Los Angeles Chargers vs. Cleveland Browns: Odds, Analysis, NFL Betting Pick

OddsShark.com@@OddsSharkFeatured ColumnistOctober 11, 2018

CLEVELAND, OH - OCTOBER 07: Baker Mayfield #6 of the Cleveland Browns throws a pass in the third quarter against the Baltimore Ravens at FirstEnergy Stadium on October 7, 2018 in Cleveland, Ohio. (Photo by Jason Miller/Getty Images)
Jason Miller/Getty Images

The Chargers and Browns are not divisional rivals but they have met each of the last three seasons. Los Angeles won two of those games straight up, but Cleveland covered the spread all three games.

The Browns go looking for their first two-game winning streak in four years when they host the Chargers on Sunday afternoon at the place they're now calling The Bakery.

            

NFL point spread: This game opened as a pick'em; the total was 46.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 26.4-20.7 Browns (NFL picks on every game)

Check out the OddsShark podcast on iTunes or Spotify or at OddsShark.libsyn.com for more odds information, betting picks and a breakdown of this week’s top sports betting news.

        

Why the Chargers Can Cover the Spread

Los Angeles owns its own two-game winning streak after topping Oakland last week 26-10.

The Chargers drove the opening possession of the game to a field goal, led 17-3 at the half and pushed that advantage to 26-3 early in the fourth quarter on their way toward the victory and the cover as six-point favorites.

Los Angeles outgained the Raiders 412-289, held a 35/25 advantage in time of possession and won the turnover battle 2-0.

Meanwhile, the Chargers defense held Oakland out of the end zone until just five minutes remained in the game.

Los Angeles has now outgained and outrushed four of its five opponents this season. At 3-2 overall, the Chargers trail 5-0 Kansas City by two games in the AFC West, so they can't afford to fall much further behind.

           

Why the Browns Can Cover the Spread

The Browns are now 2-2-1 on the season, and 4-1 ATS, after beating Baltimore in overtime last week 12-9.

Cleveland trailed the Ravens early 3-0, scored the next nine points of the game but allowed Baltimore to force OT with a field goal with a minute to go in regulation.

The Browns then won it with a pair of defensive stops in the extra period, a long third-down conversion and a Greg Joseph field goal with two seconds left in overtime.

Cleveland produced 416 yards of offense and won the turnover battle 2-1, creating a plus-3-point differential.

The Browns now lead the league this season in turnover ratio at plus-8. They've also outgained three of five opponents this season and outrushed four of them. But for some missed kicks early this season and an iffy call in Week 4 against the Oakland Raiders, Cleveland could be 5-0.

         

Smart Betting Pick

Los Angeles won this matchup last year 19-10 but the Browns covered as 13-point dogs. While the Chargers are still a pretty good team, Cleveland is better than it was that day. The smart money bets the Browns here.

          

NFL Betting Trends

The Chargers are 0-6 ATS in their past six games versus the Browns.

The total has gone under in three of the Chargers' past four games versus the Browns.

The Chargers are 1-4 ATS in their past five games after an ATS win.

            

All NFL odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.  

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