Jacksonville Jaguars vs. New York Giants Odds, Analysis, NFL Betting Pick

The New York Giants are not exactly early risers. Over the last seven seasons New York is just 1-6 straight up and 1-5-1 against the spread in its season openers.

The Giants open their 2018 season with an inter-conference battle with the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday afternoon in New Jersey.

NFL point spread: The Jaguars opened as three-point favorites; the total was 43.5 early in the week, according to sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark. (Line updates and matchup report)

NFL betting pick, via OddsShark computer: 22.2-20.0 Jaguars (NFL picks on every game)

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Why the Jaguars can cover the spread

The Jaguars came out of almost nowhere to finish 10-6 SU and 9-7 ATS last season. They won the AFC South, beat Buffalo in a wild-card game, then upset the Steelers in Pittsburgh in the divisional round.

In fact, Jacksonville won twice in Pittsburgh last season, making them the only team to ever pull that trick, and they've done it twice. The Jags then nearly beat the Patriots in Foxborough, Massachusetts, in the AFC Championship Game but fell victim to a late New England rally and lost 24-20.

Nonetheless, Jacksonville begins this season with high hopes. The Jags averaged 366 yards per game on offense last year while allowing just 286 YPG on defense. Jacksonville ranked second in the NFL in total yardage at +80 per game.

Why the Giants can cover the spread

New York struggled through a 3-13 campaign last year, but injuries played a big part. The Giants lost their best offensive weapon, wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr., five games in and limped through the rest of the season from there.

But Beckham is back now, and New York added Penn State running back Saquon Barkley with the second pick in the 2018 draft. So the Giants should certainly be better on that side of the ball this year.

Even in its dilapidated state last year, New York lost five games by one score or less, and two of those came against eventual Super Bowl champion Philadelphia.

The Giants also lost three other games that could be categorized as close. With better health and a rejuvenated running game, New York could rebound this season.

Smart betting pick

The Jaguars begin this season trying to avoid the trend of many NFL upstarts over the years to regress following sudden unexpected success.

Two things that help avoid such a fate are a good running game and a good defense, and Jacksonville has both.

The Giants, meanwhile, are operating under a new head coach, with new coordinators on both sides of the ball. New coaching regimes usually come with learning curves, so the smart money here sides with the Jags.

NFL betting trends

The Jaguars are 3-0 ATS in their last three games against the Giants.

The Giants are 1-6 SU and 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games in Week 1.

The total has gone under in seven of the Jaguars' last nine games in the early afternoon.

All NFL odds and betting trends according to Bleacher Report's official odds partner, OddsShark. Check out OddsShark on Twitter and Instagram or head to YouTube for more betting picks and analysis on this week's top games. You can also download the free odds tracker app.