Baltimore Ravens vs. Cleveland Browns Odds, Analysis, NFL Betting Pick

Baltimore owns the recent rivalry with Cleveland, winning 18 of the last 20 matchups outright, including the last five in a row, going 5-0 against the spread in the process. But this isn't the same Browns team that dropped two games to the Ravens last season. Who's the smart bet for Sunday afternoon's AFC North battle in Cleveland?

NFL point spread: The Ravens opened as 1.5-point favorites; the total was 47 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 23.5-20.6 Ravens (NFL picks on every game)

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Why the Ravens can cover the spread

Baltimore is 2-0 both straight up and ATS the last two weeks, after besting the Steelers in Pittsburgh last week 26-14. The Ravens bounced out to a 14-0 lead, let the Steelers forge a 14-14 tie into halftime, then won the second half 12-0 for the outright victory as three-point dogs.

On the night Baltimore out-gained Pittsburgh 451-284, out-rushed the Steelers 96-19, made 24 first downs to just 14 for Pittsburgh and held a 35/25 advantage in time of possession. And that's how you wins games and cover spreads on the road in the NFL.

The Ravens also got a four-for-four field goal performance from their not-so-secret weapon Justin Tucker, including a couple of clutch long kicks that helped Baltimore pull away in the second half

Two weeks ago the Ravens trailed Denver 7-0 early and later 14-7 but ended the game with a 20-0 run for a 27-14 win, and covered as five-point favorites.

Why the Browns can cover the spread

The Browns are trying to bounce back this week from a tough 45-42 overtime loss at Oakland last week. Cleveland spotted the Raiders an early defensive touchdown, then scored the game's next 17 points and led 17-14 at the half. The Browns pushed that advantage to 28-14 midway through the third quarter, but later allowed an Oakland score with 30 seconds to go to force OT, where Cleveland eventually lost on a Raiders field goal with two minutes left.

On the afternoon the Browns racked up 487 yards on offense, 208 on the ground and 279 through the air. Unfortunately four turnovers basically cost Cleveland 21 points.

Two weeks ago the Browns snapped that long winless streak with a 21-17 come-from-behind victory over the Jets.

Smart betting pick

Baltimore took both games from Cleveland last year by scores of 24-10 and 27-10, but these teams are closer now than they were then. And the Browns are playing with some verve with Baker Mayfield at quarterback and Nick Chubb lugging the ball. Smart money here likes Cleveland.

NFL betting trends

The total has gone under in the Ravens' last three games vs the Browns.

The total has gone under in five of the Browns' last six games at home vs teams with winning records.

The Ravens are 2-12 SU in their last 14 games after consecutive wins.

All NFL odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.