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New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady leaves the field after losing to the Jacksonville Jaguars in an NFL football game, Sunday, Sept. 16, 2018, in Jacksonville, Fla. The Jaguars won 31-20. (AP Photo/Stephen B. Morton)
New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady leaves the field after losing to the Jacksonville Jaguars in an NFL football game, Sunday, Sept. 16, 2018, in Jacksonville, Fla. The Jaguars won 31-20. (AP Photo/Stephen B. Morton)Stephen B. Morton/Associated Press

New England Patriots vs. Detroit Lions: Odds, Analysis, NFL Betting Pick

OddsShark.comSep 19, 2018

The New England Patriots (1-1) will look to bounce back from a rare loss when they visit a familiar face in Detroit against the Lions (0-2) as solid road favorites at sportsbooks for the Week 3 Sunday night game.

The Patriots fell to the Jacksonville Jaguars 31-20 last week for the first time ever with Tom Brady under center, and next he will face his former defensive coordinator, Matt Patricia, who is now the head coach of the Lions.

NFL point spread: The Patriots opened as seven-point favorites; the total was 50 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

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NFL betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 28.5-18.1 Patriots (NFL picks on every game)

Check out the OddsShark podcast on iTunes or at OddsShark.libsyn.com for more odds information, betting picks and a breakdown of this week's top sports betting news.

Why the Patriots can cover the spread

New England has been outstanding in rebound spots recently under head coach Bill Belichick, going 9-3 against the spread in its last 12 games after failing to cover. The Patriots also have not been in that situation often lately, especially on the road, going 14-4 ATS in their last 18 away from home overall.

The addition of wide receiver Josh Gordon can only help Brady and the offense as they await the return of Julian Edelman, and Detroit's defense has been poor in the first two games versus weaker opponents than New England.

Why the Lions can cover the spread

The Lions have not looked good in losses to the New York Jets and San Francisco 49ers, but they did rally to cover the spread against the latter on Sunday.

Detroit quarterback Matthew Stafford remains one of the best in the league and never gives up no matter what the score is, and that was evident again at San Francisco, as he completed 34-of-53 passes for 347 yards with three touchdowns and no picks.

Stafford will be playing for pride at home as an underdog and motivated to prove he can perform much better at Ford Field than in the team's season-opening loss to New York.

Smart betting pick

The quarterback matchup is one of the best in Week 3, and whichever defense comes up bigger will decide this game.

Patricia has not looked like an NFL head coach so far, and he will be opposed by one of the all-time greats in his mentor, Belichick.

The duo of Brady and Belichick is much stronger than Stafford and Patricia here.

Take the Patriots.

NFL betting trends

The Patriots are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games versus the Lions.

The total has gone over in eight of the Lions' last 10 games at home.

The Lions are 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS in their last five games as an underdog.

All NFL odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.

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