, and it's a mark the Texans should be able to hit, barring a complete resurgence by the Jaguars defense.


Andrew Luck UNDER 255.5 Yards Passing

Our last prop—also courtesy of OddsChecker.com—involves Indianapolis Colts quarterback Andrew Luck and his matchup with the Buffalo Bills.

The over/under for Luck's passing yardage is set at 255.5 yards, which seems low when you consider he's passed at least 31 times in every game this season. However, a closer look reveals that a high number of passes hasn't always translated to a high volume of production for Luck.

Luck passed 31 times against the Washington Redskins and 40 times against the Philadelphia Eagles. He failed to reach 180 yards passing in either of those games. The Redskins have the league's fifth-ranked defense (326.2 yards per game allowed), while the Eagles are ranked 12th (352.8).

Buffalo is ranked third in total defense and allows just 311.7 yards per game.

The Bills, who average just 12.7 points per game, will also be starting recently signed Derek Anderson at quarterback. Luck likely won't find himself engaged in a shootout.


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