Pocono Might Be Another Denny Hamlin Show

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When Kyle Busch looks in the mirror these days, he may see Jeff Gordon staring back at him. I guess that wouldn’t be so bad if he saw Ingrid standing behind him too. Sorry Shrub. Don’t get you hopes up.

The mirror image comes from the similar ways the two NASCAR stars have dominated the Cup Series - Gordon in 2007 and Busch this season - the last two years.

After 13 races in 2007, Gordon had won three. Kyle has four wins so far this year. Gordon led second place Jimmy Johnson by 152 points while Busch has a 142 point advantage on Jeff Burton.

In the all important - at least to the NASCAR stat geeks - Loop Driver Rating, Gordon had a DR of 111.4 including five straight races of at least 120.0. Currently, Kyle Busch has a DR of 115.2 with four consecutive, single race DR’s of 120.0 or better.

Gordon won the Pocono 500 in 2007. His Driver Rating at Pocono Raceway going into the 500 is fifth best at 97.5. He is a four-time winner at Pocono and has a career Ave Finish of 10.2. Kyle Busch has a Driver Rating of 87.0 - 12th best - for the PA track and an Ave Finish of 16.7. Are you inspired yet?

Maybe we are looking at the wrong Busch. Brother Kurt has a DR of 116.6 and series best stats of 241 Green Flag Passes, 207 Fastest Laps, 343 Laps Led and 952 Ave Points Gained. But the two-time Pocono winner would be hard to pick, given his 2008 performances so far.

The Loop Stat stud of the week is Kyle’s teammate Denny Hamlin. In his four career Pocono appearances Denny has finished top five three times and won twice. His Ave Start - 2.5, Ave Mid-Race - 3.0, Ave Position - 4.6 and Ave Finish - 2.8 are all category leading. His Driver Rating is a stunning 133.1. Unlike Kurt Busch, Hamlin is having a very good 2008. He looks like the logical choice this weekend.

Smoke and Mirrors

Hamlin’s other teammate - Tony Stewart- has Pocono’s third best Driver Rating.  2008 has been somewhat a disappointment for Stewart fans. He remains win-less for ‘08, often falling victim to race incidents that aren’t his fault. His scathing, back-handed slap at Elliott Sadler after the Dover big one was funny. The result, not so much.  I wonder if the distractions of silly season are hurting Stewart’s on-track performance.  But after watching him do everything but take tickets at his Prelude to the Dream exhibition race at Eldora Speedway this week - and then win the feature race going away - I would say he no problem with focus during a race.  Smoke is a past winner at Pocono and has a couple of category leading stats too.  If the karma from Eldora carries over this could be the week that starts his annual summer streak.

Ryan Newman is the only other driver with a DR over 100 - 101.9 to be exact.  Newman has run more laps in the top fifteen than anyone else at the Green two and a half mile with 931.  That team has been frustratingly inconsistent since Daytona. I have a hard time pulling the Rocketman’s trigger.

Jimmy Johnson swept both Pennsylvania races in 2004. He has seven top tens and no DNF’s in his carreer here. Driver Rating of 93.8 is ninth best behind Kevin Harvick, Mark Martin and my dark-horse pick, Brian Vickers.

Vickers’ DR of 97.0 is sixth best, he’s run 810 laps in the top 15 over the last six races and led 140 of them. The Toyota horsepower should be an advantage on the three long Pocono straights. Brian could win here.

But I’ve got to take Denny Hamlin.  Same Toyota motor, much better track record.  Mark it down.

Photo credit: Icon Sports Media, inc.