Week 1 NFL Picks: Vegas Odds, Prop Bets and Predictions for Opening Schedule

Joe Tansey@JTansey90Featured ColumnistSeptember 9, 2018

FILE - In this Aug. 30, 2018, file photo, New York Giants wide receiver Odell Beckham sprints prior to an NFL football game against the New England Patriots, in East Rutherford. All-Pro cornerback Jalen Ramsey welcomes what might be the most anticipated match-up of his career when the Jaguars open the season at the New York Giants and against star receiver Odell Beckham Jr. (AP Photo/Mark Lennihan, File)
Mark Lennihan/Associated Press

One of the first things NFL fans want to do in Week 1 is throw around money on a multitude of bets as football's dormant period comes to an end. 

There are plenty of good plays out on the board for Sunday and Monday's games, and if betting on the spread and over/under isn't enough for you, there's some intriguing prop bets to take a look at. 

If you're looking to keep it simple and bet off the spread, Baltimore, New Orleans and Green Bay are the heaviest favorites.

If you're in the market for prop bets to cash in on, going after the over/under for individual performances is one of the routes you could go.


Week 1 Schedule and Odds

Sunday, September 9

Buffalo at Baltimore (-7.5) (Over/Under: 39.5)

Cincinnati at Indianapolis (-2.5) (O/U: 48) 

Houston at New England (-6) (O/U: 49.5)

Jacksonville (-3) at New York Giants (O/U: 42) 

Pittsburgh (-4) at Cleveland (O/U: 41) 

San Francisco at Minnesota (-6.5) (O/U: 46)

Tampa Bay at New Orleans (-9.5) (O/U: 49.5) 

Tennessee (-1) at Miami (O/U: 45) 

Kansas City at Los Angeles Chargers (-3) (O/U: 49) 

Dallas at Carolina (-3) (O/U: 42) 

Seattle at Denver (-3) (O/U: 41.5) 

Washington at Arizona (-2) (O/U 43.5) 

Chicago at Green Bay (-7) (O/U: 46.5) 


Monday. September 10 

New York Jets at Detroit (-6.5) (O/U: 45) 

Los Angeles Rams (-4.5) at Oakland (O/U: 48.5)  


Prop Bets

Odell Beckham Jr. Receiving Yards (Over/Under: 67.5

A handful of arguments can be had when discussing Odell Beckham Jr.'s Week 1 production. 

The first thought that comes to mind is Beckham is going to have a monster afternoon against the Jacksonville Jaguars in his first game back from injury.

Sunday could also serve as a game for Beckham to show off after signing his new deal with the New York Giants. 

Bill Kostroun/Associated Press

Conversely, you could say Beckham will struggle because he's facing one of the top secondaries in the NFL led by Jalen Ramsey.

Additionally, the 25-year-old only has 664 receiving yards and four touchdowns in eight September games, and he's found the end zone once in three contests against AFC South opposition.

Given all the factors at play, Beckham should be able to reach 68 receiving yards for the over, but it wouldn't be a terrible idea if you took the risk on the under if you trust Jacksonville's defense.


Ryan Tannehill Passing Yards (Over/Under: 237.5)

Betting on the Miami Dolphins and quarterback Ryan Tannehill isn't appealing, but you might be able to make some money off them if you take the over in this prop bet.

Tannehill's most productive month for passing yards is September, as he's thrown for 4,987 yards and 24 touchdowns. 

MIAMI, FL - AUGUST 25: Ryan Tannehill #17 of the Miami Dolphins in action during a preseason game against the Baltimore Ravens at Hard Rock Stadium on August 25, 2018 in Miami, Florida. (Photo by Mark Brown/Getty Images)
Mark Brown/Getty Images

The 30-year-old is also a prolific thrower against AFC South opposition, as he's recorded the most out-of-division passing yards versus the quartet from the south in his career. 

Add in the fact that Sunday's clash with Tennessee is Tannehill's first game back following his season-ending injury in 2017 and you have a perfect combination for a high level of production in Week 1. 

Combining the over on this prop with a wager on Miami as a one-point home underdog could end up earning you a good chunk of money early Sunday afternoon.



New England 35, Houston 20

If you're looking at a wager on the New England Patriots Sunday, take them to win outright as the favorite and combine that with the over. 

Patriots quarterback Tom Brady is 6-1 in his career against the Houston Texans with 17 touchdowns and four interceptions. 

CHARLOTTE, NC - AUGUST 24:  Tom Brady #12 of the New England Patriots makes a call at the line against the Carolina Panthers in the second quarter during their game at Bank of America Stadium on August 24, 2018 in Charlotte, North Carolina.  (Photo by Str
Streeter Lecka/Getty Images

Although it may sound crazy at first, Brady has something to prove after the Super Bowl defeat and he'll come out firing from the pocket in the season opener. 

Look for Brady to target tight end Rob Gronkowski and wide receiver Chris Hogan the most because of the trust he has in the pair of experienced players. 

With Deshaun Watson back under center, the Texans will be competitive for three quarters before Brady pulls away with some fourth-quarter magic. 

Because of Houston's fearlessness at Gillette Stadium, the over will hit, but the Texans won't be able to cover as a six-point underdog.


Pittsburgh 28, Cleveland 23

Go ahead and admit it, you're thinking about picking the Cleveland Browns to cover, and potentially win outright, because of what you saw on Hard Knocks.

It's okay to admit that out loud, as the Browns enter yet another new era at quarterback with Tyrod Taylor at the helm.

Taylor has a few offensive weapons in wide receiver Jarvis Landry and tight end David Njoku who could wreak havoc on Pittsburgh's secondary. 

Ken Blaze/Associated Press

Add in the mess the Steelers are currently with the Le'Veon Bell discussions and Week 1's trip to First Energy Stadium could be a trap for Mike Tomlin's team.

The Browns haven't beaten the Steelers in their last six matchups, which is something head coach Hue Jackson will use as a motivating tactic to erase the memories of the 0-16 campaign from a year ago.

Although the Browns will play their AFC North rival close, and potentially cover as a four-point underdog, the Steelers will still come out on top with a game-winning drive led by quarterback Ben Roethlisberger.


Other Predictions

Baltimore 21, Buffalo 13

Cincinnati 19, Indianapolis 16

Jacksonville 21, New York Giants 10

Minnesota 34, San Francisco 17

New Orleans 42, Tampa Bay 21

Miami 23, Tennessee 16

Los Angeles Chargers 23, Kansas City 21

Carolina 26, Dallas 19

Denver 20, Seattle 10

Arizona 17, Washington 13

Green Bay 34, Chicago 31

New York Jets 28, Detroit 21

Los Angeles Rams 34, Oakland 10 


Follow Joe on Twitter, @JTansey90.

Odds obtained from OddsShark and OddsChecker.

Statistics obtained from Pro Football Reference.